The significance of the Russian decision to move the humanitarian convoy into Novorussia
What apparently happened this morning is that the Ukie officials did not even bother showing up, so the Kremlin just said “forget it!” and ordered the trucks in. Not only did the Russians move in, but they did that without the ICRC whose personnel refused to go because of the lack of security guarantees from Kiev. The Russian response to that lack of security guarantees was a) to order this unarmed convoy in and b) to clearly state in the official statement: We are warning against any attempts to thwart this purely humanitarian mission which took a long time to prepare in conditions of complete transparency and cooperation with the Ukrainian side and the ICRC. Those who are ready to continue sacrificing human lives to their own ambitions and geopolitical designs and who are rudely trampling on the norms and principles of international humanitarian law will assume complete responsibility for the possible consequences of provocations against the humanitarian relief convoy.Again, from a logical, political or moral point of view, this is rather self-obvious, but from a legal point of view this is a threat to use force (“complete responsibility for the possible consequences”) inside the putatively sovereign territory of the Ukraine.
That, by itself, is a nightmare for Uncle Sam. Furthermore, I expect the Russian to act with a great deal of restraint. It would be stupid for them to say “okay, now that we violated the territorial integrity of the Ukraine and ignored its sovereignty we might as well bomb the junta forces and move our troops in”. I am quite confident that they will not do that. Yet. For the Russian side, the best thing to do now is to wait. First, the convoy will really help. Second, it will become a headache for the Ukies (bombing this convey would not look very good).
- Russian humanitarian convoy enters Ukraine en route to Lugansk: Several dozen trucks in the Russian humanitarian convoy have crossed the Ukrainian border and started moving in the direction of Lugansk, after Moscow ordered the convoy to proceed, without waiting for further permission from Kiev.
- Deliberate delays in humanitarian aid delivery to south-east Ukraine intolerable — FM: “We have a strong feeling that the current Ukrainian authorities are intentionally dragging the delivery of the humanitarian aid to create the situation, when there would be no one left to receive the assistance,” the statement said.
- Ukraine: Urgent need for aid in Lugansk: ICRC: Staff from the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) visited Lugansk yesterday to find water and electricity supplies cut off because of damage to essential infrastructure. People hardly leave their homes for fear of being caught in the middle of ongoing fighting, with intermittent shelling into residential areas placing civilians at risk.
- U.S. says Russia must pull convoy from Ukraine or face more sanctions: The United States demanded Moscow remove an aid convoy it sent into rebel-held eastern Ukraine without permission on Friday, accusing Russia of a flagrant violation of the sovereignty of its former Soviet neighbour and threatening more sanctions.
- Russian Foreign Ministry Statement On The Start Of The Delivery Of Humanitarian Relief Aid To Southeastern Ukraine
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