Behind the scenes at politicians’ salons, talks about what the coming days will imply on events in Syria are on top of conversations. However, analyses are various and scenarios are multiple.

Thursday, 21 June 2012

Behind the scenes at politicians’ salons, talks about what the coming days will imply on events in Syria are on top of conversations. However, analyses are various and scenarios are multiple.

Behind the scenes at politicians’ salons, talks about what the coming days will imply on events in Syria are on top of conversations. However, analyses are various and scenarios are multiple.
Some argue that the situation in Syria will continue until the regime and the army exhausted and weakened, while others talk about other features of civil war unfolded in the almost daily security incidents in Syria.
Apart from the two analyses, a significant talk is going on about a compromise in the kitchens of international politics, having the regime coherence and the people support of the army frustrated efforts to drain Syria and drag it into civil war.

The information of this compromise depends upon what some dailies have posted regarding a Russian demand to achieve a quick and comprehensive settlement in favor of regular Syrian forces, in order to rearrange cards in favor of the Russians in any negotiations with the Americans. But has Syria decided its options yet?

Russia's desire to achieve a comprehensive and fast military victory is certain according to the strategic researcher Dr. Salim Harba, who showed at the same time that the fight against terrorism and undermining it do not require a Russian decision, but are mainly based on the popular and official Syrian conviction and will.

During an interview with Al-Manar website, Harba confirmed that armed groups in Syria are receiving painful blows today, where the decisive settlement has started and will never stop, stressing “there is a Syrian decision on a comprehensive settlement that goes in parallel with the desire of Russia and China, after the efforts exerted by hostile parties to find a pretext for military intervention and transferring observers into international armed forces.”
Harba also asserted that fighting against terrorist groups in Syria was a popular demand ahead of the government's position after the failure of the outstretched hand policy to drag others to the national dialogue. He recalled the rationality Syria has dealt with throughout events, when it issued amnesty for militants, agreed on the Arab League and Arab mission initiative, and later applied the plan of UN envoy Kofi Annan, while welcoming the international observers on its territories.
Members of "Blackwater" in Lebanon, Turkey and Syria
Harba told Al-Manar website that the Syrian obligations had not been met with any positive attitude of the parties opposed to the regime in Syria.
Pointing at the armed groups in Syria, the Syrian analyst noted that the protocol signed between the Syrian government and the United Nations to organize the mission of observers prohibits every civilian in Syria to hold, use, tour with or show weapons, except under the authority of the state.
During the interview, Harba went on to say that terrorism in Syria was not confined to local armed groups, pointing at the entry of foreign elements.
In his speech, He recalled what Al-Manar website has previously revealed about the involvement of "Blackwater" in the security incidents of Syria, unfolding this time that members of the American organization involved in security operations and murders are active at the Syrian border, especially in northern Lebanon and Turkey.
Harba continued that members of the security organization have trained militants and sent them to Syria, and that a number of them have entered the Syrian territory to directly supervise the movements and operations of terrorist armed groups.

Insurgents the First Beneficiaries of the Presence of International Observers

Dr. Harba believed that freezing the task of observers in Syria came to pressure the Syrian regime and foil the Russian initiative in convening an international conference on Syria.

The task of observers has limited the Syrian regime when Assad respected the commitments made under the Annan plan and relied on Annan and the Security Council to curb terrorism and the regimes that sponsoring and funding it.

Harba said that events had shown that terrorist groups and their backers were the first beneficiaries of the deployment of observers in Syria, for they were found as a tactical maneuver to increase pressure on the Syrian regime and weaken and embarrass it internationally.
“Since the very beginning, those have sought to foil Annan’s plan. Saud al-Faisal was sitting next to Annan when he called for a buffer zone a month after the task of the observers has begun. Hamad bin Jassem was first who announced that the plan has been succeeded by only 3% in order to re-demand the arming of Syrian opposition,” he stated.
Harba also explained that Syria sees the buffer zone project and the protected security corridors as an aggression against the State to which it will not hesitate to respond, and which may roll over to drag the region into all-out war, according to Harba assessments.
In total, the Syrian strategic researcher believed “the United States is unable to engage in any military action in the region, without making any change in its efforts to increase pressure on the regime and wage by the threat of Chapter VII and military intervention to blackmail Assad regime and win the cards enabling it (the U.S.) to get out of any negotiations with the Russians with the more gains possible.”
Dr. Salim Harba, however, suggested that in the coming days there will be no place except for the negotiations and efforts to find common ground between all the negotiators on the international arena. This in turns will re-activate the task of Kofi Annan as a ground on which any political solution to the crisis in Syria may depend on.
Translated by Al-Manar Website
To read the original version in Arabic, click here