In August 2012, the Defense Intelligence Agency had already predicted the emergence of Islamic State, but it was not labeled as an absolute enemy. Instead, the report suggests that the terror group could be deployed as a strategic pawn of the United States:
'If the situation unravels there is the possibility of establishing a declared or undeclared Salafist principality in eastern Syria (Hasaka and der Zor), and this is exactly what the supporting powers to the opposition want, in order to isolate the Syrian regime.'
By Wided Bouchrika
Translated By Marion Pini
May 22, 2015
Previously secret documents of the U.S. Department of Defense intelligence service, the Defense Intelligence Agency, indicate that in 2012, the United States still saw Islamic State (IS) as a strategic pawn for use against the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad.
"The creation of a Salafi state in eastern Syria is exactly what [we] want."
Conservative government watchdog Judicial Watch has published on its Web site a selection of previously-classified documents from the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and Department of State.
Newly-Declassified DIA Document on 'Islamic State'
One of the documents from the Defense Intelligence Agency was circulated by DoD in August 2012. The seven-page document asserts that an "Islamic state" was needed in eastern Syria to implement Western policies in the country.
Future of the crisis
According to the report, there were two possible outcomes for the future of the crisis: either the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad survives and retains control of the country; or the situation evolves into a proxy war:
"Development of the current events into proxy war: with support of Russia, China and Iran, the regime is controlling the areas of influence along coastal territories (Tartus and Latakia), and is fiercely defending Homs, which is considered the primary transport point in Syria."
The other side in a proxy war would be the opposition backed by the West, the Gulf States and Turkey.
"On the other hand, opposition forces are trying to control the eastern areas (Hasaka and Der Zor), adjacent to the Western Iraqi provinces (Mosul and Anbar), in addition to neighboring Turkish borders. Western countries, the Gulf States and Turkey are supporting these efforts. This hypothesis is most likely in accordance with the data from recent events, which will help prepare safe havens under international sheltering, similar to what transpired in Libya when Benghazi was chosen as the command center of the temporary government."
'Exactly what we want to isolate the Syrian regime'
In August 2012, the Defense Intelligence Agency had already predicted the emergence of IS, but it was not labeled as an absolute enemy. Instead, the report suggests that the terror group could be deployed as a strategic pawn of the United States.
Posted By Worldmeets.US
"If the situation unravels there is the possibility of establishing a declared or undeclared Salafist principality in eastern Syria (Hasaka and der Zor), and this is exactly what the supporting powers to the opposition want, in order to isolate the Syrian regime, which is considered the strategic depth of the Shia expansion (Iraq and Iran)."
The paper first outlines the general situation of the conflict, but also the role of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), how the border area is constructed, which population controls the border and what the situation is, the future of the crisis and the ultimate impact on Iraq is discussed.
'Possibly enormous danger to Iraq'
On the latter point, the danger that al-Qaeda could take back its home ports of Mosul and Ramadi in Iraq is highlighted - something that we now know has been done by IS. Also toward the end of the document, it considers that IS (then ISI: Islamic State in Iraq) could declare an Islamic state thanks to a union with other terrorist groups in Iraq and Syria, which in turn could pose a huge threat to the unity of Iraq and the protection of its territory. But there are no further thoughts beyond that.
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