We may not need to consider the official and unofficial “Israeli” statements, in order to explore the repercussions on the “Israeli” psyche, that were brought about by the victory of Hizbullah – and the Syrian army – in the battle of Qalamoun and its barren lands. Perhaps the most important question in this regard, is the following: what will be the repercussions of this battle, in all of its elements, causes, and results, on the political decision-makers in Tel Aviv, and upon its military and intelligence establishment.
With regards to “Israeli” media outlets, it must be said that sometimes it bases its analysis on data given to it by political and intelligence sides, and sometimes it bases it on data provided to it by foreign media and news agencies, when it comes to particular events in the Arab world. Then it analyses based on this data.
At that time, it became apparent that the information that reached Israeli political commentators and security figures regarding the battle of Qalamoun, was limited to what they related from websites which are mostly affiliated to forces that are opposed to the resistance in Lebanon and the region. This led them to fall – at first – into the trap of unprofessionalism, after which followed confusion and (falling into) contradictions.
If we do not overlook the ‘fall’ of the political commentators in the “Israeli” media, we can explore the “Israeli” approach towards the victory of Hizbullah, according to the following:
It must be noted that official and non-official sides did not address what happened in Qalamoun from a strategic angle, (including) its impact on the conflict with Israel. However, in order to understand an aspect from the effects of Hizbullah’s victory in the battle of Qalamoun, we have to imagine even for a moment, how would the repercussions of the Qalamoun battle have been on the “Israeli” psyche, and on the bets that would be renewed and the extent to which they would pursue them, if the results in the battlefield were not in the interest of Hizbullah.
Put more directly and precisely, it can be said that from among the immediate results of a hypothetical failure of Hizbullah in its military operation are:
An increase of the Takfirist threat towards Lebanon to unprecedented levels, both towards (Lebanon) as an entity and as a people, followed by a series of political and security repercussions within Lebanon. This would be a turning point in the enemy’s estimates regarding developments in the Lebanese arena, considering the resulting bets and “Israeli” operational plans that would be based (on such developments).
Furthermore, such a result could portray an image to the “Israelis” of a Hizbullah with limited capabilities, one that would indeed find itself before the jaws of the plier – the (Israeli) enemy’s army from the south and the Takfirist threat from the east – (while also considering) the effects and (new “Israeli”) bets produced from this reality.
However, the victory that was achieved cancelled out these bets, and revealed the combat capabilities and competence of Hizbullah, which will be present in the calculations of the enemy. Especially since this victory was achieved in an area with a certain particularity, that is, it is the most rugged region in Syria and Lebanon.
In other words, the success of the military tactics of Hizbullah in a vast and very difficult geographical area, with the least amount of possible losses, lifted the enemy’s feeling of imminent danger in the Galilee region which, in respect to its geographical nature, may be easier on the Hizbullah to invade if it so decides.
Perhaps this particular point is the secret why the relevant authorities of the enemy have refrained, until now, from bringing up this issue, in order to avoid the negative repercussions that it will cause on the psyche of “Israeli” society.
Source: al-Ahed news
02-06-2015 | 09:37
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