Russia will establish an unofficial no-fly zone over Syria

Wednesday, 26 September 2018

Russia will establish an unofficial no-fly zone over Syria

September 24, 2018

Today Defense Minster Shoigu announced measures which went far beyond what I had hoped for. Specifically, Shoigu has announced that Russia will

Supply S-300 air defense systems (with a 250km range) to the Syrians in the next two weeks.
Russia will deliver advanced automated air defense management systems which will *dramatically* increase the Syrian air defense capabilities and prevent future “friendly fire” incidents.
Russia will use her electronic warfare capabilities to suppress satellite navigation, onboard radar systems and communications of warplanes attacking targets on Syrian territory in the regions over the waters of the Mediterranean Sea bordering with Syria.

This is a very flexible and elegant solution for the following reasons:

It establishes a de facto air exclusion zone over Syria, but not a de jure one. Thus, the Russians will have the flexibility to decide on a nation by nation and aircraft by aircraft basis which aircraft should be suppressed/engaged and which ones to only track and monitor. This will give Russia a very powerful negotiating position with all the actors of this war.
It goes without saying that while these new capabilities will be deployed in Syria in response to the Israeli actions, they will also dramatically boost the Syrian capabilities against any potential aggressors including the USA and US client states. The S-300s will make it possible for the Syrian to detect and even track the Israeli aircraft right after their take-off and while still in Israeli air space.
While the Russians have not indicated which automated air defense management system they plan to deliver to Syria, it is likely that this is one which is typically used to control the engagement of S-300 and Buk air defense systems, the Poliana D-4. The delivery of this system will dramatically increase the air defense capabilities of the Russian task force in Syria making it much harder for Neocon à la Bolton to target Russian forces.

I have to admit that I am surprised by the magnitude and quality of this response. Clearly, the arrogance of the Israelis did not pay off and this time their usual chutzpah was met with a great deal of Russian anger (albeit carefully controlled anger). For Bibi Netanyahu, the Russian reaction is an absolute disaster because it undermines his entire policy towards Syria (and Lebanon and Iran). The Israeli strikes (over 200, of which they bothered to notify Russia in only about 10% of the cases) did not yield any tangible benefit for Israel, but has now fundamentally undermined Israel’s relationship with Russia. As I have said it many times, for all their self-serving propaganda about being so smart, the Israelis are actually pretty incompetent being blinded, as they are, by their quasi infinite arrogance.

However, please keep in mind that in warfare there is no such thing as a magical silver bullet. For one thing, the Israelis will still have the option of attacking targets in Syria (be it by using aircraft, or missiles, including sea based), but the difficulty of successfully executing such an attack will increase by an order of magnitude. The same also goes for the US/NATO/CENTOM/etc. One option would be to go for a saturation attack by using very large number of missiles since the Syrian and Russian capabilities are still limited by numbers: even in an ideal situation (excluding EW capabilities), that is even if the kill ratio of Russian missiles is 1:1, the Russians will only be able to shoot down as many enemy missiles as their supplies allow. The US+Israeli missiles supplies in the region are far bigger.

Second, both the US and Israelis have very sophisticated EW warfare capabilities and rest assured that they will use them if needed. Yes, the Russians are qualitatively ahead of other countries in this field, but one should never under-estimate the capabilities of the bad guys.

Third, the AngloZionists will now do one of three things: either pretend that they don’t care and basically accept the situation on the ground like they did in South Ossetia and Crimea, or try to negotiate some kind of deal with the Russians, or react with hysterical threats and provocation in the hope that the Russians will blink. While we can hope for option #1, we also have to realize that options #2 and #3 are far more likely. In other words, this is far from over.

Finally, this latest news conclusively debunks the notion that Putin is a doormat or sellout and that the Russians are either unable or unwilling to oppose the AngloZionists. All those who have accused Putin of being Israel’s shabboy goy are going to be busy removing eggs from their collective face. The fact that the Russians took their time to analyze what happened and prepare a response was not a symptom of their weakness, but of their responsible behavior in a most dangerous situation. Furthermore, the Russian response also shows that once national security issues are at stake, the Atlantic Integrationist 5th column still has to yield to the Eurasian Sovereignists. This, by itself, is a very good and reassuring development.

The Saker

Full video of the announcement: