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"The US is going to gradually adjust itself to a nuclear-capable Iran!"
"... No matter who wins, I
suspect we'll see a new push for some sort of diplomatic deal with Iran. It's
been reported (and denied) that Obama intends to do this after the election, and
I wouldn't be surprised if a Romney administration made at least a gesture in
this direction. But my guess that the United States
is going to gradually adjust itself to a nuclear-capable (but not nuclear armed) Iran.Here's why.
I don't think Iran will cross any overt "red lines" in the next four years,
meaning that it isn't going to try to fabricate or test a nuclear weapon or
start enriching uranium to 90%. They won't do this because that is the one step
that might trigger a U.S. attack. Absent such a move by Iran, I don't think
either Israel or the United States will conduct a preventive strike. Israel
doesn't have the capability to conduct a strategically
meaningful attack, and most of the U.S. national
security establishment thinks an attack would be foolish....
So
the next president will be facing an Iran that is nuclear
capable (meaning it has the theoretical capacity to build a bomb if it
chooses to do so). Even if we don't reach a formal diplomatic deal (i.e., one
that permitted Iran to enrich uranium to low levels and gradually reduced
economic sanctions), he'll probably deal with it exactly the same way we dealt
with other nuclear powers: i.e., via containment and deterrence. Note: this step
will also mean negotiating security arrangements with key U.S. allies in a
period where regional politics are going to be quite volatile (see #2 above). In
short, plenty for the next president to do on this issue, too...."
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