Uprooted Palestinians are at the heart of the conflict in the M.E Palestinians uprooted by force of arms. Yet faced immense difficulties have survived, kept alive their history and culture, passed keys of family homes in occupied Palestine from one generation to the next.
of Jarndyce Booksellers. Jarndyce specializes in first editions, rare books, and wonderful collectors’ editions of the complete works of Shakespeare, Dickens, and countless others. Also displayed in the store are enormous antique illustrated copies of the Bible. These mammoth books are beautifully adorned with illustrations that bring Biblical characters and stories to life.
I remember sitting as a child, leafing through an old, illustrated copy of a Bible that was part of my father’s book collection. It too had wonderful illustrations, and I would sit there and look at the pictures of the great men and women, and experience the great moments that are described in the Bible. The angel who stopped Abraham as he was about to sacrifice his son; Moses coming down from Mount Sinai; the young David slaying the giant Goliath, and so many more. They all came alive in front of my very eyes and it was as clear to me as a child as it is today and to so many others, that those stories describe real historic events.
These lovely renditions were intended to create the impression that the Bible tells stories that are historically true. They lead readers and even those who do not read but hear the stories and look at the illustrations, to believe that these were real people and real events that took place.
US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman speaks at the opening of an “ancient road” that cuts into the Palestinian neighborhood of Silwan. Tsafrir Abayov | AP
It is easy enough to point to an ancient city in Palestine, say Bethlehem or Jerusalem or some corner of the desert near Bi’r Saba, and claim that a particular Biblical event took place there. This literal reading of the Bible, and particularly of the Old Testament, has given and continues to give Zionism enormous impetus.
Zionists rely on millions of people across the world who have been misled to believe that there is historical truth to the Bible, who think that today’s Israel is the true and rightful successor of Biblical Israel and who allow Zionists to claim the Bible as their actual history book.
Mythology religion and history
The Greeks and the Nordic people replaced their ancient indigenous mythologies with Christianity, retaining their mythology as a part of their cultural history. In India, ancient mythology is very much alive and ancient gods are still worshiped in temples throughout the country, yet that is never confused with India’s actual history. Vishnu is never confused with Ashoka or Buddha with Akbar. Each has its respective place within the rich Indian culture.
Neither the people of Greece, the Nordic people, or even those who practice various faiths in India regard their mythology as history. You will not find Greek archaeologists digging to find the home of Zeus. There are no signs that the Nordic people are searching for the ancient city where Odin and Thor resided, and even in India, where the ancient gods are very much part of life, there is no expectation that the city of Shiva will be dug up by archaeologists.
his is because the separation between myth and religion and history is clear, except in the case of Zionism. Zionists, both Christian and Jewish, firmly hold to their demand that the Bible is history. Archeologists working in the name of Zionists have been digging up Palestine for two centuries, often ignoring or even destroying valuable artifacts that do not serve their purpose.
This is because Zionist archeologists are motivated not by scientific curiosity, but by a political agenda. They ignore the wealth of history and archeology that exist in Palestine and search for proof of their own theories.
Destruction of monuments
The need to validate Zionist claims that connect current day Israel with the ancient Hebrews and the glorified mythology as it is presented in parts of the Old Testament often comes at the expense of important historical sites and monuments. In fact, is not uncommon to see invaluable historical sites destroyed by design at the hands of Zionist institutions.
The Mamilla Cemetery is one such example. It is an ancient Muslim burial ground and holy site in the center of Jerusalem believed to date back to the seventh century. Numerous saints of the Sufi faith and thousands of officials, scholars, notables, and Jerusalem families have been buried in the cemetery over the past 1,000 years.
Companions of the Prophet Muhammad were said to be buried there, but since the Zionist conquest of West Jerusalem, the cemetery has fallen into disrepair, with ancient tombstones destroyed and desecrated. Over the last decade, a significant portion of the cemetery has been razed and human remains have been desecrated so that the Simon Wiesenthal Center can build a facility, shamelessly called the Museum of Tolerance.
The Mamilla Cemetery, shown here in a 1951 aerial photo, sat undistributed for centuries until the Israeli government paved the way for the construction of the Museum of Tolerance atop its historic ruins
Since 2010, the Center for Constitutional Rights and the Campaign to Preserve Mamilla Cemetery have worked to halt the construction of the new facility and preserve what remains of the ancient site. To this end, petitions have been filed with various UN bodies, including UNESCO, to protect the sacred site.
The “Museum of Tolerance,” as it is called, has resulted in the disinterment of hundreds of graves, and the whereabouts of the countless human remains that have been disposed of are unknown. Recognized as one of the most prominent Muslim cemeteries in the world, where seventy thousand warriors of Saladin’s armies are interred, is now all but gone.
Bab al-Rahmeh is yet another famous Islamic cemetery in Jerusalem. It extends from Lions Gate to the end of the wall of Al-Aqsa Mosque near the Umayyad palaces in the south. The Israeli government is in the process of confiscating parts of the cemetery to implement a settlement project. Plans include creating, “paths of biblical gardens,” once again erasing historical sites in order to build monuments to commemorate a history that never was.
Another classic example of the destruction of real history for the sake of mythology is the opening of the so-called “Temple’s Baptism station” on the historic land of the Umayyad palaces in the Old City of Jerusalem. The Temple in question is the Jewish Temple and the Umayyad palaces on which it is to be built date back nearly 1,400 years, built in the early stage of the Islamic period, and used to house the Islamic Caliphs and institutions that managed the affairs of Jerusalem and the Al-Aqsa Mosque.
Monuments in disrepair
Zionist authorities have not only destroyed precious historical sites in search of mythical ones, they have also allowed invaluable historical sites to fall into disrepair. There are countless such sites throughout Palestine, such as the mosque of Dhaher Al-Umar in Tabariya, which now stands alone, in ruins, a solitary witness to the glorious Arab past of the city.
Daher al-Umar was a Palestinian leader who ruled most of Palestine and shaped its history throughout the entire 18th century. Not only has his memory been erased, but the monuments that carry his name and still exist now lay in ruins.
The mythology of the Old Testament was turned into history through a successful attempt to make the stories and the figures in these stories, mythical as they may have been, into actual historical events and figures. At the same time, the real history of Palestine, a glorious history of culture and religion, politics, commerce, and unmatched art and architecture, has all but been lost so that Zionists can claim that they are the true successors of Joshua and King David.
There is no harm in enjoying the wonderful illustrations that adorn the Bible, the likes of which one finds at Jarndyce Bookseller. In fact, I intend to continue to visit that store whenever I can and enjoy those wonderful renditions of Old and the New Testament stories. However, we must be careful not to confuse those stories and the illustrations with the actual history of Palestine.
A warrior’s soul sleeps in his fist. Wakes in his fist. Till his dying breath, will exist in his fist.
No gun and no mortal danger can unfold this fist. A warrior will live and die with his fist clenched.
This is not for love of violence nor for the thrills of war. Not because of a demented passion for death either. This is because a warrior knows that even in times of peace, evil and evil-doers lurk in the shadow of peace.
Warriorship is vocational. It is non-mercenary. Non-materialistic. Non-negotiable. True warriorhood is purely defensive. It is fixated solely on the protection of a higher justice and defense of self and the meek. It is never predatory. A warrior is steeped in a culture of righteous dignity and martyrdom. Humble dignity. And a sacred martyrdom. A true warrior is not an ordinary soldier, nor a celebrated figure from either media or mythology. A true warrior is real. And rare. A true warrior is the only class of human capable of kissing death right in the eyeball. There is no fear of the infinite black void in the heart of a true warrior.
Throughout history, cultures under duress and attack by covetous enemies have produced their own brand of warrior. Native American Indians gave us the ‘Braves’. Japan gave us the ‘Samurai’. France gave us Joan of Arc. Africa gave us ‘Warrior Queen Amina’. And modern Lebanon has given us, Hezbollah.
Hezbollah: currently the world’s most successful warrior-resistor group fighting against the most malevolent of all modern abominations, otherwise known as the Axis of Evil (US, Israel, and their Western and Arab-Wahabi allies). Hezbollah is also currently the most reviled of all warriors. This is because unable to defeat Hezbollah on the battlefield, and after already spending some $11 billion on many failed coups and smear campaigns this past decade, the Axis of Evil is now reduced to merely attacking Hezbollah with malicious lies and false accusations. To demonize Hezbollah, to sully their immaculate reputation in a vast and global media campaign is about the only weapon left in the hands of the Axis of Evil. This defamation offensive may work on some uninformed people, but indeed it will not weaken Hezbollah’s phenomenal abilities on the battlefield. This agitating agitprop will not change any facts on the ground. It will be but more of your tax dollars wasted on a chimera.
Hezbollah is noble, yet not royal. Its warriors and leaders are essentially from working-class, farming communities who grouped themselves to repel a vicious, colonial and genocidal invader, otherwise known as Israel. Some thirty years after the birth of their resistance group, Hezbollah remain exceptionally humble and profoundly rooted in their modest beginnings. Even though Hezbollah has lost warriors in combat, the number of its martyrs has been relatively low, and it has yet to lose a single battle or war in its 30+ years of existence. And despite its stellar successes on the battlefield, Hezbollah remains unostentatious and merciful in victory. Most notable and impressive of all, Hezbollah’s leadership does not practice chicanery, skullduggery or monkeyshines. They simply do not lie. Not once has its leadership deceived or duped its fighters, its allies or supporters. Consistently true to their word, even Israeli Jewish citizens, according to Israeli polls, believe what Hezbollah’s leadership says above their own leaders in Tel Aviv. This is because time and time again, what Hezbollah says simply and truly ‘is’, and what it promises, it always delivers. And, indeed, it has outsmarted its bulkier enemy at every turn of the road and delivered.
All their battles have been for defensive reasons. ALL of them. They are exceptionally well-disciplined and focused on the task of righteous liberation from cruel and oppressive forces. Their training system produces no traitors and no Mammonites easily seduced by the lure of wealth, physical pleasures, or political status. They are therefore beyond blackmail. Beyond distraction from their cause. Steeped in a culture of martyrdom that’s inspired by the prophet Mohammad’s grandson Hussein and his agonizing martyrdom, a passion-cause and agony that’s parallel to the martyrdom culture of the Christian prophet Jesus, Hezbollah’s warriors are beyond the corruption of soul.
Their training is two-pronged. They are trained in agile guerilla combat, while simultaneously taught a righteous philosophy that in essence is religio-spiritual. A philosophy inspired by their fundamental belief in a just and compassionate god, a god who rewards the faithful and true. This is precisely what distinguishes them from other armies: their absolute philosophical and physical commitment to a righteous god. Although deeply religious and strictly committed to Islam, they are remarkably tolerant of other sects, other faiths and cultures, as exampled by their recent willing martyrdom in defense of Syrian Sunnis, Druze and Alawites, as well as their heroic defense of Christian villages and their ancient Churches in the Levant. Hezbollah warriors have sacrificed their own lives to liberate the very progeny of the original Christians of the world who still reside in the Levant; liberate them from Western and Israeli-backed ISISian terrorists and invaders. Worth mentioning here too, according to a Lebanese General I spoke to, is that Hezbollah are also the protectors of the last remaining Jewish synagogue and its community in Lebanon, numbered at approximately 400 Lebanese adherents. Perhaps here it’s also germane to add that during their wars against Israel, Hezbollah’s leadership have even earnestly embraced and supported the resistance efforts of godless Lebanese communist groups fighting against the invading Jewish army. They have broken bread with and befriended the godless and the godfull alike in the name of fighting and deterring a genocidal and kleptomaniac enemy. Hezbollah remains bonded and intimately close to other Lebanese resistance groups, even in times of peace. Their friendships are always genuine, devoid of exploitative and fickle realpolitik. They are interested and concerned with uniting their countryfolk, not dividing or dominating them. They support a peaceful and equitable co-existence between the 18 legally recognized religions and sects of the Lebanon, whose population count is currently at 6.825 million. It is of historic record that they have even given immunity to Lebanese traitors who colluded with Israel during its 18 year occupation of Lebanon.
Hezbollah follows strict moral rules of war that do not allow for the wanton killing of the enemy: repulsion of enemy and not massacre of enemy is their first and foremost tactic – and if this proves insufficient, then annihilating their enemy becomes a permissible and sanctified necessity. Their Islamic rules of war insist on the humanitarian treatment of POW’s and Hezbollah always obliges. They are trained to be impeccably well-mannered towards their captives: trained not just in strategic guerilla warfare, but also educated in the lofty principles of charity and mercy toward the captured and repentant. They do not abuse victory by claiming sole power: they believe in power-sharing with their compatriots, even with those who never stepped foot on the battlefield.
Hezbollah is supreme, yet evidently not supremacist.
They never break their laws of war for fear of their god. They would rather literally die than break these laws that displease their god. They follow their religio-philosophical and military protocol with absolute precision; and they practice devoted respect and trust in the righteousness of their commanders and cause. Extrajudicial executions are forbidden, and so is the unjustified assault on their enemy. They do not shoot at unarmed women, children or men either. They do not target the handicapped sitting in their wheelchairs like the Israeli army and other Jewish security apparatuses regularly do. They do not invade, they liberate. Hezbollah is a reactive and defensive resistor and not an army of usurpers and psychopaths hellbent on mass murder and the looting of what is not rightfully theirs.
Their resistance culture is humanist. Through and through.
They strive for a just and peaceful world, no matter the cost to their own lives. Indeed, they live for martyrdom; they yearn for martyrdom in the cause of a just and peaceful world. They rank martyrdom as the absolute highest achievement in life.
“We don’t fear death as our death is martyrdom. Martyrdom means eternally living close to our god. Living close to god is the ultimate point in the ascension of mankind: cannot be achieved except through martyrdom” – a Hezbollah warrior.
There is a trinity of principles contained in Hezbollah’s martyrdom philosophy. They are willing to die for three principled notions: for god, for family, and for nation. They live and die for nothing else but for god, family and nation. I can’t stress enough how important their triadic life-philosophy is for them. As faith-filled warriors, they do not ever separate from this soulful philosophy, or ever discard it while at war or even during peace time – not even momentarily, not even for a nano second. Their martyrdom philosophy is their very oxygen. Their very spine. They are consistent in their profound commitment to their divine, triangular philosophy. This is the mother of absolutes for them. This supplies them with infinite, fearless courage. This inspires their attachment and love of righteous, disciplined behavior and focused intent. This provides them with infinite determination; with boundless physical and mental legerity. During warfare training, and on the battlefield and off, they remain intimately connected to this inspirational triangle of motives. In their universe, the muscle, the moral and the divine are eternally wedded. This is the very reason behind their unbroken record of victories and their continuing and increased strength and popularity across the world.
Hezbollah reveres their god above all else – their supernal god sits atop their spiritual pyramid, directly linked below to the two sacred earthly duties of protecting family and nation. Hezbollah warriors value this triadic configuration above even their own lives. They connect their earthly duties towards family and nation directly to the service of their celestial god. Their god requires their unflinching faith and their protection of ‘tribe and land’, and Hezbollah warriors, they are willingly servants who selflessly submit to the absolute reverence of god and protection of family and nation. This noble aegis pleases their god: Hezbollah warriors live for nothing but to please their god, therefore they will never break or dissolve the divine contract they’ve undertaken with their god. Their enemy should be aware and beware: they will actively neutralize any and all threats to this divine equation – even at the cost of their own lives. This is their only mission on earth: reverence of god, defense and protection of family and land. This is Hezbollah’s manifesto in a nutshell. Nothing less than that. Nothing beyond that.
Their resistance model and system has gained much traction and spread outside of their Levantean locale: from the punishing dunes of Yemen and all the way to South America, from the Fertile Crescent and right across the continent of Asia, Hezbollah’s resistance model has spread and continues to be received with open arms, much to the chagrin of their pernicious, defeated enemies.
Hezbollah’s other unique quality is that of sober patience. They are exceptionally adept at the art of patience: their carpet-weaving Iranian friends have taught them this necessary life-skill and they’ve artfully applied this mental discipline to all their war and battle strategies. Believing their faith in their god is permanent and unbreakable, yet everything worldly is changeable, they therefore patiently play the long game against their enemy with utter confidence and evident success.
Yet, despite all the above factual and admirable qualities, their enemies and their enemies’ global media megaphones label Hezbollah as ‘narco-terrorist’ and ‘Islamic terrorist’. Accusing the Hezbollah of trafficking drugs is no different in absurdity than accusing Mother Teresa of global heroin-trading. Everyone who knows Hezbollah’s MO knows that their warriors and their leadership live a clean and sober life. They do not even drop f-bombs or cuss dirty words at their enemy. They are as clean-tongued and clean-living, as humble and ‘gracious as the morn’. Knowing the lifestyle and philosophy that Hezbollah strictly adheres to on the battlefield and off, it is simply inconceivable that Hezbollah would displease their god by running local and international drug rings that ruin people’s lives, break up families and weaken nations. This preposterous accusation belongs to the long list of perfidious lies manufactured by their enemies, who themselves, in fact, participate in international drug trading and trafficking, with the CIA running the lucrative global opium trade of Afghanistan, and the Mossad running the global Ecstasy drug trade in Europe and America.
Unable thus to find a military Achilles’s heel and character fault in their MO, Hezbollah’s enemies have produced a long litany of alleged crimes without ever providing even a single shred of evidence of wrongdoing. Hezbollah’s enemies have added Hezbollah’s good name to their infamously politicized ‘terrorist list’ without even once providing proof and irrefutable substantiation of terrorist activity. Let us here together therefore look at this list of accusations below – and please you will be mindful that if Hezbollah terrorism against the US were in fact true, that there exists actual evidence of Hezbollah terrorism against the United States, Lebanon, especially the south of Lebanon where Hezbollah is based, would have already received a decisive and fatal American ‘Shock and Awe’ treatment.
There is absolutely no proof whatsoever that Hezbollah’s leadership has ever ordered or committed the following: the 1983 truck bombing on the US embassy in Beirut; as well as the bombing of US and French barracks in the same year. The bombing of a restaurant near the US Air force base in Torrejon, Spain; the car bombing of the US embassy annex in Beirut; and the hijacking of a Kuwait Airlines plane – all in the year 1984. The hijacking of TWA flight #847 in 1985. The abduction and execution of three Lebanese Jews in 1986, under the pseudonym of the ‘Organization of the Oppressed on Earth’. The murder of three Saudi diplomats in 1988. The assassination of a Saudi secretary in Bangkok in 1989. The assassination of two more Saudi diplomats and a telex operator at the Saudi embassy in Bangkok in 1990; as well as the kidnapping and murder of a Saudi businessman in Bangkok in the same year. The murder of Ehud Sadan, a security chief at the Israeli embassy in Ankara; as well as the bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires back in 1992. The failed attempted murder of a Turkish-Jewish community leader in Istanbul in 1993. The failed attempt at car-bombing the Israeli embassy in Thailand; and the suicide bombing of the Argentine Jewish Mutual Association building in Buenos Aires – all in year 1984. The truck bombing at the US portion of the Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia in 1996. The assassination of former Lebanese PM, Rafic Hariri, in 2005. The attack on a bus in Bulgaria that was full of Israeli vacationers back in 2012. And many, many more ‘failed this and attempted that’ terrorism activities falsely pinned on Hezbollah by no less than its enemy Israel and its agents in the US and Europe, and by its gruesome Wahabi-Arabian foes.
A handful of the above false and politicized accusations are on a continuous rotation in the Jewish and Western media, yet not even a semblance of proof is ever provided to the reading public. Relying on Islamophobic media trends, these accusations of terrorism are published and republished over and over again, in the hope that hearsay will eventually prevail as fact in the minds of reasonable people. In other words, the above allegations are nothing but propagandistic slings and arrows aimed at demonizing an undefeated and righteous resistance group. Interestingly, despite these aggressive propaganda operations against the Hezbollah, neither its fighting skills or vigor have been damped, nor have these misinformation assaults halted the spread of its popularity around the the world. Even the military academies of its enemies, in silent admiration now include the study of Hezbollah’s supreme tactics and warfare strategies in their curriculum, thus confirming the high caliber of their fighting skills and war philosophy. One cannot separate Hezbollah’s war strategies from the foundation of their humanist philosophy. Both are always employed in tandem. Hezbollah always leave an exit passage for their enemy to retreat through during an ambush.
Hezbollah receives enthusiastic moral support from Muslim as well as non-Muslim nations. From Eastern and from some Western nations. Hezbollah is respected, loved and revered in the four corners of the world – including appreciation by some citizens in enemy nations who are mentally unmolested by their State propaganda. This is not just because humans by nature love an undefeated war hero. This is because the humble Hezbollah has successfully established itself as an army of the people, by the people, for the people. And here lies the essence of its true popularity. A Lebanese force of good that’s comprised ‘of the people, by the people, for the people’ is no different than the beloved American constitutional motto of a government ‘of the people, by the people, for the people’. What Hezbollah has achieved for its nation and for its compatriots as a resistance group, American politicians are yet to actually demonstrate and realize for the benefit of the American people.
Why is that?
This is because the Lebanese have clearly defined their enemy as Israel, whereas the American collective has yet to identify its insidious internal enemy as ‘Jewish power’. Jewish power that has risen through unsavory and un-American tribal cronyism, nepotism, blackmail and coercion. Jewish supremacy that has been blatantly dominant of American life internally and American foreign policy internationally for the past 60+ years (since the Kennedy assassination, in fact). Jewish power that has essentially been corrosive and disfiguring of American traditional life domestically, and ruinous upon its purse and reputation internationally. But, if the Lebanese can so successfully circumvent and repeatedly defeat abusive Jewish power, then so can Americans who live under the boot of an overtly anti-democratic Jewish occupation. The recent shredding of our beloved First Amendment is but the latest victim of Jewish tyranny, and an undeniable expression of their hate of our democracy.
But, for Americans to liberate themselves, they first need to overcome all the gauntlets and weapons of mass distraction, all the social-engineering and numerous other dumbing-down projects that American elite Jews and their lobby have insidiously imposed on American citizen and politician alike. For Americans to be truly free and independent, and they are a captive people at present, they need to first bypass all the Jewish-engineered and sponsored divisions inside of America. Divisions like Identitarian politics, race-baiting and race disharmony, Jewish-owned Hollywood’s demonization of traditional American values, Neoliberalism, globalism, the Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Mainstream media, most of Altmedia – and the long list goes on. They also need to discard and rebel against imposed mental pollutants like the mandatory teaching of the fake Anne Frank book in their schools; and most certainly, they also need to reject the funding of all those hideous Holocaust museums that operate to enable ongoing Jewish crimes against Americans by portraying the Jews as the ‘eternal victims with special needs’. All these holocaust museums are no more than propaganda factories paid for by your own tax dollars, not by Israeli Shekels or by private Jewish donations. It is the height of absurdity that Americans should be paying for their own brainwash and mental enslavement. Americans need to, ABOVE ALL, reclaim their First Amendment right that’s been hijacked and recently ripped to shreds by Jewish power. Americans need to regain their freedom of speech and be able to call a spade, a spade, and a Jew, a Jew.
There is no understating how many Jewish chains are already wrapped around the American mind and body. That’s your individual mind and body I speak of.
Begs the question here: where is your dignity and self-respect, dear American? Where is your honor and warriorhood? Where are the fruits of your labor that you’ve invested in your family and country year after year? It is not in your own hands, and it is not being spent on your community either. The Jewish lobby has made sure that your freedom and your tax dollars go first and foremost and directly towards serving the state of Israel. The Jewish lobby has killed your democracy, created social devastation right across the nation and fleeced your hard-earned tax dollars to benefit the klepto and oppressive state of Israel. The Jewish lobby has been treating you no different than a nation of slaves it socially engineers and owns. Presently, America is not in a state of justice and grace. Americans of all colors and stripes are not a free people. America is no longer ‘the beautiful’. America is under occupation by tribal Jewish power. And the Lebanese? The Lebanese, despite their mountain of current internal crisis, are in fact living a well-earned liberated life. The bruised Lebanese are in fact a freer people than the Americans are. A life of freedom from occupation gifted to them by the consistently vigilant and sacrificial Hezbollah. Hezbollah the patriot. Hezbollah, the beautiful.
When will citizens of the West and of America realize that Hezbollah is by far more on their side than the tax-fleecing, warmongering Zion? After all, Hezbollah exists to liberate, not to rob the Mints of Europe and America, not to warmonger for wars of choice that cost mega dollars and Euros and rivers of blood. And most certainly, Hezbollah does not in any measure oppress the Western people’s rights to freedom of speech – a right that the Israel lobbies of Europe and America are fixated on denying the people.
Where is your own Hezbollah, dear American? Where is your resistance to your occupier? Where is your resisting mind? Your resisting vote? Your resisting words? Your resisting art? Your resisting gun?
As an American expat witnessing the damage and dire divisions inflicted on our society by Jewish elites, I advise you not turn your guns against one another. This is absolutely a ruinous folly. This is what your insidious occupier is betting on. Your division emboldens and empowers them. To fleece more out of you for the sake of Israel, the enemy in your midst needs you further divided and weaker. Do not submit, but do circumvent. Circumvention through unity. You do not have to love one another to death, but you do have to unite and resist against your enemy within if a life of freedom, peace and prosperity is what you think you deserve. Unite despite your differences. Unite despite your rage. This is your key to liberation.
‘By deception thou shalt do war’. This is the Israeli motto.
‘Live free or die’. This is an American motto. It is also a Hezbollah motto.(Republished from Plato’s Guns by permission of author or representative)
Hezbollah drone flew over the occupied territories’ Galilee and returned safely to Lebanon despite high alert among the ranks of the Israeli occupation army last October, a report said on Thursday.
Lebanese Daily Al-Akhbar reported that a Hezbollah drone managed to enter the airspace of occupied Palestine on October 26 as the Israeli occupation army was on high alert and waging the so-called “Lethal Arrow” maneuver.
“The maneuver was accompanied with high activity by the Israeli air force,” the Lebanese daily said.
“One of the maneuver’s goals was to prevent drones from getting into the Palestinian airspace,” Al-Akhbar said, highlighting the paradox.
The drone managed to capture photos and footage of the occupied region of Galilee and then returned to its base in Lebanon safely, the daily revealed.
Al-Manar will broadcast the photos and scenes captured by the drone in the last episode of “The Second Liberation” documentary series.
On October 25, the “Israeli” army launched a massive five-day drill dubbed ‘Lethal Arrow’. They were simulating a multi-front war with a special focus on the northern front with Lebanon and Syria. Among the key objectives was the defeat of Hezbollah and to “prevent drones of any type and size from crossing the borders.”
The exercise was accompanied by an active movement of “Israeli” warplanes and helicopters.
On the second day of the drill, and at the height of the enemy’s mobilization, Hezbollah reconnaissance aircraft managed to infiltrate the airspace of occupied Palestinian over the Galilee region, before returning to its base in Lebanon without being detected by the “Israeli” army’s radars.
Al-Akhbar learned that the Al-Manar channel will broadcast images taken by the Lebanese reconnaissance plane.
The images are set to be aired Friday evening during the final episode of “The Secrets of the 2nd Liberation” series.
في 25 تشرين الأول الماضي، بدأ جيش العدو الإسرائيلي تنفيذ مناورة ضخمة على مدى خمسة أيام سمّاها «السهم الفتّاك»، حاكت حرباً متعدّدة الجبهات، خصوصاً على «الجبهة الشمالية» مع لبنان وسوريا، وبين أهدافها الرئيسية «هزيمة حزب الله». رافقت المناورة حركة ناشطة للطائرات الحربية والمروحية الإسرائيلية. في اليوم الثاني من المناورة التي كان بين أهدافها أيضاً «منع منظومات طائرات الدرونز من أي نوع وأي حجم من تجاوز الحدود»، وفي ذروة استنفار العدو، تمكنت طائرة استطلاع تابعة للمقاومة من اختراق الأجواء الفلسطينية المحتلة فوق منطقة الجليل، قبل أن تعود إلى قاعدتها في لبنان من دون أن تكتشفها رادارات الجيش الإسرائيلي. وعلمت «الأخبار» أن قناة «المنار» ستبث، في الحلقة الأخيرة من سلسلة «أسرار التحرير الثاني»، مساء غد، مشاهد التقطتها طائرة الاستطلاع اللبنانية.
Fearing Iran’s retaliation for last week’s assassination of top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, senior officers in the “Israeli” War Ministry have met in recent days with their counterparts at US Central Command.
According to ‘Israeli’ Haaretz Newspaper, several military measures have been taken in anticipation of a possible Iranian retaliation. These include procedures for joint detection of missile or rocket fire at “Israeli” or American targets.
The two militaries have been collaborating in these areas routinely. The “Israeli” army has made some minor changes in its deployment since the assassination, but no reserve forces have been mobilized and no units reinforced.
Relatively, “Israeli” military officials believe that there is a high probability that an Iranian reprisal will come. It’s possible that such an attempt will be carried out this month to keep a safe distance from the inauguration of Joe Biden on January 20.
“Another danger lies in attempts to attack top ‘Israeli’ figures or embassies abroad. Iran showed a high operational capability in September 2019 in a drone and cruise-missile attack on two oil installations in Saudi Arabia that did major damage,” Haaretz highlighted.
Washington is currently scaling down its presence in the Middle East and South Asia, at the behest of outgoing President Donald Trump. To secure the withdrawal of forces from Iraq and Afghanistan, an aircraft carrier and heavy bombers have been deployed in the Gulf.
US President Donald Trump may only have seven weeks left in office, but he’s given his top advisers the green light to batter Iran – anything that doesn’t hazard a full-on war before Joe Biden is inaugurated.
According to multiple US officials familiar with the matter, in recent weeks Trump has taken a more passive role in personally overseeing Iran policy for the critical final months until Inauguration Day. One White House official last week described Trump as mostly “checked out” on this major foreign policy issue, having become consumed by his bumbling legal effort to steal the 2020 election amid the coronavirus pandemic, as well as by other his pet grievances of the moment.
But Trump has given some of his most hawkish administration officials, particularly his top diplomat, Mike Pompeo, carte blanche to squeeze and punish the Islamic Republic as aggressively as they wish in the coming weeks. All Trump asks is that they don’t risk “start[ing] World War III,” as the president has specifically put it in several private conversations with Pompeo and others, according to two senior administration officials.
That has left a host of options at the outgoing administration’s disposal – among them, a suffocating sanctions regime and a studied silence in the face of the assassination of Iranian nationals. Two officials who spoke to The Daily Beast said the administration is set to announce new sanctions on government-linked companies and individuals in the coming weeks to solidify a years-long effort to paralyze Tehran’s economy.
Knowledgeable sources say those actions are designed to help fulfill various Trump officials’ long-brewing desire to make it more difficult for the Democratic president-elect to rekindle negotiations with Tehran and re-enter a nuclear deal. And it’s a scenario for which Biden lieutenants and allies have long prepared, having already factored into their Iran strategy that current US officials would do nearly everything they could to undermine a revival of Obama-era relations between the adversarial nations.
Trump administration officials who spoke to The Daily Beast frequently point to Pompeo and Elliott Abbahrams, special representative for Iran, as the leaders of the administration’s last-ditch attempt at pummeling the regime.
Pompeo has been particularly forward leaning in the administration’s efforts to inflict damage on the Iranian government. In a recent trip to the Middle East, Pompeo met with leaders from the “Israeli” entity, the UAE, and Bahrain on ways all three countries could work together on countering Iran. The trip followed on the heels of an announcement by the State Department that it had recently approved a massive sale of F-35 jets to the UAE. The deal has been widely viewed as a way to get Dubai to cooperate with Tel Aviv on deterring Iran. And on Friday, Pompeo announced additional Iran-related sanctions, this time targeting Chinese and Russian entities for transferring sensitive technology and items to Iran’s missile program.
Both Pompeo and Abrams, officials say, are supportive of harsh measures, including the quiet backing of covert actions carried out by other actors. One other senior administration official pointed to Central Intelligence Agency Director Gina Haspel as being intimately involved in the administration’s clandestine strategy as it relates to Iran.
Trump has repeatedly told his advisers that one of his priorities is to avoid a confrontation with Iran in which American military personnel would die. But Trump is comfortable letting the “Israeli” entity take the lead in targeting, or even slaying, Iranian government figures in the closing weeks of his presidency, officials said. That includes Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the country’s top nuclear scientist, who was assassinated on Nov. 27 while traveling in a convoy in the northern part of the country.
Two senior Trump administration officials said the entity was behind the attack, confirming global suspicions. One of those same officials, while they did not detail the level of involvement from the US, noted that America’s intelligence agencies often share information with the “Israeli” entity on Iran-related matters.
“There’s obviously a close working relationship between Mossad chief Yossi Cohen and Haspel,” said Mark Dubowitz, the CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a right leaning think tank that’s advised the Trump administration on Iran.
Some of Trump’s confidants have urged him not to draw too much attention to the killing. The administration has chosen to remain mostly tight-lipped regarding the scientist’s death. A source close to Trump said they had counseled the president in the past few days to avoid gratuitously tweeting about the assassination. Not only would it be a “bad look,” according to this source, it would likely undermine the administration’s public position of keeping the operation at arm’s length, if not farther away.
The two senior administration officials said discussions about taking more active measures to limit Biden’s administration on negotiating a new deal with Iran ramped up this summer and coincided with several of the entity’s covert operations.
“The ‘Israelis’ understand that between now and Jan. 20 they will need to inflict maximum damage on the regime,” Dubowitz said.
The Trump strategy over the next few weeks is clear, one of the senior administration officials said: Continue to use sanctions as a deterrence tool while providing intelligence to regional allies such as Israel that have a mutual goal of damaging the Iranian regime.
That plan isn’t so different from the one the Trump administration has put into action over the past four years. Since Trump took office in 2017, a cohort of top officials, advisers, and external advocacy groups have helped craft and implement a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran that has relied primarily on the implementation of more than 1,000 sanctions on government-linked officials and companies while also covertly targeting Tehran’s assets overseas.
The only difference now, officials say, is that the administration not only wants to punish Iran, it also wants to pen in President-elect Biden.
Individuals involved in the crafting of the Trump administration’s Iran policy believe the maximum pressure campaign will limit Biden’s ability to get back on track with Tehran, namely because some of the sanctions may be difficult to lift. Dubowitz and Trump administration officials familiar with Iranian sanctions said multinational corporations may be so risk averse to doing business with Iran now, following thousands of financial designations, that even if Biden lifts sanctions they will not engage in normal trade relations with Tehran.
Individuals familiar with Team Biden’s thinking say the president-elect has a clear strategy for dealing with Iran and sanctions come January. That plan rests heavily on Biden’s desire to return back to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA].
“If Iran takes the bait, which is clearly the intention behind [the Farikhzadeh assassination], then it probably makes it impossible to return to the JCPOA and diplomacy,” said Jarrett Blanc, the former coordinator for Iran nuclear implementation in the Obama State Department. “If Iran doesn’t take the bait… I don’t know that it really changes the choices that confront the Biden team or Iran in January.”
Any negotiations between a Biden administration and Iran would include conversations about the lifting of some sanctions, two individuals familiar with the Biden team’s thinking on Iran said. But those sanctions would likely only be lifted if and when Tehran complies with a deal.
“Iran says it is prepared to come back in compliance and reverse some of the decisions it’s made. And the US says it would lift some of the sanctions. [There’s] no legal bar to reverse them. Many of them were imposed for political reasons,” said one former senior Obama administration official. “It’s likely going to be a two-step approach for Biden – getting back in and then perhaps renegotiating a different, better deal.”
نُشر هذا المقال في العدد 501 من مجلة المستقبل العربي التابع لمركز دراسات الوحدة العربية، وأعيد نشره هنا.
بقلم عمرو علان
لا يتوقف المحللون الإستراتيجيون والسياسيون الغربيون، سيما الأمريكيون منهم، عن الحديث في هذه الأيام عن “حرب باردة ثانية” بين الصين والولايات المتحدة الأمريكية، فهل فعلا بات العالم على أبواب “حرب باردة ثانية”؟ وكيف وصلنا إلى هذه النقطة؟ إن الإجابة عن هذه الأسئلة الأساسية تقتضي بالضرورة العمل على استرجاع تسلسل الأحداث على النحو الآتي:
بعد تفكك الاتحاد السوفيتي وانهيار جدار برلين، أعلنت الدول الغربية بقيادة أمريكا نصرها النهائي على كل منافسيها في العالم وإلى الأبد، حيث بدأ المنظرون الأمريكيون يتحدثون عن نهاية التاريخ، وكان أكثر من تبنى هذا الطرح “المحافظون الجدد”، إذ قال أحد أبرز منظريهم وليام كريستال “William Kristol” إن القرن العشرين كان قرن أمريكا، لكن القرن الواحد والعشرين سيكون القرن الأمريكي،1 ومن جهة أخرى عكف السياسيون الأمريكيون على رسم الخطط لإدامة هذا النصر التاريخي والتفوق على باقي دول العالم، فاختلقوا “الحرب على الإرهاب” كستار لها؛ لتقوم بنقلة إستراتيجية على مستوى رقعة العالم تمثلت بغزو منطقة وسط وغرب آسيا (أفغانستان وإيران والبلاد العربية وتركيا) ومن ثم السيطرة عليها، بهدف إخضاع دول المنطقة الأوراسية للهيمنة الأمريكية الكاملة، حيث تعد منطقة أوراسيا خزان العالم من الموارد الطبيعية
والمواد الأولية، وتشكل في الوقت ذاته كتلة بشرية كبرى، وإن من شأن السيطرة عليها تأمين التحكم بمصادر الطاقة العالمية، والسيطرة على عقدة خطوط نقلها بالإضافة إلى السيطرة على خطوط نقل البضائع سواء عبر البر أو عبر الممرات المائية الإستراتيجية، وبهذا تستطيع أمريكا التحكم باقتصادات دول العالم كاملة، وبمدى النمو الاقتصادي لهذه الدول بما في ذلك الصين وروسيا، لا سيما أن أمريكا تتحكم بقنوات النقد العالمي وشبكة اتصالات العالم عبر سيطرتها على “الإنترنت”. وكان من المهم أيضا من وجهة النظر الأمريكية القضاء على باقي البُؤر المقاوِمة للهيمنة الأمريكية المتبقية في العالم التي صنفها جورج بوش الابن على أنها دول (محور الشر)، بما يخدم أيضا أمن الكيان الصهيوني؛ حيث لم يكن اللوبي الصهيوني بعيدا عن هذه المخططات، فكانت حربا أفغانستان والعراق لتحقيق هذين الهدفين الإستراتيجيين: السيطرة على غرب آسيا أولا، والقضاء على دول (محور الشر) بحسب الوصف الأمريكي ثانيا. وبناء على تجربة “حلف شمال الأطلسي” في حرب كوسوفو في تسعينيات القرن الماضي، اعتقد الأمريكي أنه يمكنه حسم حروب منطقة غرب آسيا سريعا، معتمدين في ذلك على سلاح الجو دون أن تطأ أقدام جنوده الأرض، وظهر وقتها الحديث عن نظرية “حجارة الدومينو”، وهنا تجدر الإشارة إلى أنه بالإضافة إلى ركون أمريكا لفكرة حسم حروب منطقة غرب آسيا بسرعة مما يؤمن لها التحكم بمستقبل الصين الاقتصادي، ركنت أيضا إلى تقدير آخر خاطئ مفاده أن مصير الصين سيكون مثل مصير باقي دول المعسكر الاشتراكي بعد أن تفكك ذاك المعسكر، وأن الشيوعية قد انتهت في الصين وإنها على طريق التحول إلى الرأسمالية، ولذلك أهملت أمريكا إستراتيجية “احتواء الصين”،2 وقد أثبتت النتائج خطأ كل هذه التقديرات التي لم تتنبه إلى قوة النظام السياسي الصيني بقيادة الحزب الشيوعي الصيني في الحفاظ على الدولة ووحدة الصين.
غرقت أمريكا في وحل منطقة غرب آسيا سيما في منطقتنا العربية، إذ وجِهَت بمقاومة شديدة من حركات مقاومة شعبية مدعومة من الدول الرافضة للهيمنة الأمريكية التي كانت أمريكا قد جاءت لتُجْهِز عليها أو تروضها، ونتيجة لذلك فشل الهدف الإستراتيجي الرامي إلى بسط النفوذ الأمريكي على المنطقة
وخلق “شرق أوسط جديد”، وعوضا عن ذلك دخلت أمريكا في حروب مكلفة لا تنتهي بحسب وصف دونالد ترامب، وكانت الصين في غمرة انشغال أمريكا بمغامراتها الشرق أوسطية تبني اقتصادها بشكل هادئ ومستمر، وتطوِّر في بنيتها التحتية وقدراتها التصنيعية، وتنمي قطاعات التطوير التقني والابتكار العلمي، واستمر هذا الوضع إلى عهد إدارة الرئيس الأمريكي براك أوباما الذي انتبه إلى الخطأ الإستراتيجي الذي وقعت فيه أمريكا في طريقة تعاملها مع الصعود الصيني، عندها بدأت ظهور مؤشرات على سياسة أمريكية خارجية تُركز أكثر على الصين، بما أُطلِق عليها الاتجاه نحو شرق آسيا “Asia to East Pivot”.
تعد الورقة البحثية التي قدمتها وزيرة الخارجية الأمريكية هلاري كلينتون في تشرين ثاني 2011 حول السياسة الخارجية الأمريكية اتجاه آسيا، بداية المؤشرات على التحول في الإستراتيجية الأمريكية، تلك الورقة التي دعت فيها إلى زيادة الاستثمار الدبلوماسي والاقتصادي والإستراتيجي في منطقة آسيا والمحيط الهادي،3 وفي نفس الشهر أعلن الرئيس براك أوباما عن التوصل إلى اتفاقيات للتجارة الحرة مع ثماني دول أخرى في قمة منتدى التعاون الاقتصادي لدول آسيا والمحيط الهادي “APEC”، وقد قرأت الصين في هذا المستجد محاولة أمريكية لكبح نموها الاقتصادي والسياسي لا سيما أن الرئيس براك أوباما أعلن في وقت لاحق نشر 2500 جندي من قوات “المارينز” في أستراليا، مما استدعى الصين توجيه انتقادات لهذه الخطوة، واستمر منذ ذلك الوقت تصاعد وتيرة الضغوط الأمريكية اتجاه الصين وتعاظم الشد والجذب، ومع وصول إدارة الرئيس دونالد ترامب لسدة الحكم، اتخذت اللغة العدوانية والسياسة الصدامية الأمريكية اتجاه الصين مستوى غير مسبوق، فاعتبرت الإدارة الأمريكية أن الصين تشكل خطرا أكبر على أمنها القومي من ذلك الذي يشكله “الإرهاب الدولي” كما جاء على لسان وزير الخارجية الأمريكي مايك بومبيو، وكان خطاب نائب الرئيس الأمريكي مايك بنس في تشرين أول 2018 أمام مؤسسة هَدْسِنْ “Hudson Institute” بأن الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية ستجعل من المنافسة عبر الضرائب أولوية في التعامل مع الصين عوضا عن التعاون كي تواجه ما أسماه العدوانية الاقتصادية الصينية، وربما يلخِّص لنا قول ستيف بانن “Steve Bannon” أحد مستشاري دونالد ترامب السابقين المدى الذي وصل إليه التوجه العدواني
الأمريكي نحو الصين إذ قال: هذان نظامان غير متجانسين، أحدهما سيفوز والآخر سيخسر.4 ومنذ ذلك الحين والمحافل الأمريكية بالإضافة إلى شخصيات بارزة كالمؤرخ وُلْتَر رَسِلْ ميد “Walter Russell Mead” لا ينفكون عن الحديث عن “حرب باردة” مع الصين،5 أما بالنسبة “لكوفيد-19” فقد كان فقط عاملا مسَرعا لما كان قائما بالأصل، إذن لأي مدى يمكن أن تصل هذه “الحرب الباردة” المفترضة؟ وما هي مكامن قوة الصين في مواجهتها؟
يبدو من خطوات الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية لغاية يومنا هذا أنها تسعى للضغط على الصين في ثلاثة مستويات: أولا الضغط على دول العالم والدول الحليفة للولايات المتحدة الأمريكية كي تقلل الاعتماد على المنتوجات الصينية، أما المستوى الثاني فيتمثل في تخفيف التداخل بين الاقتصادين الأمريكي والصيني من خلال فرض الضرائب على الواردات الصينية للأسواق الأمريكية، ومن خلال محاولة تنويع مصادر “سلاسل توريد” الصناعات الأمريكية ونقلها إلى دول غير الصين أما الثالث فيتمثل في الضغط العسكري في بحر الصين الجنوبي ومحاولة تحجيم النفوذ الصيني العسكري في منطقة الملاحة البحرية الإستراتيجية تلك.
ويظهر من طبيعة هذه الخطوات أن مدى فعاليتها يتوقف على وجود إستراتيجية مواجهة واضحة، بالإضافة إلى وجود تحالف متفاهم وتحت ظل قيادة جاذبة، وكانت الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية قد برعت في تأمين هكذا تحالف في “الحرب الباردة” ضد الاتحاد السوفيتي، بينما نجد في ظل إدارة دونالد ترامب اليوم، وبسبب إجراءاتها المنفرة للحليف قبل العدو، فرصة ضعيفة لقيام هكذا تحالف، وفي هذا الشأن نصت ورقة رسمية حديثة عنيت بشرح أسس الإستراتيجية الأمريكية الجديدة لمواجهة الصين على أن الهدف الأول للسياسة الأمريكية هو تقوية التحالفات والشراكات،6 وفي هذا الصدد يعَلِق كيشور ماهبوباني “Kishore Mahbubani”، الممثل الدائم لسينغافورا في الأمم المتحدة السابق والزميل في مؤسسة الأبحاث الآسيوية “Asia Research Institute”، بالقول: إن دونالد ترامب قد حضّر لهذه المعركة بطريقة فوضوية،
المشكلة الأساسية أن الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية قررت البدء في منازلة الصين – الحضارة الأقدم على وجه الأرض – دون صياغة إستراتيجية مفصلة حول الكيفية التي ستدير فيها هذه المنازلة أولا؛ إن هذا لأمر صادم فعلا.7 وتخْلُص مايرا راب هوبر “Mira Rapp-Hooper” في كتابها دروع الجمهورية إلى أن دونالد ترامب يُقطِّع أوصال تحالفات الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية مع حلفائها نتيجة ابتزازه الدائم لهم مقابل الحماية، وإنه يُنَفر الحلفاء بتقاربه مع الخصوم أحيانا، وإن من شأن هذه التصرفات أن تَهدم أصل فكرة وجود تهديدات مشتركة بين الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية وحلفائها معا.8 فهل يتغير هذا الوضع بعد الانتخابات الأمريكية القادمة إن نجح الديمقراطيون؟ وفي المقابل، إن نجح ترامب، فهل سيُغير من عقليته المادية؟ وهل يُعدِّل في طريقة تعامله مع حلفاء الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية بعد أن يكون قد تخلص من هاجس الفوز بدورة رئاسية جديدة؟
عموما، حتى في حال نجاح أمريكا بتشكيل حلف لمواجهة الصين بعد الانتخابات، فإن هذه المواجهة لن تكون بمثابة نزهة، فالصين أحسنت استغلال العقود الماضية، وانشغال أمريكا عنها بحروب غرب آسيا، فكبر اقتصاد الصين وتخطى اقتصاد اليابان ليصبح ثاني أكبر اقتصاد حول العالم بعد الأمريكي، والأسرع نموا بناتج قومي يصل إلى 14.14 ترليون دولار في العام 2019 بحسب “Nasdaq”. ويقول رئيس الوزراء السينغافوري لي سيان لون “Lee Hsien Loong”: إن دول شرق آسيا ترى في أمريكا قوة موجودة في المنطقة ولها مصالحها، ولكن الصين هي حقيقة موجودة في الجوار، وإن دول شرق آسيا لا ترغب في أن تُخير بين الاثنتين،9 ويضيف كيشور ماهبوباني “Kishore Mahbubani”: بأن الطلب الأمريكي من كوريا واليابان تقليص التداخل بين اقتصاديهما وبين الاقتصاد الصيني هو بمثابة انتحار اقتصادي.
ومن جهتها تتخوف أوروبا، الحليف الأقرب للولايات المتحدة الأمريكية، من الضغوط الأمريكية عليها لتقليص التداخل مع الاقتصاد الصيني، فبرغم اعتبار
أوروبا رسميا الصين “منافسا منهجيا”،10 وسعي دول الاتحاد الأوروبي إلى تنويع “سلاسل التوريد” من الصين، فإن مسؤول السياسة الخارجية في الاتحاد الأوروبي جوسيب بوريل “Josep Borrell” يقول: إن أوروبا لا ترغب بأن تُستدرج إلى حرب دونالد ترامب الشاملة على الصين، وأن أوروبا تملك سياستها الخاصة في هذا الخصوص، كيف لا؟ وعدة استطلاعات رأي ألمانية أظهرت مؤخرا اعتبار الألمانيين دونالد ترامب خطرأ أكبر على السلم الدولي من نظيره الصيني شي جِنْ بِنْغ، هذا لا يعود مستغربا إذا عرفنا مثلا أن صادرات ألمانيا إلى الصين بلغت 96 مليار يورو في العام 2019، وأن شركة الاتصالات الألمانية وصفت إجبارها على التخلي عن المعدات الصينية التي تستخدمها بسيناريو “هرمجدون”، وأن ذلك سيستغرق خمسة سنوات وسيكلف مليارات اليوروهات بحسب الشركة.11
وأكتفي بالإشارة إلى أن 14 دولة من أصل 20 من دول أمريكا اللاتينية قد انضمت مؤخرا إلى مبادرة الصين “الحزام والطريق”، وبحسب تعبير أحد الصحفيين الغربيين: إن أمريكا اللاتينية تتحول سريعا من “الحديقة الخلفية” للولايات المتحدة الأمريكية لتصير “الحديقة الأمامية” للصين.
وكي لا أطيل الحديث أيضا، أكتفي باستعارة ما قاله المؤرخ نايل فيرغسون ” Niall Ferguson” أمام جمعية هنري جاكسون ” the Henry Jackson Society”: حيث قال أنه عند التحدث عن التمويل في أفريقيا فإننا لا نجد إلا لاعبا وحيدا هناك وهو الصين.
أما على المستوى الدولي، فقد تجاوز حجم إقراضات الصين مؤخرا مجموع القروض التي قدمها البنك الدولي ونادي باريس مجتمعين بحسب إحصائيات مؤسسة كيل للاقتصاد العالمي “the Kiel Institute for the World Economy”.
تضع كل هذه الإشارات علامات استفهام على مدى قدرة نجاح أمريكا في الضغط على دول العالم لعزل الصين تجاريا سواء أكان ذلك في ظل قيام تحالف أمريكي أو بدونه، ويتضح هذا أكثر إذا أخذنا ربيبة أمريكا الكيان الصهيوني،
وحليف دونالد ترامب الأول بنيامين نتنياهو مثالا، فما يزال الكيان الصهيوني يتردد في فسخ العقود التي أبرمها مع شركة “هواوي” برغم الضغوط الحقيقية الأمريكية بهذا الاتجاه.
لكن يبقى لدى أمريكا ورقتا ضغط قويتان ضد الصين، تتمثل الأولى في فرض المزيد من الضرائب على البضائع الصينية والسعي لتقليص “سلاسل توريد” الصناعات الأمريكية من الصين، وهذا بلا ريب سيكون له الأثر السلبي على الاقتصاد الصيني، لكن في المقابل سيكون لهذا السعي انعكاسات سلبية على الاقتصاد الأمريكي ذاته، كما أنه يوجد أمام هذا التوجه عقبات عملية جدية أيضا، كيف لا والصين صارت بمثابة مصنع العالم بإجماع الخبراء تقريبا، فمثلا تستحوذ الصين على حوالي 80% من صادرات الدواء والمواد الأولية لصناعة العقاقير الدوائية إلى الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية،12 بل يذهب البعض إلى أن واردات المضادات الحيوية الأمريكية من الصين تصل إلى 97%،13 وفي رواية يُتندر بها في هذا السياق ما يُروى على لسان السفير الصيني في إيران أنه قال: إن الصين لو أوقفت صادرات الأحذية لأمريكا فإن الأمريكيين سيضطرون للمشي حفاة بعد أسابيع!14 وفي نفس هذا السياق أيضا، كانت أمريكا قد فرضت حظرا على بيع الشرائح الإلكترونية الأمريكية لشركة ز.ت.ي. الصينية “ZTE Corporation” في نيسان من عام 2018 فيما بات يعرف “بالحرب التقنية”، لكن كانت النتيجة أن زادت مشتريات كل من تايوان وفيتنام وتايلاند وأندونيسيا من الصين بنسبة %50 تقريبا في نيسان من عام 2020 مقارنة بنيسان 2019 بهدف تقليص الاعتماد على “سلاسل التوريد” الأمريكية بسبب الحظر الأمريكي، وأيضا سجلت اليابان وكوريا زيادة بنسبة عشرين بالمئة من وارداتها الصينية لنفس الهدف،15 ويلخص الأستاذ الجامعي كين مواك الأمر في مقاله بعنوان لماذا لا تستطيع الحرب التجارية ردع نهوض الصين؟ بالقول: “خلاصة القول، لا تستطيع الولايات المتحدة وقف نهوض الصين. وبالعكس من ذلك، يبدو أن المواقف المناهضة للصين قد عززت العملاق الآسيوي أكثر من ذلك، حيث تدفقت مبالغ ضخمة على
تصنيع الابتكار وتطوير الأسلحة وإنتاجها”.16 فإذن من يكون الخاسر الأكبر من أي حرب اقتصادية أمريكية على الصين؟ الصين أم أمريكا؟
أما الورقة الثانية فتتمثل بسيطرة الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية على قنوات المال في العالم، وتحكّمها بعملة التجارة العالمية الدولار، مما يشكل مشكلة إستراتيجية لكل من الصين وباقي الدول الأخرى الساعية للتخلص من الهيمنة الأمريكية على حد سواء، سيما في ظل المبالغة الأمريكية في الآونة الأخيرة في استخدام سلاح العقوبات ضد خصومها، فلم يبقَ في جعبتها سلاح آخر فعلي قابل للاستخدام يكون أقل تكلفة على أمريكا، لكن رُبّ ضارة نافعة، فلكل فعل رد فعل، حيث أدت هذه المبالغة الأمريكية إلى استفزاز الدول الكبرى الأخرى كروسيا والصين، وباقي الدول الأخرى الساعية للتخلص من السطوة الأمريكية بإيجاد نظام مالي موازي للتبادل التجاري العالمي لتخطي تلك العقوبات الاقتصادية الأمريكية، وكان من ذلك اتفاقية الاستثمار والتبادل التجاري بالعملات المحلية التي وقعتها دول منظمة شانغهاي للتعاون ” Shanghai Cooperation Organisation” في آذار من هذا العام،17 بالإضافة للاتفاقيات السابقة بين الصين وروسيا للتبادل التجاري بالعملات المحلية، وبين الصين ودول أخرى على نفس المنوال، ويضاف إلى هذه الخطوات أيضا نظامي التحويلات البنكية الصيني “CIPS ” والروسي “SPFS ” اللذان تم تأسيسهما لتخطي نظام “SWIFT ” الأمريكي مما يؤمن لتلك الدول القدرة على تفادي العقوبات المالية الأمريكية،18 وتعد كل هذه الخطوات خطوات جذرية من شأنها إيجاد نظام مالي عالمي موازي للنظام الحاكم حاليا، إذا ما تابعها القيمون عليها بجدية وكُتب لها النجاح.
وفي الحقيقة يمكن بقدر ما إضافة ورقة ثالثة إلى الورقتين الآنافتي الذكر، تتمثل في قضية الإيغور وإمكانية توظيف أمريكا لهذه القضية في الضغط على الصين سياسيا أمام المحافل الدولية، وضمن حملات التشويه الإعلامية الممنهجة للصين مستغلةً الديباجة القديمة الجديدة التي تسميها أمريكا والغرب عموما قضايا
حقوق الإنسان، وبدرجة أخطر يمكن لأمريكا توظيف هذه الورقة عبر دعم الحركات الانفصالية المتطرفة الموجودة في ذلك الإقليم الصيني؛ تمويلا وتسليحا بهدف إثارة القلاقل الأمنية في الداخل الصيني سيما أن أمريكا كانت قد برعت في استعمال هكذا اساليب أمنية ضد خصومها في الماضي. لكن بخصوص قدرة أمريكا والغرب عموما على التوظيف السياسي لورقة الإيغور، يمكن الاستدلال بوجهة التصويت الذي حصل في تموز 2019 في مجلس حقوق الإنسان في الأمم المتحدة، حيث كان قد سقط مشروع قرار لإدانة الصين على خلفية قضية الإيغور الذي كان مدعوما من 22 دولة غربية، بينما وقَّعت أكثر من 50 دولة رسالة مضادة تتهم فيها الدول الغربية بتسييس قضايا حقوق الإنسان وتثني فيها على إنجازات الصين في ذلك المضمار.
وأخيرا يبقى المستوى الأخطر، وهو الصدام العسكري المباشر بين العملاقين النوويين، سيما في ظل تحرشات البحرية الأمريكية المستمرة بالبحرية الصينية في بحر الصين الجنوبي، أو بسبب التجاذب الحاد بين كِلا القطبين حول تايوان بما يمثله تموضع هذه الدولة من أهمية إستراتيجية لهما, وتنقسم آراء الإستراتيجيين حول إمكانية حصول هكذا صدام مباشر بين متوقِّع أو مستبعِد،19 أما السياسيون الأمريكيون وبالتأكيد نظراؤهم الصينيون فيقولون أن هذا الخيار غير موضوع على الطاولة، ، فحتى لو تفوقت أمريكا على الصين عسكريا في بعض النواحي التكتيكية، يبقى التوازن العسكري الإستراتيجي بين القوتين النوويتين هو الحاكم، وعلى الأرجح أن ينسحب على قواعد هذا المستوى من الصراع ما هو قائم بين روسيا وأمريكا حاليا، ففي ظل عدم وجود تفوق إستراتيجي حاسم لأحد القوى النووية على الآخر يظل الردع النووي المتبادل هو سيد الموقف، فهل ستلجأ أمريكا إلى حرب يمكن لها أن تصل إلى صدام نووي من أجل المحافظة على هيمنتها؟
يُجمِع الحزبان الجمهوري والديموقراطي الأمريكيان على العداء لجمهورية الصين الشعبية، وعلى محاولة الضغط عليها سياسيا واقتصاديا، لكن الصين تدخل هذا المعترك متسلحة بنظام سياسي مميز يجمع بين اللينينية والرأسمالية، ويرتكز على التراث الصيني الضارب في التاريخ، إذ نجح هذا النظام في تفادي الأخطاء التي وقع فيها الاتحاد السوفيتي سابقا، والصين هي مساحة جغرافية ضخمة وكتلة
سكانية مهولة، ولدى شعبها روح وطنية عالية وقدرة كبيرة على الإبداع، وتملك اقتصادا ضخما وصاعدا يتداخل مع اقتصادات معظم دول العالم؛ معطوفا عليه شبكة تحالفات قوية مع دول عظمى كروسيا ودول صاعدة كإيران، ورؤية إستراتيجية مستقبلية تتمثل في مشروع “الحزام والطريق”، يضاف لكل هذا قوة عسكرية ونووية معتبرة، ويقول فرانسيس فوكوياما “Francis Fukuyama”: إن أول حضارة إنسانية أقامت دولة حديثة كانت الحضارة الصينية.20
بينما نرى الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية خارجة من إخفاقات إستراتيجية في حروبها في غرب آسيا، ونظام اقتصادي باتت قدرته على الاستمرار موضع تساؤلات، وفوضى داخلية بعد أدائها الهزلي في مواجهة العامل المسرّع “كوفيد-19″، وتراجع على الساحة الدولية بات لا يشكك في حقيقته أحد، فهل مع كل هذا يظل الحديث عن “حرب باردة” جديدة واقعيا؟ وهل فعلا يصح المقارنة بين الوضع الحالي بما كان عليه الحال فترة “الحرب الباردة” مع الإتحاد السوفيتي؟ ولعله فعلا يصح في الأحاديث عن حرب جديدة باردة مع الصين مقولة الشخصية الشيكسبيرية بانكيو “Banquo”: إنها قصة يحكيها أحمق، ملآة بالصخب والغضب، تشير إلى لا شيء.
وأخيرا، يبدو أن الصين مدركة لكل هذه الوقائع، لذلك كانت خطوتها يوم 30 حزيران 2020 بإضافة قانون الأمن القومي إلى القانون الأساسي الحاكم لوضعية هونك كونغ الخاصة،21 تلك الخطوة التي تأخرت 23 سنة تفاديا للصدام مع الولايات المتحدة ، والتي من شأنها وقف التدخلات الخارجية في إقليم هونك كونغ، تدخلات من قبيل منع التمويل الأجنبي للمنظمات الطلابية المعارِضة والمرتبطة بالولايات المتحدة الأمريكية، وجاءت هذه الخطوة كي تنزع من يد الأمريكي ورقة أخرى كانت لتكون شوكة في الخاصرة الصينية، ولكي تعلن وبشكل عملي عن تراجع الهيمنة الأمريكية في العالم، وعن محدودية الأوراق الأمريكية في مواجهة نمو الصين.
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