Saudi Arabia’s Five Challenging Facts in 2015: Report

Wednesday, 23 December 2015

Saudi Arabia’s Five Challenging Facts in 2015: Report

Local Editor

2015 was a challenging year for Saudi Arabia, The Time said in a report, detailing the events which offered a snapshot of the Saudi kingdom’s troubled trajectory.

“World powers, led by the country’s ostensible ally the United States, struck a nuclear deal that is set to rejuvenate Saudi’s rival Iran. Wars in Syria and Yemen continued to destabilize the region. And the price of oil continued to fall,” said the report published by the American daily last week.

The War in Syria

Mohammad Bin Salman and Mohammad Bin Nayef

Mohammad Bin Salman and Mohammad Bin Nayef

“The Saudis desperately want to see the ouster of Bashar Assad but they won’t commit ground troops to the fight. The roughly 2,500 Saudis who have left to join ISIL are also giving Riyadh cause for concern. For the time being, though, Saudis have decided to support the Syrian war effort from afar.”

The War in Yemen

“Given how poorly the Saudi intervention in Yemen is going, it may be wise for Riyadh to sit Syria out. Houthi rebels have taken control of the Yemeni capital, which is unacceptable to Riyadh,” the report said referring to Ansarullah revolutionaries who are backing the Yemeni army in confronting the Saudi-led aggression against Yemen.

“The world’s fourth-highest military spender must not have expected its operations in Yemen to go so poorly. But Saudi Arabia, like the US, is learning the hard way that clear military superiority doesn’t translate easily into military victory in today’s Middle East.”

Falling Oil Prices

“But it is Iran’s return to world oil markets that may pose the biggest threat to Saudi influence. Tehran is expected to bring an additional 1.5 million barrels of oil a day back to the market by the end of 2016. The world is already facing an oil supply glut as the Saudi-influenced OPEC—which controls one-third of global oil—continues to maintain oil production in an attempt to price out competitors from the market, especially shale oil in North America.”

“But preserving its market share has come at great cost to Saudi Arabia, both financially and politically. Oil accounts for 80 percent of the Saudi government’s budget revenues, 90 percent of its export earnings, and 45 percent of its overall GDP.”

Succession and the Deputy Crown Prince

The cabinet reshuffle made by King Salman poses a challenging fact to the royal family in the Kingdom.

“The biggest story in Saudi domestic politics this year was the appointment of 30-year old Mohammad bin Salman to the critical role of defense minister and deputy crown prince, making him second in line to the throne. It’s the first time in modern Saudi history that power has been concentrated in a single branch of the royal family, who number more than 15,000 overall.”

“Salman’s youth has also raised eyebrows as age has always been a “preeminent qualification” in determining who ascends to the throne.”

“Salman has been aggressive in reshuffling leadership positions in the government to shore up his own power base. 2016 is shaping up to be a big year for internal Saudi power struggles, at a time when the region can least afford them,” the report added.

Saudi Elections: Women Now Welcome

The report considered women’s participation in the Saudi elections as “good news”.

“Now for a rare bit of good news. Last weekend’s municipal council elections were the first time women were allowed to both vote and run in Saudi elections. Of the 7,000 candidates, 979 of them were women; 20 women ended up winning seats. That means of the roughly 2,100 municipal council seats that were contested, less than 1 percent went to women. Not exactly a sea change, but for the only country in the world where women are prohibited from driving, it’s progress.”