ما هو مصدر القلق الفرنسيّ من تطورات خطيرة؟

ناصر قنديل

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تتابع الحكومة الفرنسيّة الوضع في لبنان على مستويات عدة، سياسياً ودبلوماسياً ومالياً وأمنياً، بحيث توجد على الأقل أربع أو خمس دوائر مركزيّة في السلطات الفرنسية تضع الملف اللبناني على طاولة المسؤول الأول فيها، وذلك يعود حسب تقارير فرنسية موثقة وضعت بتصرف كبار المسؤولين الفرنسيين، إلى متغيرات جوهرية أحاطت بالأزمة المالية في لبنان بضوء ما ترتب على سياسات الدول تحت تأثير مرحلة ما بعد كورونا، والتي تتسم بصورة رئيسية بسياسات الانكفاء السياسي والعسكري من جهة، والركود الاقتصادي وتراجع المقدرات والإمكانات من جهة مقابلة. وبنتيجة ذلك تتوقع التقارير تطورات متسارعة نحو الانسحاب الأميركي من سورية، وسعياً تركياً متسارعاً للتخفف من أعباء الوجود في سورية، وفيما يبدو المسار الأميركي أسهل بفتح قنوات التفاوض بين الحكومة السورية والمجموعات الكردية التي ترعاها واشنطن، بوساطة روسية، يبدو التفاوض السوري مع جماعات الأخوان المسلمين مستحيلاً بعدما ثبت أن القبول بالتفاوض مع جبهة النصرة مغلق برفض سوري يحظى بتأييد روسي إيراني. وهنا تبدأ الخشية الفرنسية من خطة شبيهة لإجلاء المسلحين السوريين التابعين لتركيا نحو ليبيا، بمحاولة دفعهم مع عائلاتهم للتسلل بحراً نحو شمال لبنان.

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التقارير الفرنسية تشير إلى أن قدرة لبنان على الصمود المالي لا تتعدّى السنتين، قبل أن يعجز مصرف لبنان عن توفير العملات الصعبة اللازمة لاستيراد الفيول للكهرباء والقمح للخبز عدا عن المستلزمات الطبية والدوائية، وأن الخط الانحداري الناتج عن الأزمة المالية حتى ذلك التاريخ، سينتج ضعفاً في سيطرة السلطة المركزية على المناطق اللبنانية بتأثير تنامي حال الغضب في الشارع، الذي تغذيه الانقسامات السياسية من جهة، وما تصفه التقارير الفرنسية بسياسات تصفية الحسابات المتبادلة بين الحكم وخصومه، من جهة أخرى، في ظل تأثر الأجهزة الأمنية والعسكرية بضغط تراجع القيمة الفعلية لرواتب عناصرها وضباطها وتعرضها لضغوط شديدة في بيئتها طائفياً وسياسياً، مع استمرار المواجهات في الشارع، الذي تعتقد التقارير أن ساحته الرئيسية ستتركز في منطقة الشمال، حيث أيضاً تنافس استخباري بين عدد من الأجهزة العربية والإقليمية على استقطاب الناشطين في الحراك الشعبي، والمجموعات الفاعلة في الشارع، بما فيها مجموعات المعارك التاريخيّة في أحياء طرابلس. ولا تخفي التقارير الفرنسية الخشية من سيناريو أسود ينتهي خلال عامين بسيطرة جماعات مدعومة من تركيا على مناطق أساسية في شمال لبنان، تنضمّ إليها جماعات من المعارضة السورية من مخيمات النزوح في لبنان، وأخرى فلسطينية تنتقل من مخيمات المناطق نحو مخيمي البارد والبداوي، لتظهر إدلب بديلة في طرابلس وجوارها.

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تشبه التقارير الفرنسية ما يمكن أن يحدث في لبنان، بما حدث عام 1970 عندما انتقلت المجموعات الفلسطينية المسلحة من الأردن حيث خسرت معركتها العسكرية، إلى لبنان حيث كان الغليان الشعبي ينتظر حدثاً كهذا ليدخل مرحلة الانفجار. ولا تخفي التقارير نفسها القلق من انتقال مشابه لبعض المجموعات المسلحة وجموع من النازحين السوريين في الأردن وخصوصاً مخيم الركبان، برعاية إسرائيلية، عبر الخط الفاصل من تقاطع الحدود الأردنية السورية الفلسطينية، نحو تقاطع الحدود الفلسطينية السورية اللبنانية، لتستقرّ في البقاع الغربيّ، الذي دعا الفرنسيون بعض أصدقائهم من اللبنانيين للانتباه إلى خطورة تورط جماعات من مؤيديهم في هذا المخطط.

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هذا الموقف الفرنسي يقف خلف السعي لدعم خطة الحكومة، وإقناع صندوق النقد الدولي بفعل الشيء نفسه، ودعوتهم للحكومة ولخصومها لوضع الخلافات جانباً، والتعاون لتلافي الأسوأ، لأن السقوط من الخاصرة الشمالية سيعني خسارة للحكومة والعهد، لكنه سيعني نهاية لفكرة الدولة والعمل السياسي، وربما تشطب بنتيجة ذلك قوى سياسية كتيار المستقبل نهائياً، وربما يكون أقل المتضرّرين بالمقابل هو حزب الله الخصم الرئيسي للغرب والخليج وحلفائهم اللبنانيين، الذي استعد لحماية بيئته من تداعيات الأزمة المالية والمعيشية، ويملك بنية منظمة وهيكلاً تنظيمياً هائلاً يتيحان له الحفاظ على الاستقرار في مناطق حضوره.

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   

The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

Is there a 6th column trying to subvert Russia?

THE SAKER • APRIL 30, 2020 

For those of us who followed the Russian Internet there is a highly visible phenomenon taking place which is quite startling: there are a lot of anti-Putin videos posted on YouTube or its Russian equivalents. Not only that, but a flurry of channels has recently appeared which seem to have made bashing Putin or Mishustin their full-time job. Of course, there have always been anti-Putin and anti-Medvedev videos in the past, but what makes this new wave so different from the old one is that they attack Putin and Mishustin not from pro-Western positions, but from putatively Russian patriotic positions. Even the supposed (not true) “personal advisor” to Putin and national-Bolshevik (true), Alexander Dugin has joined that movement (see here if you understand Russian).

This is a new, interesting and complex phenomenon, and I will try to unpack it here.

First, we have to remember that Putin was extremely successful at destroying the pro-Western opposition which, while shown on a daily basis on Russian TV, represents something in the 3-5% of the people at most. You might ask why they are so frequent on TV, and the reason is simple: the more they talk, the more they are hated.

So far from silencing the opposition, the Kremlin not only gives it air time, it even pays opposition figures top dollars to participate in the most popular talk shows. See here and here for more details

Truly, the reputation of the pro-Western “liberal” (in the Russian sense) opposition is now roadkill in Russia. Yes, there is a core of russophobic Russians who hate Russia with a passion (they refer to it as “Rashka”) and their hatred for everything Russian is so obvious that they are universally despised all over the country (the one big exception being Moscow where there is a much stronger “liberal” opposition which gets the support of all those who had a great time pillaging Russia in the 1990s and who now hate Putin for putting an end to their malfeasance).

As for the Duma opposition, it is an opposition only in name. They make noises, they bitch here and there, they condemn this or that, but at the end of the day, they will not represent a credible opposition at all.

Why?

Well, look at this screenshot I took from a Russian polling site:

The chart is in Russian, but it is also extremely simple to understand. On the Y axis, you see the percentage of people who “totally trust” and “mostly trust” the six politicians, in order: Putin, Mishustin, Zhirinovskii, Ziuganov, Mironov and Medvedev. The the X axis you see the time frame going from July 2019 to April 2020.

The only thing which really matters is this: 

in spite all the objective and subjective problems of Russia, in spite of a widely unpopular pension reform, in spite of all the western sanctions and in spite of the pandemic, Putin still sits alone in a rock-solid position: he has the overwhelming support of the Russian people. This single cause pretty much explains everything else I will be talking about today.

As most of you probably remember, there were already several waves of anti-Putin PSYOPS in the past, but they all failed for very simple reasons:

1. Most Russians remember the horrors of the 1990s when the pro-Western “liberals” were in power.
2. Second, the Russian people could observe how the West put bona fide rabidly russophobic Nazis in power in Kiev. The liberals expressed a great deal of sympathy for the Ukronazi regime. Few Russians doubt that if the pro-western “liberals” got to power, they would turn Russia into something very similar to today’s Ukraine.
3. Next, the Russians could follow, day after day, how the Ukraine imploded, went through a bloody civil war, underwent a almost total de-industrialization and ended up with a real buffoon as President (Zelenskii just appointed, I kid you not, Saakashvili as Vice Prime Minister of the Ukraine, that is all you need to know to get the full measure of what kind of clueless imbecile Zelenskii is!). Not only do the liberals blame Russia for what happened to this poor country, they openly support Zelenskii.
4. Most (all?) of the pro-western “NGO” (I put that in quotation marks, because these putatively non-governmental organization were entirely financed by western governments, mostly US and UK) were legally forced to reveal their sources of financing and most of them got listed as “foreign agents”. Others were simply kicked out of Russia. Thus, it became impossible for the AngloZionists to trigger what appeared to be “mass protests” under these condition.
5. There is a solid “anti-Maidan” movement in Russia (including in Moscow!) which is ready to “pounce” (politically) in case of any Maidan-like movement in Russia. I strongly suspect that the FSB has a warm if unofficial collaboration with them.
6. The Russian internal security services (FSB, FSO, National Guard, etc.) saw a major revival under Putin and they are now not only more powerful than in the past, but also much better organized to deal with subversion. As for the armed forces are solidly behind Putin and Shoigu. While in the 1990s Russia was basically defenseless, Russia today is a very tough nut to crack for western subversion/PSYOP operations.
7. Last, but not least, the Russian liberals are so obviously from the class Alexander Solzhenitsyn referred to as “obrazovanshchina“, a word hard to translate but which roughly means “pretend educated”: these folks have always considered themselves very superior to the vast majority of the Russian people and they simply cannot hide their contempt for the “common man” (very similar to Hillary’s “deporables”). The common man fully realizes that and, quite logically, profoundly distrusts and even hates “liberals”.

There came a moment when the western curators of the Russian 5th column realized that calling Putin names in the western press, or publicly accusing him of being a “bloody despot” and a “KGB killer” might work with the gullible and brainwashed western audience, but it got absolutely no traction whatsoever in Russia.

And then, somebody, somewhere (I don’t know who, or where) came up with an truly brilliant idea: accusing Putin of not being a patriot and declare that he is a puppet in the hands of the AngloZionist Empire. This was nothing short of brilliant, I have to admit that.

First, they tried to sell the idea that Putin was about to “sell out” (or “trade”) Novorussia. One theory was that Russia would stand by and let the Ukronazis invade Novorussia. Another one was that the US and Russia would make a secret deal and “give” Syria to Putin, if he “gave” Novorussia to the Empire. Alternatively, there was the version that Russia would “give” Syria to Trump and he would “give” Novorussia to Putin. The actual narrative does not matter. What matters, A LOT, is that Putin was not presented as the “new Hitler” who would invade Poland and the Baltics, who would poison the Skripals, who would hack DNC servers and “put Trump into power”. These plain stupid fairy tales had not credibility in Russia. But Putin “selling out” Novorussia was much more credible, especially after it was clear that Russia did not allow the DNR/LNR forces to seize Mariupol.

I remain convinced that this was the correct decision. Why? Because had the DNR/LNR forces entered Mariupol their critical supply lines would have been cut off by an envelopment maneuver by the Ukrainian forces. Yes, the DNR/LNR forces did have the power needed to take Mariupol, but then they would end up surrounded by Ukronazi forces in a “cauldron/siege” kind of situation which would then have forced Russia to openly intervene to either support these forces. That was a no brainer in military terms, but in political terms this would have been a disaster for Russia and a dream come true to the AngloZionists who could (finally!) “prove” that Russia was involved all along. The folks in the Russian General Staff are clearly much smarter than the couch-generals which were accusing Russia of treason for now letting Mariupol be liberated.

Eventually, both the “sellout Syria” and the “sellout Novorussia” narratives lost their traction and the PSYOPS specialists in the West tried another good one: Putin became the obedient servant of Israel and, personally, Netanyahu. The arguments were very similar: Putin did not allow Syrians (or Russians) to shoot down Israeli aircraft over the Mediterranean or Lebanon, Putin did not use the famous S-400 to protect Syrian targets from Israeli strikes, and Putin did not land an airborne division in Syria to deal with the Takfiris. And nevermind here the fact that the officially declared Russian objectives in Syria were only to “stabilize the legitimate authority and create conditions for a political compromise” (see herefor details). The simple truth is that Putin never said that he would liberate each square meter of Syrian land from the Takfiris nor did he promise to defend Syria against Israel!

Still, for a while the Internet was inundated with articles claiming that Putin and Netanyahu were closely coordinating their every step and that Putin was Israel’s chum.

Eventually, this canard also lost a lot of credibility. After all, most folks are smart enough to realize that if Putin wanted to help Israel, all he had to do is… … well… … exactly *nothing*: the Takfiris would take Damascus and it would be “game over” for a civilized Syria and the Israelis would have a perfect pretext to intervene.

As I have already mentioned in a past article, these were the original Israeli goals for Syria:

1. Bring down a strong secular Arab state along with its political structure, armed forces and security services.
2. Create total chaos and horror in Syria justifying the creation of a “security zone” by Israel not only in the Golan, but further north.
3. Trigger a civil war in Lebanon by unleashing the Takfiri crazies against Hezbollah.
4. Let the Takfiris and Hezbollah bleed each other to death, then create a “security zone”, but this time in Lebanon.
5. Prevent the creation of a Shia axis Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon.
6. Breakup Syria along ethnic and religious lines.
7. Create a Kurdistan which could then be used against Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran.
8. Make it possible for Israel to become the uncontested power broker in the Middle-East and forces the KSA, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and all others to have to go to Israel for any gas or oil pipeline project.
9. Gradually isolate, threaten, subvert and eventually attack Iran with a wide regional coalition of forces.
10. Eliminate all center of Shia power in the Middle-East.

It is quite easy nowadays to prove the two following theses:

1) Israel dismally failed to achieve ANY of the above set goals and

2) the Russian intervention is the one single most important factor which prevented Israel from achieving these goals (the 2nd most important one was the heroic support given by Iran and Hezbollah who, quite literally, “saved the day”, especially during the early phases of the Russian intervention. Only an ignorant or dishonest person could seriously claim that Russia and Israel are working together when Russia, in reality, completely defeated Israel in Syria.

Still, while the first PSYOP (Putin the new Hitler) failed, and while the second PSYOP (Putin the sellout) also failed, the PSYOP specialists in the West came up with a much more potentially dangerous and effective PSYOP operation.

But first, they did something truly brilliant: they realized that their best allies in Russia would not be the (frankly, clueless) “liberals” but that they would find a much more powerful “ally” in those nostalgic of the Soviet Union. This I have to explain in some detail.

First, there is one thing human psychology which I have observed all my life: we tend to remember the good and forget the bad. Today, most of what I remember from boot-camp (and even “survival week”) sounds like fun times. The truth is that while in boot camp I hated almost every day. In a similar way, a lot of Russian have developed a kind of nostalgia for the Soviet era. I can understand that. After all, during the 50s the USSR achieved a truly miraculous rebirth, then in the 60s and 70s there were a lot of true triumphs. Finally, even in the hated 80s the USSR did achieve absolutely spectacular things (in science, technology, etc.). This is all true. What is often forgotten is that at the same time, the Soviet society was oppressive, the corrupt and geriatric CPSU ran everything and was mostly hated, the Russian people were afraid of the KGB and could not enjoy the freedoms folks in the US or Europe had. In truth, it was a mixed bag, but it is easy to remember only the good stuff.

Furthermore, a lot of folks who had high positions during the Soviet era did lose it all. And now that Russia is objectively undergoing various difficult trials, these folks have “smelled blood” and they clearly hope that by some miracle Putin will be overthrown. He won’t, if only for the following very basic reasons:

1. The kind of state apparatus which protects Putin today can easily deal with this new, pseudo (I will explain below why I say “pseudo”) patriotic opposition.
2. In the ranks of this opposition there is absolutely no credible leader (remember the chart above!)
3. This opposition mostly complains, but offers no real solutions.

The core of this opposition is formed of Communists and Communist sympathizers who absolutely hate Putin for his (quite outspoken) anti-Communism. Let’s call them “new Communists” or “Neo-Communists”. And here is what makes them much more dangerous than the “liberal” opposition: the Neo-Communists are often absolutely right.

The (in my opinion) sad reality is that, for all his immense qualities, Putin is indeed a liberal, at least an economic sense. This manifests itself in two very different ways:

1. Putin has still not removed all of the 5th columnists (aka “Atlantic Integrationists” aka “Washington consensus” types) from power. Yes, he did ditch Medvedev, but others (Nabiulina, Siluanov, etc.) are still there.
2. Putin inherited a very bad system where almost all they key actors were 5th columnists. Not just a few (in)famous individuals, but an entire CLASS (in a Marxist sense of the term) of people who hate anything “social” and who support “liberal” ideas just so they can fill their pockets.

Here is the paradox: the USSR died in 1991-1993, Putin is an anti-Communist, but there STILL is a (Soviet-style) Nomenklatura in Russia, except for now they are often referred to as “oligarchs” (which is incorrect because, say, the Ukrainian oligarch truly decide the fate of the nation whereas this new Russian Nomenklatura does not decide the fate of Russia as a whole, but they have a major influence in the financial sector, which is what they care mostly about).

So we have something of a, maybe not quite “perfect”, but still very dangerous storm looming over Russia. How? Consider this:

Under Putin the Russian foreign policy has been such a success that even the Russian liberals, very reluctantly, admit that he did a pretty good job. However, the internal, many financial, policies of Russia have been a disaster. Just one example, the fact that the major Russian banks are bloated with their immense revenues, did not prevent millions of Russians from living in poverty and many hundreds of thousands of Russian small/family businesses of going under due to the very high interest rates.

One key problem in Russia is that both the Central Bank and the major commercial banks only care about their profits. What Russia truly needs is a state-owed DEVELOPMENT bank whose goal would not be millions and billions for the few, but making it possible for the creativity of the Russian people to truly blossom. Today, we see the exact opposite in Russia.

So what is my beef with this social ( if not quite “Socialist”) opposition?

They are so focused on their narrow complaints that they completely miss the big picture. Let me explain.

First, Russia has been in a state of war against the US+EU+NATO since at least 2015. Yes, this war is 80% informational, 15% economic and only 5% kinetic. But it is a very real war nonetheless. The key characteristic of a real war is that victory is only achieved by one side, the other is fully defeated. Which means that the war between the AngloZionist Empire is an existential one: one party will win and survive, the other one will disappear and will be replaced with a qualitatively new polity/society. The Neo-Communist Russian opposition steadfastly pretends like there is no war, like all the losses (economic and human) are only the result of corruption and incompetence. They forget that during the last war between Russia and the “United West” German tanks were at the outskirts of Moscow.

Well, of course they know that. But they pretend not to. And this is why I think of them as the 6th column (as opposed to the 5th, openly “liberal” and pro-Western one).

Second, while this opposition is, in my opinion, absolutely correct in deploring Putin’s apparent belief that following the advice of what I would call “IMF types” is safer than following recommendations of what could be loosely called “opposition economists” (here I think of Glaziev, whose views I personally fully support), they fail to realize the risks involved in crushing the “IMF types”. The sad truth is that Russian banks are very powerful and that in many ways, the state cannot afford totally alienating them. Right now the banks support Putin only because he supports them. But if Putin decided to follow the advice of, say, Glaziev and his supporters, the Russian bankers would react with a “total war” against Putin.

If you study Russian history, you will soon realize that Russia did superbly with military enemies, did very averagely with diplomatic efforts (which often negated military victories) and did terribly with what we could call the “internal opposition”.

So let me repeat it here: I do not consider NATO or the US as credible military threats to Russia, unless they decide to use nuclear weapons, at which point both Russia and the West would suffer terribly. But even in this scenario, Russia would prevail (Russia has a 10-15 year advantage against the US in both civilian and military nuclear technologies and the Russian society is far more survivable one – if this topic is of interest to you, just read Dmitry Orlov’s books who explains it all better than I ever could). I have always, and still do, consider that the real danger for Putin and those who share his views is the internal, often “insider”, opposition in Russia. They were always the ones to present the biggest threat to any Russian ruler, from the Czars to Stalin.

This new Neo-Communist 6th column is, however, a much more dangerous threat to the future of Russia than the pro-western 5th columnists. Some of their tactics are extremely devious. For example, one of the things you hear most often from these folks is this: “unless Putin does X, Y or Z, there is a risk of a bloody revolution”. Having listened to many tens of their videos, I can tell you with total security that far from fearing a bloody revolution, these folks in reality dream of such a revolution.

”Too often in our history we have seen that instead of an opposition to the government we are confronted with an opposition to Russia herself. And we know how this ends: with the destruction of the state as such”.

Now, if you think as a true patriot of Russia, you have to realize that Russia suffered from not one, but two, truly horrible revolutions: in 1917 and 1991. In each case the consequences of these revolutions (irrespective of how justified they might have appeared at the time) were absolutely horrible: both in 1917 and in 1991 Russia almost completely vanished as a country, and millions suffered terribly. I now hold is as axiomatic that nothing would be worse for Russia than *any* revolution, no matter what ideology feeds it or how bad the “regime in power” might appear to be.

Putin is acutely aware of that (see image).

These Neo-Communists would very much disagree with me.

They “warn” about a revolution, while in reality trying to create the conditions for one.

Now let me be clear: I am absolutely convinced that NO revolution (Neo-Communist or other) is possible in Russia. More accurately, while I do believe that an attempt for a revolution could happen, I believe that any coup/revolution against Putin is bound to fail. Why? The graphic above.

Even if by some (horrible) miracle, it was possible to defeat/neutralize the combined power of the FSB+FSO+National Guard+Armed forces (which I find impossible), this “success” would be limited to Moscow or, at most, the Moscow Oblast. Beyond that it is all “Putin territory”. In terms of firepower, the Moscow Oblast has a lot of first-rate units, but it does not even come close to what the “rest of Russia” could engage (just the 58th Army in the south would be unstoppable). But even that is not truly crucial. The truly crucial thing following any coup/revolution would be the 70%+ of Russian people who, for the first time in centuries, truly believe that Putin stands for their interest and that he is “their man”. These people will never accept any illegal attempt to remove Putin from power. That is the key reason why no successful revolution is currently possible in Russia.

But while any revolution/coup would be bound to fail, it could very much result in a bloodbath way bigger than what happened in 1993 (where the military was mostly not engaged in the events).

Now lets add it all up.

There is a very vocal internal opposition to Putin in Russia which is most unlikely to ever get real popular support, but which could possibly unite enough of the nostalgics of the Soviet era to create a real crisis.

This internal opposition clearly and objectively weakens the authority/reputation of Putin, which has been main goal of the western “alphabet soup” ever since Putin came to power.

This internal opposition, being mostly nostalgics of the Soviet era, will get no official support from the West, but it will enjoy a maximal covert support from the western “alphabet soup”.

Finally, this Neo-Communist opposition will never seize power, but it might create a very real internal political crisis which will very much weaken Putin and the Eurasian Sovereignists.

So what is the solution?

Putin needs to preempt any civil unrest. Removing Medvedev and replacing him by Mishustin was the correct move, but it was also too little too late. Frankly, I believe that it is high time for Putin to finally openly break with the “Washington consensus types” and listen to Glaziev who, at least, is no Communist.

Russia has always been a collectivistic society, and she needs to stop apologizing (even just mentally) for this. Instead, she should openly and fully embrace her collectivistic culture and traditions and show the “Washington consensus” types to the door.

Yes, the Moscow elites will be furious, but it is also high time to tell these folks that they don’t own Russia, and that while they could make a killing prostituting themselves to the Empire, most Russian don’t want to do that.

The bottom line is this: Putin represents something very unique and very precious: he is a true Russian patriot, but he is not one nostalgic for the days of the Soviet Union. Right now, he is the only (or one of very few) Russian politician which can claim this quality. He needs to preempt the crisis which the Neo-Communists could trigger not by silencing them, but by realizing that on some issues the Russian people do, in fact, agree with them (even if they are not willing to call for a revolution).

Does that sound complicated or even convoluted? If it does, it is because it is. But for all the nuances we can discern a bottom line: it is not worth prevailing (or even failing) if that weakens/threatens Russia. Right now, the Neo-Communist opposition is, objectively, a threat to the stability and prosperity of Russia. That does NOT, however, mean that these folks are always wrong. They often are spot on, 100% correct.

Putin needs to prove them wrong by listening to them and do the right thing.

Difficult? Yes. Doable? Yes. Therefore he has to do it.

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   

The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

APPEAL OF SOUTHFRONT STEERING COMMITTEE REGARDING CENSORSHIP ON YOUTUBE AND FACEBOOK

South Front

SouthFront’s YouTube Channel Is Banned (the text below was originally posted by SouthFront on May 2):

DEAR FRIENDS,

On April 30th, our Facebook page with about 100,000 subscribers was deleted without any warnings or an opportunity to file an appeal. (LINK)

Now, the situation appears to be even worse.

On May 1st, YouTube terminated all of South Front’s channels, with approximately 170,000 subscribers. Our YouTube channels were also terminated without any warnings or notifications. The main YouTube channel in English had over 152,000 subscribers, 1,900 uploaded videos and approximately 60 million views.

The termination of our channels occurred regardless of the fact that our YouTube channels had zero active strikes. Covering conflicts in the Middle East, we expressly understand the inherent sensitivity of the issue. Therefore, we have strictly followed YouTube’s Community Guidelines and have always complied with the Terms of Service.

SouthFront’s YouTube channels were terminated without any warning. All that we got was a single automated email regarding the termination of our inactive channel in Farsi “SouthFront Farsi” that included several translations of our war reports. However, even this email provides no details regarding the decision and just claims that “SouthFront Farsi” violated YouTube’s Terms of Service without any elaboration.

Throughout the past five years of our endeavors, South Front has been constantly subjected to pressure from different Euro-Atlantic structures and US tech companies that hold a monopoly on the dissemination of information. We have repeatedly faced attempts to censor our coverage of world events, in the form of written analysis, videos and livestream interviews. (LINK, LINK, LINK)

The only reasonable explanation, we may imagine, is that US authorities ordered YouTube and Facebook to cleanse the media sphere of sources of objective coverage and analysis on the Middle East region as a part of the ongoing preparations for a war with Iran. (LINK)

We think that the current situation deserves attention of the international public, including the journalistic community beyond individual ambitions of separate media organizations and journalists.

WE CRITICALLY NEED YOUR INFORMATIONAL ASSISTANCE

Please, help to share this message with the global audience. Also, please, inform your friends, your social circles about southfront.org as an independent platform covering crucial developments in the Middle East and around the world.

Also, in this hard time, your donations are especially important to keep SouthFront alive:

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Account: southfront@list.ru

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   

The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

قصةُ إمارةِ قطر كما لم تسمعوها من قبل

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   

The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

Australia: The “Building 7” of the COVID 19 Pandemic

By David Macilwain

Source

This article was first published on American Herald Tribune on April 26, 2020. A must read!

Seven hours after the Twin Towers came down, and before the transfixed and terrified New Yorkers had any idea who or why jet liners had flown into them, the answer to this question appeared on TV screens to those lucky enough to notice it. Despite this vital clue as to how it was that a bunch of jihadis with box cutters could demolish those monoliths of the American Empire, the mayhem loosed upon the world by the Bush and Cheney regime soon stifled any dissenting opinions.

Subsequently the grim task of sorting through thousands of tonnes of rubble looking for clues and body parts focussed local attention exclusively on the “Ground Zero” into which the two towers had miraculously collapsed. No-one noticed what was happening just a block away, as the remains of WTC7 were – presumably – removed, just as they didn’t seem to have really noticed the 50 storey building when it was standing, or ever found out what went on in it.

Work on a new WTC7 began in 2002 and the replacement was opened in 2006, so there are no more reminders of the astonishing collapse of Building 7. The official investigation didn’t even examine the collapse till 2008, when it rapidly concluded that WTC7 was the first such building in the world to collapse due to fire. Following a four year computer study by Architects and Engineers for Truth however, this was shown to be false, though the report released only in March this year, found that fire could not have been responsible, without stating their clear conclusion and the only one possible – that someone pulled the plug on Building 7.

Long before this of course, “conspiracy theorists” had latched onto the freefall collapse of WTC7, for the simple reason that it was never hit by a plane. The significance of this “anomaly” was not so much on why Building 7 collapsed anyway, but in what it suggested about the Twin Towers. If WTC 7 was brought down by a controlled demolition – as it so clearly was, then could this also be the explanation for the sudden and unexpected collapse of the North Tower at a time when the fire started by the jet fuel in the upper sections showed some sign of abating? This then followed in timely fashion by the remarkably similar collapse of the South Tower.

Once this unthinkable possibility is entertained, and the collapse of the towers closely observed, the tell-tale signs of a controlled demolition are immediately apparent along with the apparent close monitoring of the operation – such that an initial list in one tower is corrected and it falls perfectly into its own footprint. As an illustration of what a well organized controlled demolition looks like, this example from Frankfurt is instructive.

While no doubt now remains amongst the cognoscenti that the demolition of the Three Towers was the mother of all false flag operations, enabling two decades of the Empire’s “War on Terror”, the consequences of recognizing this crime against humanity as an “inside job” are almost beyond belief; everything claimed by the NATO powers as a pretext for offensive or pre-emptive action against other states must be questioned, with the default response being disbelief until proven otherwise.

And with each subsequent suspect event that is exposed as a false flag or act of cyber-warfare, the true nature of past events is confirmed; this is their modus-operandi, and has been for decades.

The corollary of this chain of crimes, and the compounding chain of disinformation that sustains it, is that those who believe the first great lie – in most cases the 9/11 lie – have their false belief reinforced by every subsequent operation, and to the point where they are prepared to believe almost anything. Given that these operations are well planned by their perpetrators, whose understanding of human psychology and manipulation guides their presentation to the target audience, the dumbfounding of the population now enables whatever they deem necessary.

As a prime example of such manipulative operations, it’s hard not to come back to the so-called “Salisbury Poisoning” of Sergei and Yulia Skripal, where practically nothing the UK government claimed and that media broadcast was true or verifiable. All we know is that two Russian guys visited Salisbury twice that weekend, and that Dawn Sturgess died several months later; everything else is hearsay based on the statements of categorically untrustworthy agencies, agents and authorities.

*(23 March 2018: army officers in protective suits remove the bench where Sergi and Yulia Skripal were found. Credit: Will Oliver/EPA)

It may take a while for this to sink in – because we were told so much about the Skripals and the GRU agents, and we saw the hundreds of PPE-wearing men “cleaning up” – and tearing up – Salisbury town center; they must have been doing something! And we all heard how the victims of the Russian Novichok nerve agent finally recovered thanks to the dedicated work of hospital staff, under instruction from advisors from nearby Porton Down.

Porton Down of course used to be the UK’s chemical and biological weapons development center, back in the ‘50s testing Sarin on human subjects who thought they were trialing a cure for the common – Coronavirus – cold. More recently Porton Down was closely involved in Britain’s operation to fight the Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone, coincidentally led by the now-renowned Colonel Alison McCourt. It is unwise to dismiss such coincidences.

As the Coronavirus 19 outbreak becomes increasingly politicized, with the US openly accusing China of allowing the virus to escape from the Wuhan facility, or even doing so intentionally, it’s worth remembering Porton Down’s history and questioning its current activities – if only because nobody does! Although as a class 4 lab it is now similarly involved in testing for the presence of COVID 19 in patient samples, its history suggests no information would ever be forthcoming, just as it wasn’t about Porton Down’s possession of Novichok samples in March 2018.

Besides, no-one is really questioning that there is a very serious outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the UK, even if death and case statistics are unreliable and dishonestly presented. Despite the overwhelming number of deaths being in the “old and sick” part of the population, the media constantly picks out the unrepresentative and unusual cases of younger and apparently healthy people who for some reason have succumbed to the virus.  The object of this disinformation initiative is to support the false idea that “we are all at risk” – and so must all follow the isolation guidelines.

But it is not on the UK’s trials that I want to focus. Rather it is on the “Building 7” of the COVID 19 Pandemic – Australia.

The actions taken by the Australian government on the pretext of preventing the spread and devastation of the novel Coronavirus mimic closely those taken by European countries fighting the outbreak – the unprecedented and massive public expenditure – $320 Billion, to support the beleaguered economy and some of those thrown out of work by the collapse of the “non-essential” hospitality and tourist related industries; the sudden and draconian measures to restrict social contacts and viral transmission involving a lockdown for an unspecified period of time, and the accompanying imposition of on-the-spot fines of thousands of dollars for “resisters”; and the suspension of normal Parliamentary process and any democratic oversight of these new laws.

What we have is tantamount to Martial law, with government by decree. All of which would arguably be justifiable in the face of escalating deaths and collapsing health systems, as has happened in Italy, France, Spain and the UK – and the US.

But just as there was no jet plane to blame for the sudden collapse of World Trade Center 7, there is no COVID 19 Pandemic to blame for the collapsing of the Australian economy, and all the excess deaths that will result from the millions of jobs lost, escalation of domestic violence and suicides, and deaths of people too afraid to go to the doctor or hospital for fear of catching the Virus.

In fact there isn’t even an epidemic of the Coronavirus in Australia, with a total death toll just one tenth of the daily deaths in New York or the UK or Italy. The daily addition to diagnosed cases of COVID 19 is now in single figures, with little if any evidence of community transmission unrelated to the initial surge in numbers that came with the debouchment to all states of Australia of infected passengers from the Ruby Princess, and the unregulated entry of Australians returning from the US and Italy before the borders were closed.

A fortnight ago it was announced that from a total of 6335 cases of infection in the whole of Australia, 238 were in hospital, of whom 81 were in ICUs, and just 35 on ventilators. The 61 fatalities then has now risen to 80, with a typical age structure dominated by the over 70s with co-morbidities. 20 of these fatalities came from the cruise ship. New cases are now in single figures, while over 5000 are said to have recovered, most evidently without any treatment; unlike in some countries, Hydroxychloroquine has not been approved until very recently and has been reported only adversely, as something Donald Trump – bless his heart – is promoting.

Adding to the feeling that the Australian government has another agenda is its dogged pursuit of a surveillance app to enable contact tracing of COVID 19 – or any other infectious agent – which Australians are being encouraged to install on their mobile phones. Their natural reluctance and residual distrust of the government will be overcome by the carrot and stick, as we are told that if everyone installs the App, life will be able to return to the new normal sooner. Those who refuse to do so will be restricted, and pilloried by the compliant and fearful masses, who have already shown a worrying willingness to dob in lock-down resisters. Dobbing in is a very un-Australian thing to do, so this tradition is another thing turned upside down by the Virus response.

While there is now much talk of when the lock-down may be eased or finally lifted, Government ministers are unyielding and suggest that just one new case of infection that results from such loosening could explode into a whole new epidemic, and so we must wait longer while a manhunt continues for the secretive killer, or a vaccine is proven. (that the population has been prevented from acquiring any resistance to a second outbreak does give this claim some credibility however) So the social lock down remains, despite moves to lift it in countries really affected by the Pandemic, and despite the collapsing of our economy and society around our ears.

It looks rather as if this New Normal was part of the 2020 Vision, and something that even George Orwell could not have imagined. The threat of a “second wave” is now the basis for a complete cessation of flights into and out of Australia for at least another year. Those seeking to escape from this pleasant but stultifying and insular existence will be increasingly ostracised, like the poor Chinese Australians attacked by strangers on the street and told to “go home”.

These despicable and racist attacks are the natural result of the Government’s unjustified and incendiary attacks on China, and attempts to hold it responsible for the crisis they themselves have created. You may draw your own conclusions as to what lies behind this physical and verbal assault on our most important and vital trading partner, as well as on the true origins of SARS-CoV-2.

I’ve already drawn mine from the rubble of Building 7, and another event in New York last October which involved Australia’s Pandemic preparedness overseer Jane Halton. But just like WTC 7, Event 201 has now been covered over, reborn as “COVID 19”.

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   

The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

The Saker interviews Michael Hudson about the current economic crisis

May 01, 2020

Source

Dear friends,

I have always held Michael Hudson in the greatest esteem.  Not only do I consider him my favorite US economist out there, I also know that he is a kind human being.  He manifested this kindness again when he agreed to reply to some very basic questions which a non-economist like myself would ask.  I am deeply grateful to Michael for taking the time to reply to them!

The Saker
——-

The Saker: I suppose that like any system, the economy and financial system in the USA and, more generally, in the West can take some punishment, but there has to be a “point of no return” after which the entire systems comes tumbling down like a house of card.  My first question is double: a) what would be this “point of no return” and do you think that we have (or will soon) reach it? b)  What would be the signs that this “point of no return” has been reached (or is about to be reached)?

Michael Hudson: The point of no return would arrive when the Federal Reserve and government stop bailing out the bankers and the stock and bond markets and let real “free market” asset prices collapse to reflect the “real” economy’s shrinkage. There would be a sell-off without the Fed’s promise to be the buyer of last resort.

The problem is that the economy can never recover from the Obama Depression (resulting from his refusal to write down the junk-mortgage debts and the other debts to the leading financial institutions) as long as it keeps the present debt overhead on the books. But Sheila Bair’s comment still applies: “It’s all about the bondholders.”

So I don’t expect a soon “point of no return.” But when it finally does occur, it will be sudden – as all crashes are. It may be triggered by a bank or speculator making a bad trade and being unable to pay, as AIG’s London office was unable to do so in 2008.

That said, who would have believed that the stock market would continue to go up while the underlying “real” economy is shrinking drastically. Obviously, there has been a decoupling of the economy’s two sectors: the Financial, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE) sector from the production-and-consumption economy.

I think that the Fed will let the large insiders sell out (and even make a fortune on selling stocks and bonds short) before they pull the plug. The key is that the collapse of the economy must be managed as a financial gain-seeking opportunity for the big banks and financial speculators.

The Saker: There is a lot of talk about the big corporations out there, but I want to ask you about the “little guy” (like myself and most of our readers): what can we do to prepare for a possible economic and financial collapse?  For example, do you consider that our money is safe in US FDIC insured deposits banks?  Or there be a “bank holiday” or even a full scale “run on banks” like what happened in Argentina?  Should we pull our saving and keep cash?  Or even get gold/silver?  What do you recommend for the “little guy”?

Michael Hudson: FDIC-insured deposits are safe. They won’t let that go, because that would end the banking system.

There won’t be an Argentina-style run, because its foreign debt is owed in U.S. dollars, which it can’t print. But US debt is owed in its own currency, which the Fed and Treasury can create at will.

The stock market will zig-zag in approximately the current range, until the plunge is permitted to occur. The safest investment is in U.S. Treasury securities. Gold is fine also, but the problem is how to keep it free from theft. Like currency, it can be robbed.

For your small investors, the best aim to protect themselves is to get (and stay) out of debt, secure their home and livelihood from what may be a Third-World type austerity plan, IMF style resulting from state and local bankruptcy. (Avoid buying tax-exempt state and local bonds.)

The Saker: How bad is, in your opinion, the current crisis in financial/economic terms?  Some say that this will (or, already is) worse than 2008, 9/11 or even the Great Depression.  Do you agree and, if not, why?

Michael Hudson: The current depression is the worst since the 1930s. There will be a new wave of foreclosures, on commercial real estate as well as residential homes. The problem will not be merely junk mortgages, but the loss of income by rent-paying stores and other commercial property and residential housing.

We are at the end of the 75-year upswing that began in 1945 when the war ended with few private-sector debts and abundant savings. Now, the situation has been reversed: a heavy debt overhead, with little savings by most of the population. The growth in the economic surplus is now spent almost entirely on debt service and other financial charges and rentier payments to the FIRE sector. Rentier capitalism has replaced industrial capitalism.

The Saker: a lot of people (and corporations) out there are loosing millions and even billions. But others are making a killing (Amazon?).  Who in your opinion benefits most from this crisis and how?

Michael Hudson: Financial and political insiders will benefit from the crisis, along with monopolists. The rest of the economy will lose – but the quickest fortunes often are made in a crisis. As Adam Smith noted, profits often are highest in countries going fastest to ruin. But this time it is not profits that are the key to fortunes, but “capital gains” from bank-inflated asset prices.

In a nutshell, the financial game has been rigged by political insiders and their financial backers. Their time frame is short-run.

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   

The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!