Why Syria will not Fall: Crushing Defeat of "Free Syrian Army"

Sunday 26 August 2012

Why Syria will not Fall: Crushing Defeat of "Free Syrian Army"

Sunday, 26 August 2012 12:27

by Ghaleb Kandil New Orient Center for Strategic Policies August 25, 2012

(translated from Arabic by vijayvaani.com)

The recent developments in Syria revealed a series of important signs which will have decisive repercussions over the course of the global war led by the United States to destroy this country. Unlike the information and impressions of American strategists and their European and Arab accomplices - as conveyed by hundreds of media outlets engaged in the battle - the death squads, mercenaries and Takfiri groups introduced from all parts of the world suffered a crushing defeat at the level of the battles. Nonetheless, the Turkish officials and their Qatari and Saudi allies had promised – as they have already done last year and during the same period - that the month of Ramadan will witness the fall of the resisting regime in Syria. These illusions have once again collapsed on the battlefield where the armed gangs suffered the fall of thousands of dead, wounded and detainees.

Indeed, the comprehensive attack launched by the extremists against Damascus ended – even with the recognition of Western media outlets - with massive losses. Hence, the force which included local mercenaries and jihadists from around the world was completely annihilated by the Syrian army that is pursuing the remnants on the outskirts of the capital. As a result, tons of weapons were confiscated and the heavy infrastructure of the armed groups was dismantled and destroyed, which will require months to reconstruct if the armed groups are ever able to do so.

The outcome of the Aleppo battle on the other hand is known in advance, as the extremists are falling by the thousands in the face of the methodic progress of the army which was able to fully sever the supply lines of the mercenaries who came from the training camps led by the CIA in Turkey.

Consequently, the armed gangs can no longer deliver reinforcements without having to pay a hefty price. As to their 4x4 convoys which are equipped with heavy artillery and were offered by their regional sponsors, they are moving under the fire of the army’s helicopters and aircrafts and are falling in the ambushes set up by the elite forces that have infiltrated enemy lines.

According to experts, one third of the extremist groups are composed of jihadists who have come from the Arab Maghreb, Libya, the Gulf, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Chechnya. At this level, European Union Intelligence Chief French national Patrice Bergamini recognized in an interview with the Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar on Friday 17 August the important role played by the jihadists at the level of the Syrian conflict, stressing that the Western public was now aware of the threat they represented. It is clear that the Syrian army’s cleansing of the city of Aleppo and its countryside is now a mere question of time.

The crushing defeat suffered by the armed gangs throughout Syria reveals that the Syrian Arab army which was built on solid ideological bases quickly drew the lessons of the war and developed strategies of urban and rural counter-guerilla, which allowed it to strike the extremists despite the massive military, material, financial and media means that were generously offered to them by the coalition of dozens of countries, not to forget the sanctions adopted against the Syrian people and state outside the context of the United Nations.

In order to understand the developments of the situation, it is also important to analyze the Syrian people’s state of mind. Without real popular backup –which is naturally disregarded by Western media outlets - President Bashar al-Assad and his army would not have been able to resist and deter this attack.

This popular support is due to three factors.

Firstly, the majority of the Syrians are aware of the fact that their country is targeted by a plot aiming at subjugating Syria to include it in the Western imperialistic camp and consequently remove it from all the regional equations, knowing that during these last four decades, Syria has been at the heart of the balances of power and that nothing could be done in the Middle East without its knowledge and participation.

These wide popular factions are attached to their country’s political autonomy and are willing to fight to defend it, which would explain why thousands of young people are volunteering to join the army’s ranks.

On the other hand, the experts believe that twenty percent of the public - which at some point sympathized with the opposition - discovered the real face of the extremists who are multiplying their savageries in the regions under their control (rape, executions, massacres, pillaging…).

In light of this transformation affecting the popular mood, especially in the rural areas where the people have become sick and tired, the Syrian state has put in place discreet communication means allowing the population to inform the army about the presence of terrorists, which would explain how and why during these last few weeks, the special units and the air force were able to successfully carry out well designed strikes against the bases of the armed gangs.

In parallel to all the developments on the ground, Damascus’ regional and international allies are showing stringency and developing political and diplomatic initiatives to avoid leaving the arena open before the Westerners.

At this level, the success of the meeting in Tehran between thirty countries, including China, India, Russia, nine Arab countries and Latin American and South African states, conveys this new balance of power. The formation of this group constituted a strong message to the Westerners and seriously jeopardized their project to establish – outside the context of the United Nations – a no-fly zone in the northern part of Syria.

The last few months of 2012 will be decisive at the level of the emergence of new regional and international balances and the drawing up of a new image starting from Damascus, thanks to the victory of the Syrian national state in the global war led against it.

Fast-moving developments

Until the American presidential elections which will be held at the beginning of November, the Syrian internal, regional and international developments will grow faster than ever before. Obviously, foreign military intervention whether from inside or outside the Security Council is off the table, while the sanctions have reached their highest levels as long as Chapter VII is being deterred by the veto right.

Following the American presidential elections, we will see the materialization of American political headlines and especially NATO, Turkish and Gulf ones, in parallel to the repercussions that will affect the military machine used across the border and from inside the Syrian territories.

Hence, there should either be a recognition of the impossibility to introduce change at the level of Syria’s geography and role which should prompt preparations for serious negotiations and for political solutions – that are rejected by the Americans who are refusing to respond to the invitation addressed by Russia to meet – or sustain the war alliance and the mobilization of the state of hostility from all directions, i.e. from the Mecca conference to the visit of the French foreign minister to Syria’s neighboring states to assemble as many pressure cards as possible.

There will be no buffer zones and no air embargoes, rather efforts to completely isolate certain border regions from the state’s control in order to test the chances of establishing mini-states, similar to the ones established by Saad Haddad and Antoine Lahd under Israeli tutelage in South Lebanon. At this level, the wager is on Aleppo’s countryside to which all those who sold their honor among the dissidents will be introduced following preparations in Doha, Riyadh and Amman to grant legitimacy in form to the division project.

On the other hand, Lakhdar Brahimi was appointed as envoy and mediator for the political solution and the observers mission was ended to prepare the arena for all possibilities. Brahimi will thus spend time touring before a decision is adopted, while Syria is standing fast with its army and people and drawing up - starting from Aleppo and its countryside - the course of the upcoming change.