12/05/2010 Conditions in Israel are not normal, Israeli media suggested Wednesday, citing “challenges” facing the army and the defense establishments on the one hand, and the specter of war whether with Lebanon, Syria or Iran.
“There is no doubt that under normal conditions, the establishment and its top brass would be able to address developments on the ground and decision-making processes from now until the end of the year; however, these are not normal conditions,” Yedioth Aharonoth’s Ron Ben-Yishai warned.
News of ‘major confrontations” between army chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi and Defense Minister Ehud Barak continue to percolate thus “jeopardizing their ability to effectively deal with the various missions faced by the army.” “What started as a conflict between bureaus recently escalated to the point of growing personal hostility,” Ben-Yishai suggests.
Barak insists on choosing his candidate for next army chief in two or three months. This plan provokes anger among Major-General Ashkenazi’s close associates. The army chief will complete his term only in February 2011, so choosing his successor and making major appointments seven months before that will turn Ashkenazi into a “lame duck,” undermining his ability to manage the army effectively.
“The fact that senior US officials have met with Ashkenazi en masse in an effort to curb an Iran strike also undermines the relationship between the two figures,” Ben-Yishai says. However he adds that “despite their poor relationship, Barak and Ashkenazi manage to jointly take level-headed decisions on major issues.”
In the meantime, Israel is seeking to pacify Syria although it is maintaining its aggressive rhetoric against Iran and Hezbollah.
A Haaretz report cites “a synopsis of declarations” made in the past 48 hours to point at “a conflagration” on the northern front.
“The prime minister accused Iran of trying to provoke war between Syria and Israel; the minister for strategic affairs reiterated that a military option exists against Iran's nuclear program; Iran's parliamentary speaker threatened a "final and decisive war" against Israel; Lebanon's prime minister expressed support for Hezbollah's right to have Scud missiles in its arsenal; Syria's president warned of "the demise of the peace process"; and Russia's president, visiting Damascus, said he fears a catastrophe in the region.”
Haaretz believes that developments on the Iranian front depend on the results of Washington’s initiative to impose tougher sanctions – expected to be discussed at the UN Security Council next month. The paper also believes that Hezbollah’s “attempts to exact revenge for the 2008 killing of commander Imad Moghniyeh have failed,” thus leaving the main reason for conflagration in the near future on the alleged transfer of Scud and M-600 missiles from Syria to Hezbollah.
In a bid to pacify Syria, the Israeli army sought Tuesday to explain that PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to a reservist training center in Northern Command to observe exercises was well planned in advance, as if urging Damascus not to conclude the opposite.
Strong diplomatic activity in the region, recently Russian President Dimitry Medvedev’s visit to Syria, indicates a serious situation in the Middle East.
Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah have said they have no interest in war, but also expressed readiness to confront Israel should it wage war on either party. The picture taken in Damascus a few months ago - joining Presidents Bashar Assad, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and Hezbollah S.G. Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah – was a clear message to Israel in this regard.
Apparently Israel is not ready to wage war on Lebanon at the present time; its army and defense establishments have their differences; they have the problem of shelters for settlers mainly in the north, they have the problem of being engaged in war on two, three, and maybe four fronts, and they have the problem of not knowing what to expect from Hezbollah during the course of the war. However it should be taken into consideration that Israel takes action when least expected, and based on speeches by Hezbollah’s S.G. and other senior officials, it can be concluded that “least expected” is no longer present in the resistance’s book of warfare.
River to Sea
Uprooted Palestinian
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