Excellent post
by 'b'
at moonofalabama today, including an ominous warning by our friend WP
Lang (aka. Mon Colonel); (IMO, it will not happen.)
"...Jon
Williams is foreign editor for the BBC. A few hours ago he tweeted:
'Some NATO allies growing suspicious of #Turkey. Fear
Istanbul provoking #Syria. One official says Damascus "v restrained" in
circumstances!'
Those NATO
allies are not alone in growing suspicious. Abdullah Bozkurt is Bureau-in-Chief
of the Turkish Today's Zaman newspaper. That paper is part of the Gülen movement
and in general friendly with the current Turkish AKP government. Bozkurt also
has extensive experience has Today's Zaman U.S. correspondent. His latest column
is headlined: The pro-war lobby rallies in
Turkey
'... It should be obvious by now that there is a
pro-war lobby in the Turkish capital, one that is itching for a major
confrontation with Syria and one that also has considerable influence over the
government decision making process. This lobby is determined to drag Turkey into
an adventurous conflict with Syria, one that is certain to escalate into
region-wide hostilities with traditional backers of the Bashar al-Assad regime
facing off with Turkey in the proxy of the Syrian swamp.
The relentless war lobby is after a “fait
accompli” to commit the government and the country to a permanent war in Syria,
but is afraid of the repercussions of presenting such a plan in the
public...'
Bozkurt does
not give any names but points at certain other interests that might want to get
a war going:
' ... The last thing Obama
wants at this point is a Syrian crisis spiraling out of control that would put
him in a weak spot in regard to his Republican challenger. Maybe that is exactly what the war lobby in Ankara
wants. Creating an outrageous incident in response to which
Turkey would feel the need to invoke Article 5 of the NATO military alliance,
the clause on collective defense, might force Obama into a corner on the eve of
presidential elections and prompt an American intervention....
'
I can think of
some blowhart in Tel Aviv who would like to have Obama defeated and who might
have the capabilities to order up some event, a certain "Syrian provocation"
that kills many Turks but which's origin would be rather mysterious, that would
allow the Turkish pro-war lobby to achieve its "fait
accompli". But,
as Bozkurt writes, a war over Syria would not be confined to Syria. It would
have disastrous consequences. As the military Middle East expert Pat
Lang remarked (in the comment section of KC's piece in
SST)
'... A "Guns of August' scenario is quite possible in
which Syria, Hizbullah Russia and Iran line up against NATO, Israel and the US.
The catastrophic implications of such an evolution are
obvious...'
Any serious
event on the Turkish Syrian border could now be an October surprise to unleash a Guns of
August like situation. It is not something anyone in this world should wish
for."
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