"The EU will be more open towards a Hezbollah-led government,"

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The EU has maintained ties to Lebanon for over 20 years

Observers of Sunday's parliamentary elections in Lebanon expect the Hezbollah-led opposition to win the majority. Analysts agree that the European Union will greet such an outcome cautiously, yet respectfully.

Hezbollah is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, and a victory in Sunday's elections would certainly impact US-Lebanese relations. US Vice President Joe Biden said last month in Lebanon that Washington would weigh its continued military assistance on the outcome of the elections.

The European Union, however, is expected to continue its association with its Mediterranean partner, analysts believe.

"There will be continuity rather than rupture, as the first phase," said Michael Emerson, senior research fellow at the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels. He said the EU would view the elections as "part of a civilian democratic process."

"And it has to be treated with respect," Emerson said.

The EU has maintained ties to Lebanon since 1977 and has seen many political changes in the Mediterranean country scarred throughout its modern history by war and political instability. Volker Perthes, director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs SWP in Berlin, said the bloc would be watchful of this election outcome.

"I think they would be rather cautious and sound out the situation and see what kind of government will actually be established, which will take some time," Perthes said.

A long history of ties

The EU is currently the Mediterranean country's leading donor. Under the European Neighborhood Policy, assistance to Lebanon totals 187 million euros ($265 million) for the period 2007-2010.

Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Hezbollah supporters celebrated its "victory" against Israeli forces in 2006

It is unlikely that Hezbollah, which is backed by Syria and Iran, will change this.

"The EU has a deep contractual relationship with the government of Lebanon," Emerson said. "If there's a new coalition that is formed, it would be natural for the European Union to have dealings with it in the context of its association agreement."

However, this did not mean there wouldn't be any change at all, said Perthes.

"Continuity does not mean there isn't adaptation," Perthes said. "But Lebanon will not be thrown out of the neighborhood union for the Mediterranean. No one has ever considered that."

Ultimately, he said, the level of concrete cooperation would be determined in government-to-government negotiations.

EU more open towards Hezbollah

While the US puts Hezbollah in the same category as the Hamas movement ruling the Gaza Strip, the EU has not taken this step of alienation. In 2006, the EU decided not to initiate ties to Hamas, despite its clear parliamentary majority in elections.

Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: The EU does not have official relations to Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh

"The Europeans decided not to talk to the elected representative and this didn't help to further our interests in Palestine because we didn't have a contact into the Gaza Strip anymore," Perthes said. "We even opened the doors widely for Iran to cooperate with the elected Hamas government."

According to Christopher Radler, a research fellow from the Duesseldorf Institute for Foreign and Security Policy, this experience of international isolation will not repeat itself.

"The EU will be more open towards a Hezbollah-led government," Radler said.

Western nations did not even have the option of treating Hezbollah as they treated Hamas, said Luce Ricard from the European Institute for Research on Mediterranean and Euro-Arab Cooperation (Medea).

"It would be damaging because the West cannot boycott a Lebanese government as easily as it has boycotted the Syrian regime or the leaders of Hamas in Palestine since Lebanon embodies too many economic, political and cultural interests and ties to the West," Ricard said in a Medea paper published last month.

But, Radler said, the EU's openness will certainly be tied to concrete demands, in particular Israel's right to exist. The leader of Lebanon's Islamist Hezbollah movement, Hassan Nasrallah, has said his group will never recognize Israel's right to exist.

Radler said the EU should make it clear to Hezbollah that democracy did not only involve fair elections, but also sticking to certain democratic rules.

"This includes peaceful cooperation and this entails Israel's right to exist," Radler said. "And no European government, no matter how the political reality looks, can turn a blind eye to this."

The transformation of Hezbollah

Radler said that over the years, Hezbollah had also undergone a change from "a regional division of Iran's Islamic revolution" to a "representative of Lebanese nationalism."

In addition, Hezbollah was not a terrorist group detached from society, but rather a mass movement supported by millions of Lebanese, he said.

Ricard also said Hezbollah could not be placed in the same category as Hamas.

"The movement is highly structured and witnesses a varied and solid support since the Israeli attack of summer 2006," Ricard said. "Its ability to present itself as the defender of the Arabs – and not only the Shiites - against Israel and its impressive communication strategy made the party a recognized player in the whole Arab scene."

Lastly, Hezbollah is aware that it would get nowhere by establishing an Islamic state in Lebanon and has said so itself.

"This would disrupt or explode the Lebanese societal mosaic," Perthes said. "Lebanon is a multi-confessional and multi-ethnic state and all the players there know it."

In order for Hezbollah to have political success in Lebanon, it is dependent on its allies and has therefore chosen a conciliatory tone.

Author: Sabina Casagrande
Editor: Rob Mudge