"The chance of that, is zero - no, less than zero..."

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CBS/ here

" ... At this annual gathering of financial backers of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), .... the crowd heard experts suggesting the military option is a very realistic one; and a retired U.S. Air Force general said Israel might open fire first - and that the United States would find it wise to join in.

Gen. Charles Wald, former head of strategic planning and policy for the Air Force who also had been deputy commander at U.S. European Command, said a bombing campaign - while "unpalatable" - could set back Iran's nuclear work for many years.

"I don't think Israel can do it alone," Wald added. "They have a fantastic military, but not big enough for weeks or months of attacks - hundreds of sorties per day."

Wald said the U.S. would not exactly be dragged into air strikes on Iran, but if "our great ally Israel" decided that it "can't take it anymore" then "pressure will mount for us to stand by Israel." .....

Sitting near Wald, a former head of Israel's military intelligence, retired General Aharon Farkash, agreed that the U.S. Air Force could be far more effective than Israel in crippling Iran's nuclear program. "The U.S. can destroy the nuclear capacity, and the war would not be long," Farkash said, though he cautioned that Western intelligence still might not know about all of Iran's nuclear sites....

"The Teheran regime doesn't seek suicide," said the Israeli, who heads a new high-tech security company. "When they realize we mean business this time, they won't want to lose their regime."

David Makovsky, a senior analyst at the Washington Institute and co-author (with Obama administration official Dennis Ross) of a book on Middle East policy, commented that the generals gave the impression of two different attack philosophies: "The U.S. believes do it huge, and make it overwhelming, while Israel would do what it can because not acting is so much worse."

Makovsky asked General Wald to comment on the suggestion by Jimmy Carter's former national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski - in a Daily Beast interview last month - that the U.S. shoot down Israeli warplanes if they try to fly over Iraq to attack Iran.

"The chance of that," Wald replied, "is zero - no, less than zero."

Earlier Saturday, the same audience heard a former vice president of the Islamic Republic of Iran argue that if his country is attacked, the pro-democracy "Green Movement" would be extinguished. Ata'ollah Mohajerani, who resides in London but is considered close to opposition candidate Mehdi Karoubi, said he strongly supports the reform movement, and considers Ahmadinejad's reelection illegitimate. But he said a military strike or severe sanctions would serve to strengthen the regime.

The Iranian politician's unexpectedly long speech included references to books by Dostoevsky, Kafka, Walt Whitman, Elie Wiesel, and even Britain's chief rabbi Jonathan Sacks. Mohajerani claimed that any good Muslim would not want nuclear weapons, but he made a point of saying that most of the nations putting pressure on Iran now have their own nuclear arsenals, alleging also that the United States and Israel wanted Iran to have atomic bombs when the late Shah was in power.

Responding to questions from supporters of Israel at the conference, Mohajerani refused to condemn Iranian-supported terrorism and declined to say if he thought Israel has a right to exist. Many in the crowd, believing that Mohajerani's goal in this rare appearance near Washington was to raise money and support for the Green Movement, said they were bitterly turned off. It looked to them like a Green-led Iran would not necessarily be much different from Ahmadinejad's regime."

Posted by G, Z, or B at 4:50 PM