Pentagon Officials: The 'Arab Spring' made it more difficult for Maliki & other Iraqi leaders to tolerate anything that resembles an 'Occupation!'

Thursday, 18 August 2011

Pentagon Officials: The 'Arab Spring' made it more difficult for Maliki & other Iraqi leaders to tolerate anything that resembles an 'Occupation!'

FLC

MPEGS: Excerpts:
Splits have begun to appear within the Administration over how to proceed on a number of fronts in the Middle East. This is especially true regarding Iraq, Bahrain and the Israeli-Palestinian issue. On Iraq, both the State Department and the Pentagon are pressing for a more robust post December 31 US military presence on the ground. They argue that the gains made first by the surge and then consolidated by the rapid increase of Iraqi security forces will be put at risk should less than 10,000 American “trainers” remain behind.
Although all are aware of the fine line the Iraqis, especially Prime Minister Maliki must walk when considering security needs and political requirements (ie. Pressure from Shia allies, in particular, for all American troops to leave), officials at the Pentagon and State suspect that the White House would like nothing better than to be out of Iraq entirely – for its own political reasons. “What [the White House] doesn’t realize is that if Iraq becomes chaotic because we do not leave enough of a robust presence behind, they will take a lot of heat at home.”... Moreover, they note that the “Arab Spring” has made it all the more difficult for Maliki and other Iraqi leaders to tolerate anything that opponents could describe as an “outside occupying force.”
Since it is still weeks away, the annual opening of the United Nations General Assembly, which this year will feature a Palestinian attempt to press for statehood, is not getting much press attention in the US. However, senior US officials, not to mention Palestinians and Israelis have been gearing up for battle for some months now. While no one in the Administration (or, for that matter, any of our European allies) wants to see a confrontation between the US and the Palestinians, it now seems increasingly likely that one will occur.... It is all but certain that Congress would move swiftly to cut off funding for the PA, should a resolution be passed by the UN General Assembly. And with the Gulf states not providing long promised aid to the PA, economic conditions could deteriorate rapidly there. ...
A third area of disagreement seems to be over how to view events in Bahrain... Most officials do agree there has been a polarization within Bahrain’s society. The minority who are Sunni (about one-third of the population) do feel threatened by the demands of the majority Shia and are willing tolerate, if not urge a continued crackdown. The second, more important area of agreement for the US, is that the Khalifas, with help especially from their Saudi patrons, have insured that the Shia will have no choice but to accept what is offered them --- even if it creates, in the words of one State Department official, “hard feelings for a generation.”
Although there is widespread agreement on US policy and analysis regarding the most inflamed issues – Libya and Syria – there is also shared frustrations. The Libya enterprise has, by all accounts, gone much more slowly than anyone expected. And the murder of the leading general Abdul Younis by parties unknown has thrown the political opposition into disarray. Younis comes from the largest tribe in Libya and the inability so far of the Transitional National Council to adjudicate the problem does not augur well for a future Libya run, certainly without US help. “No one wants ownership of this one,” says one key US official, who notes that there has been no post-war planning. In fact, most of the Administration’s efforts have focused on unfreezing some of the nearly $40 billion in assets the Qaddafy regime has in the US. Having to work with a reluctant number of UN Security Council members, the aim now, according to informed sources, is to gain quick release of some $1.5 billion – enough to keep power and water flowing to rebel held areas.
As for Syria, little new has emerged over the past few weeks, as the Administration tries to gain allied, especially Turkish support for increased international pressure on the Assad regime. But few cracks in the mainstays of support have appeared. Yet few also are willing to believe the regime will last. As one senior official put it this week, “This is a minority sectarian regime led by a man who will never change. Bashar [al-Assad] has kept the army loyal. The Christians are with him. But the vast majority of the country [75% Sunni] has replaced its fear of him and his regime with anger. He is doomed.”