'Migrating the conflict'

Wednesday 22 August 2012

'Migrating the conflict'

"It has come as no surprise to the White House that the violence in Syria has spread over national boundaries to both the Lebanon and, to a lesser degree, Jordan. This, we are told, had been expected as Washington was aware of the need for both Damascus and Teheran to demonstrate their ability to migrate the conflict and to ensure that the fighting remain along confessional and clan lines. The recent kidnappings in Beirut and the Bekaa Valley now pose a threat to the Free Syrian Army from its rear. We are told that Iranian agents are active as well in appealing to various Kurdish elements in their claims against Turkey. These events and this intelligence notwithstanding, the more hawkish members of Obama's national security circle continue to be frustrated by their inability to have the President give the order for the establishment of "no-fly no-drive" zones. Domestic politics continues to trump geopolitics. In a related domestic political story, our State Department sources confirm press reports indicating that Secretary of State Clinton has rejected "feelers" put out by the WH, to see if she might be interested in running with the President in his reelection bid. These same senior officials tell us, however, that she will not continue in her current position if the President is returned to office. She is reported as telling her loyal staffers that four years as SECSTATE has been enough. These same officials at State advise that the recent spate of Op-Ed commentary and press reporting on the growing possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran has once again led to senior officials at the White House, the Pentagon and State to contact their Israeli counterparts who comprise the eight-man "national security cabinet" to urge restraint. The current Washington assessment, however, is that the decision to launch an attack will be driven by the Prime Minister and Minister of Defense and both, in the words of our sources "are not really taking our calls." With only eighty days left before the presidential election, the Obama Administration is doing everything it can to forestall such an attack."