AIPAC/ WINEP: 'Iran will not escalate! We Should!'
For you Israel, no American treasure and blood is too dear!
"... Recognizing that Iran is neither able nor likely to try to close the Strait, the U.S. could simply sit back, confident in our superior firepower. This would be a mistake. The real danger in the Gulf is lower-level activity by Iran to harass ... ...
Rather than waiting for one of these gambits to succeed and force our hand in response, the U.S. should actively seek to discourage Iran from further testing of U.S. limits through a stronger deterrence effort.
First, the U.S. should resume a more active program of military exercises and signaling activities in the Gulf, in order to demonstrate U.S. capabilities and make Iran reconsider its actions in the area.
Second, the U.S. should signal our enduring commitment to the Gulf after our withdrawal from Iraq and continue to bolster the littoral, air, and missile defense capacity of our GCC allies and integrate their forces into the aforementioned exercises.
Finally, the U.S. should indicate clearly to Iran that we are prepared to use selective military force in response to further provocations such as those discussed above. Such limited force -- whether against Iran's navy in the late 1980s, or against the Revolutionary Guards' Qods Force in Iraq in recent years -- has proven effective in compelling Iran to draw back.
It is frequently observed that the consequences of military action are unpredictable, and rightly so; it should only ever be used with caution (hahaha) ..."
Iran: The Gulf’s New Superpower?
Iranian ships participate in a naval parade on the last day of the Velayat-90 war game on the Sea of Oman, located near the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran 3 January 2012. (Photo: REUTERS - Jamejamonline - Ebrahim Norouzi)
Iran has made up its mind to confront the US directly, starting in the Gulf, where the Iranian navy has extended its reach all they way to the strait of Bab al-Mandeb at the mouth of the Red Sea.
Iran seems in a rush these days to impose a new political map on the region, particularly in regards to the West. Perhaps the clearest and most important of recent developments have been in the Gulf, an area the Islamic Republic now wants to see completely free of US presence.
Iran is taking advantage of a moment of US weakness and the ascendancy of resistance forces after the culmination of three decades of Iranian planning, a progressive power build-up, and victories in various disputes with the superpower. So, it is now trying to reap geopolitical benefits by restructuring the strategic balance of the region.
Signs of this US weakness unparalleled in the superpower’s history started appearing towards the end of George W Bush’s term after the Israeli defeat in its wars on Lebanon in 2006 and Gaza in 2008; Iran’s success in consolidating its dominance over Iraq in 2009; and, an implicit recognition of US defeat in Afghanistan in 2010.
Add to that the ousting of Lebanon’s Hariri government in 2011, the US avoidance of a military adventure in Syria, and its months-long eagerness to enter into bilateral negotiations with Iran towards a comprehensive understanding regarding the whole region.
There is also the deepening structural economic crisis that has befallen the US and the West in general. The US military is exhausted by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the lack of finances to rebuild the military. The result is a tendency by the US administration to retreat in favor of “rebuilding the homeland” on the basis of the “US first” motto.
Developments in the past few weeks were critical in confirming the Iranian assessment of the situation. Perhaps the three most prominent of these were:
– The way in which the US withdrew from Iraq without even attempting to counter Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki’s decision not to extend the presence of US forces, limiting the number of experts to a few dozen, and refusing to extend legal protection to any of them.
– The way the US dealt with the unmanned spy drone shot down by Iran, known to be the most modern and advanced of its kind in the US arsenal. The US military in Afghanistan had reportedly requested permission to destroy the plane, but the White House refused out of concern that it might lead to an Iranian military reaction that might snowball into all out war.
– A weak US reaction to military friction between the two sides in the Gulf, including the downing of a US drone and sending Iranian spy planes to take pictures of the US fleets, in addition to what was reported in the Israeli media based on European sources about Tehran’s success in disabling a US satellite.
But the Islamic Republic’s actions in response to this perceived weakness are seen by some to be too adventurous, perhaps even leading to a world war. They know that Iran does not usually handle such matters lightly. The seriousness of its threats have been supported by both the message Tehran delivered to the Turkish Foreign Minster last Thursday and the announcement the following day of new military exercises. The drills scheduled for February will be held between the Strait of Hormuz, at the mouth of the Gulf of Oman and Bab al-Mandeb, at the opening of the Gulf of Oman.
This comes after land-based drills, codenamed the “Martyrs of Unity,” were conducted in the Khawaf region 60 kms from Afghanistan. Iran said their purpose “was to reinforce Iranian border security.”
The Velayat-90 navy exercises
Perhaps the most important event in this context are the naval exercises carried out towards the end of last year. Iran connected these maneuvers to the oil embargo the West is trying to impose on it. Iranian VP Mohammad-Reza Rahimi announced after the first few days of exercises that “not a drop of oil” would pass through the Strait of Hormuz if more Western sanctions were imposed on Iran over its nuclear program.
The areas covered by the 10-day exercise, the tactics and maneuvers it entailed, and Iran’s statements throughout will have effects that go far beyond the issue of oil reserves. These deposits could easily be sold in Asian markets, without of course dismissing the fact that such an embargo would undoubtedly hurt Iran.
From the Strait of Hormuz to Bal al-Mandeb
The military exercises first came as an affirmation of Ayatollah Khamenei’s statements that Iran must expand its presence in the area’s waters. “We are ready and able to go on any mission in the Atlantic ocean,” said Iranian naval admiral Habib Allah Siyari.
It is true the media and statements made by the leaders of Iran’s armed forces focused on the Strait of Hormuz, which is under the control of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, but the stretch of sea covered by the military exercises is noteworthy. The regular armed forces covered the area extending from the Strait of Hormuz on the shores of the Arabian Peninsula all the way to the Gulf of Aden, and the north Indian Ocean, thus including the two most vital waterways in the world.
The first, the Strait of Hormuz, is the passageway for about 40 percent of the world’s oil tanker traffic. The second is Bab al-Mandeb, which is the southern entrance of the Red Sea that leads to the Suez Canal in the north.
These military maneuvers send the message that Iran is able to seal off these strategic routes, which would in effect slow the international economy to a standstill and paralyze commercial activity between East and West.
The presence of the Iranian navy by the Saudi and Yemeni coasts would also send a message to Riyadh and Sanaa that Iranian national security now begins at Bab al-Mandeb and not within Iran’s territorial waters.
“Part of our defense geography”
It was clear however that Iran wanted to focus its public message on the Strait of Hormuz, described by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) as the most important international water passageway. It says about 14 petroleum tankers pass through it daily carrying approximately 17 million barrels of oil.
The Commander-in-chief of the Iranian army, Major General Ataollah Salehi, went so far as to say: “The Strait of Hormuz has become an Iranian strait and is part of our defense geography.”
The Iranian view regarding this waterway is defined by a legal position that sees the gulf — whose name is disputed between Arab and Persian — as a closed lake like the Caspian Sea. Therefore its security is the responsibility of the nations whose land adjoins the body of water.
This view relies on a report issued in the mid 1980s by a committee of the United Nations known as the Olof Palme Committee named after the former Swedish prime minister. After an in-depth study of the nature of the Gulf, the report concluded that it is a closed lake. Therefore, Iran believes it has the right according to international law to expel US military ships roaming the area.
A Gulf without the US
Based on the balance of power and the outcome of the conflict, Tehran believes the US withdrawal from Iraq should be the beginning of a US withdrawal from the Gulf region as a whole. According to Iranian sources, “no one should be surprised if Tehran demands in the near future that the US Fifth Fleet leave Bahrain.”
Perhaps the most important Iranian statement in this regard is what the deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guard Hussein Salami said when he asserted that US geopolitical and political capabilities were gradually collapsing. “Iran’s confrontation with the enemy has changed from the strategic to the pragmatic level, whereby the international balance of power is changing in favor of the Islamic revolution, and we are facing fundamental change in the political geography of the world,” he said.
According to one source this means that “the battle with arrogance (i.e., the US) was being fought indirectly. It is true Iran was running the show but it was not in the forefront. That is what happened for instance in Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, Bahrain, Yemen, and even Syria. Today however, Iran has decided to take the lead and confront [the US] directly, starting in the Gulf.”
An Iranian source asserted that “Tehran sent a concrete message affirming not only its ability to block the Strait of Hormuz but also the extent to which others are willing to abide by an Iranian decision in that regard.”
They said the missile tests conducted in the narrow waterway included a warning to concerned parties that traffic must stop for a certain period.
“When the time determined by Iran came, traffic stopped completely. The Iranians waited without conducting any tests until the time interval they had allocated for their exercises was over, before informing the concerned parties that they decided to postpone the test and that ships can sail through the Strait of Hormuz again,” he said.
Command and control
As such, the military exercises and the new weapons tested become less important despite their serious nature on a military level. Perhaps the two most significant accomplishments achieved by the Iranian armed forces in this context were preventing its command and control mechanisms from being compromised, and testing new missiles that are able to evade the enemy’s defenses.
In terms of protecting command and control, Iranians know of the existence of US signal intelligence ships in the Gulf whose mission is to intercept enemy warship communications, break their code, and broadcast electromagnetic waves to interfere with their communications.
In these military maneuvers, the Iranians succeeded in preventing any interference of this kind, making certain that US ships failed to break their military and electronic code.
As for the missiles tested, the important elements in those exercises were to make sure they were not susceptible to US interference or attempts to control them and change their course, as the Iranians did with the US spy drone.
Perhaps the most important type of missiles tested in these military exercises was the surface-to-sea missile known as Qader (Capable), whose range is 200 kms. It is state of the art and equipped with a highly-sensitive compact radar whose range and intelligence system were improved to prevent its detection.
There is also the Nasr (victory) anti-ship missile whose range reaches 35 kms and the Nour surface-to-land missile with a 200 kms. The latter is derived from the Chinese C-208 missile whose range varies between 120 and 180 kms.
The naval commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Admiral Ali Fadavi, explained that the exercises that will take place next month will focus directly on the Strait of Hormuz. “The Islamic Republic of Iran today controls the region completely and all movement in it,” he said.
The limits of power
If the US still had any cards to play following its withdrawal from Iraq, it would have used them, knowing full well the negative strategic consequences of such a withdrawal for it and its allies in the region.
Nevertheless, there are red lines which the US cannot step behind regardless of the amount of pressure it is under or the degree of its weakness, even if it means becoming involved in a suicidal war. This is what is called the “limits of power,” which Iran has shown to weigh very carefully in the past three decades. Whether Iran is still weighing its options accurately will be demonstrated in the weeks and months to come.
This article is an edited translation from the Arabic Edition.
Iran seems in a rush these days to impose a new political map on the region, particularly in regards to the West. Perhaps the clearest and most important of recent developments have been in the Gulf, an area the Islamic Republic now wants to see completely free of US presence.
Iran is taking advantage of a moment of US weakness and the ascendancy of resistance forces after the culmination of three decades of Iranian planning, a progressive power build-up, and victories in various disputes with the superpower. So, it is now trying to reap geopolitical benefits by restructuring the strategic balance of the region.
Signs of this US weakness unparalleled in the superpower’s history started appearing towards the end of George W Bush’s term after the Israeli defeat in its wars on Lebanon in 2006 and Gaza in 2008; Iran’s success in consolidating its dominance over Iraq in 2009; and, an implicit recognition of US defeat in Afghanistan in 2010.
Add to that the ousting of Lebanon’s Hariri government in 2011, the US avoidance of a military adventure in Syria, and its months-long eagerness to enter into bilateral negotiations with Iran towards a comprehensive understanding regarding the whole region.
There is also the deepening structural economic crisis that has befallen the US and the West in general. The US military is exhausted by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the lack of finances to rebuild the military. The result is a tendency by the US administration to retreat in favor of “rebuilding the homeland” on the basis of the “US first” motto.
Developments in the past few weeks were critical in confirming the Iranian assessment of the situation. Perhaps the three most prominent of these were:
– The way in which the US withdrew from Iraq without even attempting to counter Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki’s decision not to extend the presence of US forces, limiting the number of experts to a few dozen, and refusing to extend legal protection to any of them.
– The way the US dealt with the unmanned spy drone shot down by Iran, known to be the most modern and advanced of its kind in the US arsenal. The US military in Afghanistan had reportedly requested permission to destroy the plane, but the White House refused out of concern that it might lead to an Iranian military reaction that might snowball into all out war.
– A weak US reaction to military friction between the two sides in the Gulf, including the downing of a US drone and sending Iranian spy planes to take pictures of the US fleets, in addition to what was reported in the Israeli media based on European sources about Tehran’s success in disabling a US satellite.
But the Islamic Republic’s actions in response to this perceived weakness are seen by some to be too adventurous, perhaps even leading to a world war. They know that Iran does not usually handle such matters lightly. The seriousness of its threats have been supported by both the message Tehran delivered to the Turkish Foreign Minster last Thursday and the announcement the following day of new military exercises. The drills scheduled for February will be held between the Strait of Hormuz, at the mouth of the Gulf of Oman and Bab al-Mandeb, at the opening of the Gulf of Oman.
This comes after land-based drills, codenamed the “Martyrs of Unity,” were conducted in the Khawaf region 60 kms from Afghanistan. Iran said their purpose “was to reinforce Iranian border security.”
The Velayat-90 navy exercises
Perhaps the most important event in this context are the naval exercises carried out towards the end of last year. Iran connected these maneuvers to the oil embargo the West is trying to impose on it. Iranian VP Mohammad-Reza Rahimi announced after the first few days of exercises that “not a drop of oil” would pass through the Strait of Hormuz if more Western sanctions were imposed on Iran over its nuclear program.
The areas covered by the 10-day exercise, the tactics and maneuvers it entailed, and Iran’s statements throughout will have effects that go far beyond the issue of oil reserves. These deposits could easily be sold in Asian markets, without of course dismissing the fact that such an embargo would undoubtedly hurt Iran.
From the Strait of Hormuz to Bal al-Mandeb
The military exercises first came as an affirmation of Ayatollah Khamenei’s statements that Iran must expand its presence in the area’s waters. “We are ready and able to go on any mission in the Atlantic ocean,” said Iranian naval admiral Habib Allah Siyari.
It is true the media and statements made by the leaders of Iran’s armed forces focused on the Strait of Hormuz, which is under the control of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, but the stretch of sea covered by the military exercises is noteworthy. The regular armed forces covered the area extending from the Strait of Hormuz on the shores of the Arabian Peninsula all the way to the Gulf of Aden, and the north Indian Ocean, thus including the two most vital waterways in the world.
The first, the Strait of Hormuz, is the passageway for about 40 percent of the world’s oil tanker traffic. The second is Bab al-Mandeb, which is the southern entrance of the Red Sea that leads to the Suez Canal in the north.
These military maneuvers send the message that Iran is able to seal off these strategic routes, which would in effect slow the international economy to a standstill and paralyze commercial activity between East and West.
The presence of the Iranian navy by the Saudi and Yemeni coasts would also send a message to Riyadh and Sanaa that Iranian national security now begins at Bab al-Mandeb and not within Iran’s territorial waters.
“Part of our defense geography”
It was clear however that Iran wanted to focus its public message on the Strait of Hormuz, described by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) as the most important international water passageway. It says about 14 petroleum tankers pass through it daily carrying approximately 17 million barrels of oil.
The Commander-in-chief of the Iranian army, Major General Ataollah Salehi, went so far as to say: “The Strait of Hormuz has become an Iranian strait and is part of our defense geography.”
The Iranian view regarding this waterway is defined by a legal position that sees the gulf — whose name is disputed between Arab and Persian — as a closed lake like the Caspian Sea. Therefore its security is the responsibility of the nations whose land adjoins the body of water.
This view relies on a report issued in the mid 1980s by a committee of the United Nations known as the Olof Palme Committee named after the former Swedish prime minister. After an in-depth study of the nature of the Gulf, the report concluded that it is a closed lake. Therefore, Iran believes it has the right according to international law to expel US military ships roaming the area.
A Gulf without the US
Based on the balance of power and the outcome of the conflict, Tehran believes the US withdrawal from Iraq should be the beginning of a US withdrawal from the Gulf region as a whole. According to Iranian sources, “no one should be surprised if Tehran demands in the near future that the US Fifth Fleet leave Bahrain.”
Perhaps the most important Iranian statement in this regard is what the deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guard Hussein Salami said when he asserted that US geopolitical and political capabilities were gradually collapsing. “Iran’s confrontation with the enemy has changed from the strategic to the pragmatic level, whereby the international balance of power is changing in favor of the Islamic revolution, and we are facing fundamental change in the political geography of the world,” he said.
According to one source this means that “the battle with arrogance (i.e., the US) was being fought indirectly. It is true Iran was running the show but it was not in the forefront. That is what happened for instance in Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, Bahrain, Yemen, and even Syria. Today however, Iran has decided to take the lead and confront [the US] directly, starting in the Gulf.”
An Iranian source asserted that “Tehran sent a concrete message affirming not only its ability to block the Strait of Hormuz but also the extent to which others are willing to abide by an Iranian decision in that regard.”
They said the missile tests conducted in the narrow waterway included a warning to concerned parties that traffic must stop for a certain period.
“When the time determined by Iran came, traffic stopped completely. The Iranians waited without conducting any tests until the time interval they had allocated for their exercises was over, before informing the concerned parties that they decided to postpone the test and that ships can sail through the Strait of Hormuz again,” he said.
Command and control
As such, the military exercises and the new weapons tested become less important despite their serious nature on a military level. Perhaps the two most significant accomplishments achieved by the Iranian armed forces in this context were preventing its command and control mechanisms from being compromised, and testing new missiles that are able to evade the enemy’s defenses.
In terms of protecting command and control, Iranians know of the existence of US signal intelligence ships in the Gulf whose mission is to intercept enemy warship communications, break their code, and broadcast electromagnetic waves to interfere with their communications.
In these military maneuvers, the Iranians succeeded in preventing any interference of this kind, making certain that US ships failed to break their military and electronic code.
As for the missiles tested, the important elements in those exercises were to make sure they were not susceptible to US interference or attempts to control them and change their course, as the Iranians did with the US spy drone.
Perhaps the most important type of missiles tested in these military exercises was the surface-to-sea missile known as Qader (Capable), whose range is 200 kms. It is state of the art and equipped with a highly-sensitive compact radar whose range and intelligence system were improved to prevent its detection.
There is also the Nasr (victory) anti-ship missile whose range reaches 35 kms and the Nour surface-to-land missile with a 200 kms. The latter is derived from the Chinese C-208 missile whose range varies between 120 and 180 kms.
The naval commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Admiral Ali Fadavi, explained that the exercises that will take place next month will focus directly on the Strait of Hormuz. “The Islamic Republic of Iran today controls the region completely and all movement in it,” he said.
The limits of power
If the US still had any cards to play following its withdrawal from Iraq, it would have used them, knowing full well the negative strategic consequences of such a withdrawal for it and its allies in the region.
Nevertheless, there are red lines which the US cannot step behind regardless of the amount of pressure it is under or the degree of its weakness, even if it means becoming involved in a suicidal war. This is what is called the “limits of power,” which Iran has shown to weigh very carefully in the past three decades. Whether Iran is still weighing its options accurately will be demonstrated in the weeks and months to come.
This article is an edited translation from the Arabic Edition.
Uprooted Palestinian The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of this Blog!
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