The Future of Israel
It appears that a turning point in the history of the state of Israel may have been reached in recent months and years. A number of different factors have come together to suggest that traditional peace plans, such as the "road map for peace" proposal, with separate and independent states for Israel and Palestine is looking less and less likely to occur. The political situation, and the situation on the ground, points more and more to a future binational state.
First, there is the recent election in Israel of Benjamin Netanyahu as leader of a right-wing coalition. The new government is generally supportive of increasing settlements in the west bank and is hesitant about support for a Palestinian state. Despite intense negotiations with the Americans, no agreement has been reached on halting settlements, and even a temporary freeze, limited to certain areas only, has not been agreed to.
The existence of the settlements in the West Bank means that establishing a separate, contiguous Palestinian state would be extremely difficult without the mass withdrawal of settlements. Most Israelis are unlikely to agree with any decision to do this and indeed many are in favour of expanding the settlements even further. The map below shows the situation from 2 years ago.
A binational or "one state" solution would mean that there would be a single country between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, with Jewish and Arab citizens. In this context, there is no longer a focus on borders and national rights, but instead the focus is on human and democratic rights for all citizens. Most Israelis oppose this approach because they think it threatens the future of Israel as a Jewish State. However, at the same time, most Israelis also don't support withdrawing settlements and permitting a sovereign Palestinian state.
The shift to a struggle for Palestinian rights within a single state is clearly taking place within popular social movements and among peace activists. This can be widely seen in their growing accusations of Israel being an Apartheid State. Israel disputes this comparison but nevertheless the conversation has begun to change to a discussion of civil rights and voting rights within a single country.
Another factor is demographics. The birth rate of Arab Israelis and Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza is significantly higher than the birth rate of Jewish Israelis. This means the Jewish majority is declining, which could lead to an eventual binational state. This argument is made in the section called "The Arab Demographic Threat" of an article in the conservative Jewish magazine Commentary. Author Michael B. Oren, who is also the current Israeli Ambassador to the United States writes:
Israel, the Jewish State, is predicated on a decisive and stable Jewish majority of at least 70 percent. Any lower than that and Israel will have to decide between being a Jewish state and a democratic state. If it chooses democracy, then Israel as a Jewish state will cease to exist. If it remains officially Jewish, then the state will face an unprecedented level of international isolation, including sanctions, that might prove fatal.
The previous Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has said something similar:
If the day comes when the two-state solution collapses, and we face a South African-style struggle for equal voting rights (also for the Palestinians in the territories), then, as soon as that happens, the State of Israel is finished
Many activist groups have indeed started to push for sanctions and boycotts in what they call the BDS Movement (Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions.) They are taking a similar approach to the anti-apartheid movement against South Africa. The past couple of years has seen significant growth in this movement, and it appears to have a growing impact in terms of achieving several boycott and divestment agreements and concessions.
The 2006 Lebanon War and the recent Gaza War have also increased protests against Israel and resulted in UN accusations of human rights violations and war crimes. While Israel disputes these findings, they have given support to protest movements, including the BSD Movement mentioned above.
All the above factors point to a general trend away from a two-state solution, and the window of opportunity for such an agreement may now be closed. Without a breakthrough in negotiations the current evidence points to the future of Israel as a binational state with equal rights for all citizens, Jewish and non-Jewish alike.
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