Post-Gaza Palestinians Worse Off, but Not Blaming Hamas

Monday, 9 March 2009

Post-Gaza Palestinians Worse Off, but Not Blaming Hamas

By Will

A new Palestinian public opinion survey gives further weight to the gravity of Israel's failure in its murderous Gaza offensive in January, and continued embargo of Gaza. While it hoped to destroy, if not weaken, Hamas, these surveys reveal Israel has had quite the opposite effect.

The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research just released a poll of 1,270 people in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, according to Reuters.

Hamas leadership gained support after withstanding the Israeli offensive. If an election were held today, it founds, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh would beat current President Mahmoud Abbas by several percentage points. Three months ago, the same poll found Abbas receiving 48 percent and Haniyeh 38 percent.

Still, the majority, 71 percent, believes they as a people are worse off than they were before the war.

However, if the contest were between Haniyeh and Marwan Barghouthi, the popular Fatah leader currently imprisoned by Israel, Barghouthi would win by 61 percent to 34 percent, the survey showed. This is important since Barghouthi's release will likely be part of some deal.

Significantly, Hamas has been pushing for his freedom. As a new guard politician who paid his dues on the street, Barghouthi bridges the partisan divide in ways the old pols cannot.

Fatah, however, remains the most popular faction with 40 percent of overall support, compared to 42 percent last December, it said. The popularity of Hamas in the same period increased from 28 percent to 33 percent in the latest poll.

The most important priority for Palestinians today, in the eyes of 46 percent of the sample, is the unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

The boost in Hamas popularity comes with a solid understanding of the consequences. Nearly two-thirds believe a Hamas victory in presidential and legislative elections would lead to the tightening of the Israeli blockade of the Gaza Strip, whereas nearly as many believe a Fatah victory would mean the end of the blockade. Therefore, the Israeli strategy of vilifying Hamas via collective punishment is a demonstrated failure.