[The] Ahrar al-Najran Movement [is] calling for independence from Saudi Arabia…Abu Bakr Abi Ahmed al-Salami, a leader of Ahrar al-Najran, says the movement which brings together different tribal groups is set to launch its first battle in parts of south Najran occupied by the Saudi army…There are four main reasons why the movement wants to declare independence from Saudi Arabia:
1. General dissatisfaction in Saudi Arabia with the way officials in Riyadh handle day-to-day administration of affairs,
2. Riyadh’s policy to keep the south impoverished,
3. Aggression against Yemen and the massacre of defenseless people there by the Saudi regime,
4. Failure of the Saudi government to view the residents of the south as first-class citizens, thus violation [sic] of their legitimate rights.
Friday 26 June 2015
Saudi Arabia’s War on Yemen Comes Home
When
Saudi Arabia launched its war against Yemen in March 2015, it presumed
that a short, quick, and clean air war would be enough to degrade the
alliance of Houthi forces and those loyal to former President Saleh,
thereby giving the Saudi-backed government of former President Hadi the
necessary space to regain control of the country. However, that simply
has not been the case. In fact, not only has the Saudi campaign not
achieved these objectives, it has instead precipitated a much more
dangerous war which has now spread to Saudi Arabia itself.
Reports from Yemeni sources have confirmed that
the Houthis and their allies have launched a number of rockets into
Saudi Arabia’s Jizan province while also launching an assault on three
military bases in various parts of the country. Of course, the attacks
have sent an unmistakable message to Riyadh that there will be a price
to pay for the continued bombardment of Yemen; that the Saudis cannot
simply act with impunity.
War Spreads Beyond Yemen’s Borders
The
fact that Houthi and Saleh forces are able to successfully attack key
Saudi military installations has undoubtedly rattled a few nerves in
Riyadh. While the recent assaults have not been the first, they have
been perhaps the most open demonstration of the military capacity of the
Yemeni forces to strike at Saudi assets.
It has been reported that
the Houthi-Saleh combined forces have attacked and possibly taken
control of a military base in the Southwestern province of Jizan,
strategically located on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast. While of course
embarrassing for the Saudi government, this development is far more than
simply a public relations nightmare; it is a strategic disaster. While
Yemeni forces have pounded the base in Jizan, there have been scattered
reports of Yemeni attacks against other Saudi military installations,
including in the East of the country, as well as in the Northwest. If
these reports are to be believed, then nearly the entirety of Saudi
Arabian territory is within the range and capability of Yemeni rockets.
There
is clear progress from the perspective of the Ansarullah movement (aka
the Houthis) and their military allies if one compares the attacks they
launched back in April, and those they are carrying out today. While
there were a number of high profile attempts to break through Saudi
defenses on the borders and make significant gains at the time, all such
attacks were either entirely repelled or
were mostly unsuccessful; however today, less than two months later,
Houthi offensives are becoming increasingly sophisticated and, quite
predictably, increasingly effective. Although Ansarullah has fired
rockets and made offensive moves towards a number of key Saudi
installations throughout the country, their major breakthroughs have
come in the strategic Jizan province, right near the Yemeni border.
And
it remains the areas closest to the border with Yemen where the real
concrete gains have been made by the anti-Saudi coalition. Whether the
Houthis and their allies are able to take operational control of the
Saudi bases, or merely to attack them and flee is somewhat secondary.
What is of primary importance is the simple fact that essentially the
entire southwestern portion of Saudi Arabia is now under direct threat
from the combined Houthi-Saleh forces, in addition to newly formed
militias quietly developing inside Saudi Arabia in the area near the
Saudi-Yemeni border.
A Saudi Civil War?
The
formation of militias committed to waging war against the House of Saud
may be the single most troubling development for Riyadh. Perhaps the
most significant of these is the so called ‘Ahrar al-Najran’ Movement,
a coalition of regional tribes in the southwest of the country that
have combined forces with anti-Riyadh Saudi political activists to
create an independence movement that has taken up arms against the Saudi
government.
Ahrar al-Najran presents a complex problem for the
Saudis because it is comprised primarily of tribes whose lands were
originally within Yemeni territory until they were occupied by Saudi
forces in 1934. According to Iran’s Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA):
Needless
to say, from the perspective of the Saudis, a nascent independence
movement within their borders is just about the worst possible outcome
of their decision to wage war on Yemen. And considering the already
tense situation in the majority Shia province of Qatif, it seems Saudi
Arabia has become a political powder keg just waiting for a spark.
Undoubtedly the Ansarullah Movement understands this perfectly well, and
is now preparing to make its move, matches in hand.
Indeed, while
the Saudis will likely move quickly to assert control over the
southwestern regions, the Shias of the east – undoubtedly with a bit of
tacit and/or overt support from the Houthis – might find this an
opportune moment to begin organizing themselves into more than just
periodic demonstrations and upsurges of righteous indignation to be
quickly met with vicious force.
It should be remembered that
recent months have seen violent raids and clashes between Saudi security
forces and residents throughout the Qatif province of Eastern Saudi
Arabia, the most violent of which having taken place in the town of
Awamiyah. In response to protests against Riyadh’s war on Yemen, the
regime’s security forces unleashed a brutal crackdown that perhaps most
accurately could be called violent suppression. As one activist and
resident of Awamiyah told the Middle East Eye back
in April, “From 4pm until 9pm the gunfire didn’t stop… Security forces
shot randomly at people’s homes, and closed all but one of the roads
leading in and out of the village… It is like a war here – we are under
siege.” A number ofvideos uploaded
to YouTube seem to confirm the accounts of activists, though all
eyewitness accounts remain anonymous for fear of government retribution.
Such
actions as those described by activists in Awamiyah, and throughout
Qatif, are nothing new. Over the last few years, the province has
repeatedly seen upsurges of protests against
the draconian policies of the government in Riyadh. Were such protests
to once again erupt, and were they to coincide with the burgeoning Sunni
independence movement in the Southwest, one could then rightly
characterize the unrest as a general uprising: truly a nightmare
scenario for the Saudi government.
Saudi Arabia’s war on Yemen has
taken a tremendous toll on that impoverished country, with untold
thousands of casualties, countless families displaced, infrastructure
devastated, and the delivery of basic services slowed to a trickle, if
not cut off altogether. The Saudis have perpetrated a flagrantly illegal
aggression against the nation and people of Yemen, committing a laundry
list of war crimes that the world has, by and large, completely
ignored. But the Saudis may have to pay a price for this crime, a price
far higher than they likely ever imagined.
The House of Saud may
have control over the oil, and thereby control over the peninsula, but
it is becoming increasingly clear that it does not have total control
over its people. And, while no one knows whether a true general uprising
in Saudi Arabia will come to pass, the war in Yemen might possibly be
the spark that finally sets the oil drum ablaze.
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!
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