Update : Eyes Half Open?

Link

FB Ali in SST, here

"In May Col Lang posted here an article of mine: Marching to the Edge – Eyes Wide Shut. In it I had argued that the generals, in their blind pursuit of a military victory in Afghanistan, were dragging the US into a potential disaster by risking the loss of Pakistan to the Islamists (the political ones inside the country, not the Taliban on the borderlands). I followed this up with another one (Losing Pakistan), showing how this might occur.

Some recent indications point to the possibility that some eyes are beginning to open! It appears that the Pakistan military has come to realise the dangerous consequences for the country of waging a full-scale operation against the Taliban in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan (FATA), as demanded by the US. The Pakistan government has been pushing hard for the military to take on Baitullah Mehsud in South Waziritan, but the military appears to have concluded that this would be the first step down the slippery slope of having to clear all of FATA, and then hold it.

What appears to have opened the eyes of the Pakistan military is their experience in clearing the local Taliban out of the Swat region (it is also possible that some of them read Sic Semper Tyrannis!). They had to use about eight brigades plus SSG (special forces) and paramilitary units, and, though they succeeded in occupying the territory, only killed or neutralized small numbers of insurgents, who mostly melted away. When they initially tried to repeat their Bajaur tactics of massive bombardments before the infantry moved forward, they created more than two million refugees. They then tried less destructive methods and suffered relatively heavy casualties, especially among younger officers (a sombre tribute to their leadership and courage). They know they will have to maintain significant troop strength in the cleared areas to prevent the Taliban from reappearing and again taking it over.

The prospect of repeating this type of operation in the FATA region has apparently led to this rethinking. Trying a purely Bajaur-type operation would not work, since that one may have been a tactical success but did not prevent the area from still being used by the Taliban. They now seem to have decided to adopt a different strategy for FATA: to seal it off from the adjoining settled districts, and then deal with the Pakistani Taliban in it through air strikes, commando raids, and encouraging and supporting local militias to take them on. They realise that this will fall short of what the United States wants them to do, so, to placate them, they will probably allow the US to take more robust action against the Afghan Taliban inside FATA through drone strikes and even Special Forces raids. The Pakistan military understands, though, that even this is unlikely to satisfy the US, and that the only situation in which the US pressure upon Pakistan would disappear would be a cessation of fighting in Afghanistan through a political resolution. That is why they have recently dropped hints that they are able to bring the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table with the US.

Meanwhile in Afghanistan, Gen McChrystal is testing his new strategy in Operation Khanjar, now ongoing in Helmand. The results so far have been that the Taliban have just melted away in front of the Marines, and moved into neighbouring areas (though they inflicted significant casualties on the British who were trying to set up blocking positions). There are insufficient Afghan troops and police to hold the cleared area, so the Marines will have to stay on to keep the area secure (to allow the ‘build’ phase of the strategy to take place). At this rate, McChrystal is soon going to run out of troops, with large areas left remaining under Taliban control. He may then be forced to revert to previous methods (none of which produced much success, either). In the background is the ominous ticking of the NATO clock – public support for this war is ebbing in the countries with troops in Afghanistan, and their governments will want quick results, or early closure. Thus, there is potential here, too, for some eye opening to occur, though it will probably take some time (and loss of life on all sides).

The US administration does not so far appear to be taking even a peek from under its tightly closed eyes. Its point man, Richard Holbrooke, is not as gung-ho as he once was, but is still demanding that the Taliban lay down arms; he is also promising to bring equality and modernity to the women of Afghanistan! He dismissed the Pakistani hints about bringing Mullah Omar to the bargaining table by repeating the mantra of the Taliban and al-Qaeda leaderships being inseparably bound, a statement quite remarkable for the degree of ignorance underlying it. This view, and the administration’s fixation on the al-Qaeda leadership as the main threat, brings back memories of the infamous ‘domino theory’ of an earlier era – both equally false, and both well able to preclude any sane policy.

Ambassador Holbrooke’s somewhat chastened manner may be due to his starting to get the same feeling that has overcome imperial proconsuls over the millennia as they have been bamboozled and checkmated by the wily inhabitants of this region, even as their compatriots were bleeding white the imperial legions and treasuries. Having failed in his attempts to sideline President Karzai, he has to now watch from the wings as Karzai sews up the forthcoming election by allying himself with warlords like Dostum and Fahim, and other unsavoury characters. On the other side of the fence, President Zardari is willing to promise anything so long as the aid billions keep flowing, but his capacity to deliver is limited, while his perch becomes increasingly precarious, not least because he is seen as Washington’s man.

So the march to the edge still continues. The bloody standoff in Afghanistan will go on (unless McChrystal proves to have the intelligence and insight that his admirers credit him with). If the Pakistan military succeeds in avoiding being forced into launching a full-scale attack on FATA, this will slow the country’s downward spiral, not stop it. The external pressures due to the US war in Afghanistan, and the internal pressures due to misrule and corruption, poverty and deprivation, and insurgency and terrorism will still push the country in the direction of an Islamist takeover.

To halt this march, some eyes will have to open in Washington. So far, the signs are not promising."

- F B Ali

Posted by G, Z, & or B at 3:58 AM