Yemen has not seen stability since the 1990s. The fragile but resource-rich country has been ravaged by successive wars. However, this was not due to its weakness. Its untouched wealth and strategic location attracted regional and international powers, seeking a major stake in the country.
Yemen sits on a huge stockpile of oil. At merely 1,800 meters below ground, the unextracted reserves will mean the country could become one of the richest in the region in the future as oil in the Gulf countries runs out.
Major oil companies are warning of a global oil crisis. The known reserves will only last for the next 40 years, according to the head of British Petroleum (BP). Unextracted oil is becoming the focus of attention. Major oil companies and global powers will be peering underground and in areas with evidence of crude oil, with Yemen as a major candidate.
Up until now, humanity has used up almost one trillion barrels of oil in its entire history. The second trillion are ready to be dug up. However, consumption rates are soaring. Industrial development and continuous wars are leading to a rise in the need to extract further and discover more, as quickly as possible.
In this situation, the discovery of oil concentrated at a depth of 1,800 meters underground, in a forgotten country like Yemen, would be a geological gift to the companies of the third trillion, who are focusing on oil, which is not being extracted [see box below].
For years, the United States attempted to monopolize the extraction of oil discovered in Yemen but the government kept refusing and preferred to open the competition to Russia and European countries. Saudi Arabia also became involved, offering $10 billion annually, in exchange for a monopoly on extraction for the next 50 years. However, the Yemeni government did not conclude the deal.
This was followed by political developments and ongoing instability since the early 1990s. US warships on their way to Iraq passed through the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb and landed on Yemeni shores. The arrival of US troops at the time alerted al-Qaeda in Yemen. In 2002, the first operation against the US took place in Yemen with the attack on the USS Cole. This lead to a security agreement between the two countries, allowing warships to remain, under the pretext of "the war on terror."
US military presence increased with time, in parallel with the weakening of the central state in favor of regional power centers. Armed groups started forming throughout the country, from al-Qaeda's Ansar al-Sharia in Abin and Shabwa, in former South Yemen, to Ansar Allah (Houthis) in Saada, in the north.
The growth of such groups could be traced back to the ongoing civil wars in Yemen. Since 2004, six wars have been fought in the north, in addition to a the vicious war in the south in 1994. The wars destroyed the economy and tore apart the social fabric of the country. This led to an actual partition, based on political, tribal, and regional fronts and political conflicts.
The escalation recently reached its peak, as Sanaa fell completely from the grip of the state. The central government had collapsed completely in some regions a long time ago but Sanaa had been under relative control, despite al-Qaeda’s occasional operations in the capital. The state was present, at least formally, but the fall of Sanaa took it out of the picture.
Following the deal between Yemen and the US, a scenario of dismantling the army was put in place. It was based on the Gulf initiative, giving control of the Yemeni army and its restructuring to the US. In practice, "restructuring the army" only meant its dismantling.
Militarily speaking, the largest army bases in the north were destroyed in the civil wars between the Houthis, on one hand, and General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, on the other. It led to the annihilation of Brigade 310 and the First Armored Division of the Yemeni army.
The Presidential Guards and Central Security Forces, which had been under the command of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, were also dismantled. Major army bases were relocated to the south to fight against al-Qaeda. Most of the army was camped in the south and the north was almost empty of real military presence.
The Yemeni air force also moved to al-Anad air force base in the south, currently controlled by the US. It is the country's largest air base, established by the Soviet Union in south Yemen near the southern capital Aden, with the largest port on the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden, close to the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb.
Yemen is currently without a strong army or security forces. The central state has been overthrown and warring militias are on the rise. These and other factors, make Yemen easy prey for major powers.
Alongside US military presence and strong Saudi influence, Iran found its own ally in Yemen. It is a strong military ally, which could be relied upon for strategic gains on Bab al-Mandeb. Iranian influence entered the competition after the Houthis took over Sanaa.
In the last national dialogue, Yemen was divided into a federation after being broken up militarily and regionally. But will military might be enough to control the whole situation? Will the Houthis and Iran succeed or will the US and Saudi Arabia intervene through counter-attacks by extremist groups such as Ansar al-Sharia?
Today, the Yemenis are kept busy with small battles and score-settling as the major powers draw up their plans, sustaining their own military groups to pressure other powers, in a poor and dilapidated country, which is expected to become the wealthiest in the region and the Arabian Peninsula in the next few years.
The third trillion
Current consumption rates require the extraction of 82 million oil barrels a day around the world. All eyes are now on the third trillion, which has not been extracted and which is controlled by oil states across the region. These states are sitting on 80 percent of the planet's oil reserves. Oil extraction in the Arab world is easy, compared to countries like Canada – with the second largest oil reserves after Saudi Arabia. This is due to the presence of oil sands, which makes the liquid crude oil of the Arabian deserts more attractive.
The geology of the Arab region could explain the presence of most major oil companies, as well as the presence of the major powers' warships. Extracting the third – and second – trillion from Arab countries will not be as easy as the first trillion. The rising cost is due to the depth of the wells required. This will lead to a rise in the already soaring oil prices, resulting in new standards for the collapsing global economy.
This article is an edited translation from the Arabic Edition.
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