Via Friday-Lunch-Club
"Israel's Strategic Challenges" by Chief of Israeli MI, Amos Yadlin in INSS:
".... The source of the calm on the borders does not lie in the fact that our enemies, near and far, have suddenly embraced Zionism, rather in the conjunction of several restraining factors, some the result of our doing and some the result of circumstances beyond our control. The most important element in the calm we have experienced is Israel’s deterrence.... Deterrence is slippery and problematic, and it is difficult to predict its future course....
In practice, the State of Israel has succeeded in establishing deterrence vis-à-vis both Hizbollah and Hamas. The change in the character of the two organizations lies at the core of this success. They have become part of the establishment and joined the political apparatus,....
Nonetheless, the calm we have experienced cannot be attributed solely to deterrence and accountability. Other elements have also contributed to the quiet period; these must be understood correctly so that we do not mistakenly assume that the fronts will remain calm indefinitely. The fronts are calm now because our enemies are busy reconstructing their forces in preparation for the next round of fighting.....
The challenge of Iran becoming nuclear:... In the context of the Iranian nuclear challenge, three clocks must be watched: the technological clock, the diplomatic clock, and the regime stability clock. The hands of the technological clock have almost come full circle....
The diplomatic clock, which had stopped in recent years, has started to move a little faster in political terms....
What changed in 2009 was the ticking – albeit slow – of the regime change clock; ....The bad news is that the regime has handled the protests efficiently and stopped their momentum; this without making the streets of Tehran flow with blood, ....The protest movement failed to find charismatic leadership and lacks the classic revolutionary fervor of workers, students, intellectuals, and the military that is capable of overturning regimes. The protest movement’s leadership is cut from the same cloth as the regime ....
These developments in Iran present us in the intelligence community with the tremendous challenge of forecasting the stability of regimes and trying to time their collapse. It is difficult to measure the strength of undercurrents in the marketplaces, mosques, and factories....
However, aside from the three clocks, it is important to understand that from the moment Iran finally succeeds in establishing its status and image as a threshold state with the knowledge and capability to cross that threshold, it will enjoy the same advantages as those enjoyed by nuclear states, without having to construct a nuclear detonator facility and incur all the negative ramifications involved in a breakout. In such a situation, the allies of the radical axis would feel much more confident in taking steps that they currently do not dare to risk....
The challenge of cooperation and learning within the radical axis: The radical axis includes Iran, Syria, Hizbollah, and the Palestinianorganizations. In light of the blows inflicted on the axis in the last three years and the internal difficulties they have experienced in the last year in the Lebanese and Iranian arenas, the ties within the axis have grown closer and the level of cooperation has reached unprecedented heights.... The confrontation in the Gaza Strip is analyzed in Tehran and Beirut with the same measure of diligence devoted by Hamas.... The enemy is equipping itself with the best weapon systems from the East and the West, whose performance is no worse than that of our systems. Israel’s quality advantage is challenged and the international weapons market is open to anyone with the money to pay. .....Tens of thousands of rockets are imprecise terrorist weapons. It is impossible to conquer territory or decide the outcome of a war with these alone. The effect on the battlefield of an enemy that hides underground is problematic and limited....
River to Sea
Uprooted Palestinian
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