Between Geneva and Cairo: US Seems Not Seeking Regime Change in Syria

Monday, 9 July 2012

Between Geneva and Cairo: US Seems Not Seeking Regime Change in Syria

Somaya Ali

The Syrian crisis had recently witnessed a remarkable change on the political level. Just few days separated the Geneva meeting of the major countries from the Syrian opposition conference in Cairo.

According to some sources, the international community had linked the success of the conference in revealing unity among the opposing groups on the level of transitional level in Syria with the success of the meeting which, in its first round, discussed the formation of a transitional government involving parties from both the opposition and the regime. This normally suggested the following questions: Who are the weighing-high opposition parties in Syria? Who are the opposing groups that will be negotiated and dialogued with in case future rounds were held aiming at achieving a serious political solution in Syria?

But this political movement had faced several obstacles that led it to lack a high average of being advantageous with respect to its ability to make a difference concerning the crisis. The huge number of announcements and positions following the Geneva international community meeting confirms this thought. Not to mention that some participant countries, such as the United States and France, recoiled what was agreed on by the end of the meeting through interpreting the text of the final statement which the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton considered paving the way to the post-Assad period. As for the statement of the opposition conference, it was closed on several attitudes towards the transitional phase, as well as talking about the unwillingness of the major powers to adopt the decisions of the conference.
Effective Parties in the U.S. Administration don't want Regime Change

As for details, Socrates Al-Ba'aj, a member of the so-called Syrian National Council, stated to the United Press International that the international conference represents the international desire not to change the regime. He also Cairo meeting

considered that Russia is not the only party unwilling to change the regime, yet there are effective parties in the American administration which assure that the international position isn't but a game in which roles "are exchanged." Al-Ba'aj also scoffed at the idea of the international community linking its active movement concerning the Syrian crisis with unifying the Syrian opposition.

The announcement of this Syrian oppositionist raises a number of questions related to the reasons behind realizing the change in the Western position regarding the Syrian crisis, which is clearly noticed in decreasing the level of the goals that insisted in the very beginning of the crisis on the demand to radically change the regime in Syria. This is what some opposition groups want as they expressed their discontent with the Geneva Meeting's statement, and rejected the participation of any current regime member in the transitional government. It is noteworthy that American-Russian meetings are being concentrated during the last period, which means that Washington considers Moscow a major player in identifying the features of the next stage in Syria, Beijing, and Tehran. For this reason, the United States have started creating a solution that would guarantee its power in the region, which it don't want to lose in front of Russia, especially because the presidential elections are approaching.

Political Solution Needs Time... and the Russian-American Talks Produced the Geneva Meeting

Bassam Abu Abdallah, the professor of International Relations at the University of Damascus, explains the current American position from the Syrian crisis: "It is clear that Washington recognized the important and influential role of Russia regarding the Syrian crisis. All what we have seen in the Geneva Meeting isn't but the direction of the Russian-American talks. But the U.S. since the very beginning, won't announce frankly that it receded its demands and the Syrian armed groups

demands of its allies. For this reason, it is gradually retracting, especially because the presidential elections are not so far. It is more likely that the States would suspend the serious search for a solution to the post-elections period, in order not to be a burden on President Obama in the upcoming elections."
In a telephone interview with Al-Manar website, Abu Abdallah continued: "Washington was betting on the field battles inside Syria, but its bet has failed till the moment. Moreover, overturning the Turkish jet by the Syrian troops has many implications especially for slapping one of the greatest allies to Washington." In the same context, "It is clear that the Russian position, in addition to the Iranian one, show that no foreign solution will be accepted, especially that the opposition cannot be the base of the Western project in Syria which aims at overthrowing the regime and producing a pro-Western vision regime," Abu Abdallah added.
As for the possibility of continuing the political option in light of the failure of Annan's plan as well as the Geneva Meeting, Abu Abdallah says: "I guess we are moving towards the political solution, but until reaching the level of applying it in Syria, the U.S. has no deterrent to use all of its tools and its maximum power to achieve its goals inside Syria. But those tools were hit strong in Syria during the field clashes against the regular forces. There is no doubt that the solution needs a very long time especially that Washington will try to create new equations that would save its role in Syria as well as the entire region."
Moreover, the professor of International Relations stresses that: "Certainly the military settlement in Syria is going on and is accompanied with the laws issued by President Bashar Assad to fight terrorism. Those laws legalize the military works. And I believe that the Syrian regime is working on the security level as well as the reformative one regarding the new government and the foreign negotiations."
Translated by: Zeinab Abdallah