Three noticeable matters: Lavrov, Golan, and Damascus-Ankara ثلاثة أمور لافتة: لافروف والجولان ودمشق أنقرة

Sunday, 18 September 2016

Three noticeable matters: Lavrov, Golan, and Damascus-Ankara ثلاثة أمور لافتة: لافروف والجولان ودمشق أنقرة

Three noticeable matters: Lavrov, Golan, and Damascus-Ankara

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The time of overlooking has passed, now the estimation will focus on the point and the comma. The is the common equation for three noticeable issues that have accompanied the starting of implementing the assigned truce according to the Russian US understanding about the cooperation in the war on terrorism and the political solution in Syria. In one day the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov talked about the truce, and said that there is who tries to legislate Al Nusra, and there is who impedes the classification of Ahrar Al Sham as a terrorist organization. He added threatening that Moscow will promote the five supplements of the understanding which Washington asked not to promote them and to keep them secret. After hours the Russian Ministry of Foreign affairs said that it is not possible to be silent toward the challenge which is represented by the announcement of the armed group at their forefronts the Army of Islam, Ahrar Al Sham, and the movement of Nour Al Din Al Zanki of negative position toward the truce and the understanding which has been settled between Washington and Moscow. The statement added that exerting pressure on these factions is required from Washington. Simultaneously the Israeli aircraft was bombing Syrian targets in Golan, but the modern Air defenses have combated it and dropped in one rare time one warplane and one reconnaissance plane. Simultaneously a statement has been issued by the Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs that links any agreement on the passage the coming aids from Turkey with the coordination of the Syrian government, raising the ceiling of the criticsm to the Turkish positions, describing its military actions as an agression against the Syrian sovereignty. But most importantly is the indication to the intention of combating the Turkish aviation in the Syrian airspace.

The Syrian leadership noticed that it has to share the tasks with its ally Russia in implementing the understanding, and that it has to facilitate what Russia is seeking for and what Syria wants from it to succeed into, such as facilitating the serious US accession in the war on Al Nusra front, and what is related to it as Washington’s responsibility in having control over the positions of the factions which ask to be included within the truce and to be classified as moderate opposition. So the Syrian country is applying all its obligations according to the understanding and leaving its ally Russia tracing the US reluctance in exerting pressure on the armed groups affiliated to it and its allies. So from the first day Russia spent its time in recording and observing every position, behavior, and action to remind Washington of its duties according to the understanding, in order to prevent the invoking of any pretext to renounce of the task which is waited for it after a week from the start of applying the truce. So Lavrov raised his voice loudly against Washington showing to the pubic the American mediations which show the interferences of its allies to be tolerate with Al Nusra, neutralizing Ahrar Al Sham and overlooking of the statement of the rebellious formations against the understanding, by reducing the effects of its rebellion. He threatened of promoting the supplements in which the names of these organizations have been listed as formations that agreed on their classification as terrorist and on considering them legitimate goals for the war, so he suggested that the acceptance of Moscow of the security of the supplements which are enclosed by detailed files about all these formations was in order to make it easier for Washington to apply the understanding, not to pave the way for the retreat of its obligations.

Moscow completed the task perfectly from the first day; it was decisive, resolving, and sticking to the detailed things which form at the end the essence of the understanding. Syria dedicated itself to two fronts that it condoned them before and was sufficient of showing its position and its sovereign rights, waiting for the suitable timing which now comes. The two regional teams which are preoccupied by Damascus are the sultanate and the cobweb; Turkey and Israel. Turkey which considered that normalization the relationships with Russia, the return of running the communication and the cooperation with Iran, and drawing the limits for its intervening in Syria are related to the prevention of forming connected Kurdish line. It is Turkey which Syria knows very well and knows that unless it feels of the danger of the situation and the controls of the deterrence, it will act without affectation and will expand by the force of the strength of the matter of fact in the intervention, so Damascus kept a principled position by refusing this intervention, and it considered it an aggression on the sovereignty from the beginning, but with this US Russian understanding it based on that this understanding will legitimize the US role, because it was settled through the coordination with the legitimate tasks of Russia and according to its agreement with the Syrian government. Therefore, the justification of the desecration through which the others may get strength specially the Turks falls, so Syria puts them between two bounds, either the coordination with the Syrian government even in the aids or receiving the military response to any violation that is carried out by their aircraft in the Syrian airspace. So the only exit which was left for the Turks will be going to have an understanding with Russia, which tells them without an agreement with the Syrian country there is no place for you in the Syrian field. And according to the US Russian understanding there is no place for more than two, Syria proves while preserving its sovereignty a protection to the Kurds of Syria and paving the way for them to return back to their homeland and state after they have experienced the wandering in the US dreams and nightmares.

The Israelis who are aware of the magnitude of the effect of the understanding which considers Al Nusra a goal of the US Russian war, and which will affect the security belt on which they depend on Al Nusra to form it around Golan, are aware in return of the dangers of emerging as a factor of disabling the understanding. They need a relationship with Moscow in making platforms for the Palestinian Israeli settlements, as they need it to ensure not exposing to the threats of a regional war which they fear with the return of the peace to Syria, but they have a relationship with Washington which does not allow it to profess of defending of Al Nusra, while Washington announces it as an enemy number one, even if it is aware of the magnitude of the US bitterness in doing that. So Syria knew the appropriate time for the start of the demolition of the Israeli security wall in Golan which Al Nusra forms its stones, it has put the army of the cobweb in front of a test of seeing the wall collapse, so it gets involved suggesting that the response will be as in the previous time, but it was surprised by the qualitative response, so it was forced to be regressed and to deny the fall of its two aircrafts in order not to be obliged to respond, it has absorbed the shock to take its decision, because the fury does not work, and the escalation may grant Syria the opportunity which it wants in the time of the internal calming, in order to clean the Syrian south on one hand, and exposing the fact of the relationship between Israel and who called them the armed opposition and accomplishing the deterrence balance on the borders that comforts it from the return to the agreement of disengagement which the Israelis have fallen and have to bear the sequences of what they did on the other hand.

The future of the ruling balances of the relations on the northern southern borders seems as if it will draw in the week which was determined by the US Russian understanding for the calming a preparation for the war on Al Nusra front and ISIS. Syria does not have a dead time, because the initiative is at its hand, it will draw the equations of the relations with the others today.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,