Middle East Institute: After Five Years, Has the Arab Coalition Achieved its Objectives in Yemen?

Thursday, 9 April 2020

Middle East Institute: After Five Years, Has the Arab Coalition Achieved its Objectives in Yemen?

2020-04-08

Five years on, however, the objectives of Operation Decisive Storm are far from realized, the situation on the ground is as volatile as ever and cost of war continues to rise for the kingdom. In June 2017, the termination of Qatar’s participation in the coalition marked the beginning of a decline in the coalition’s soft power, namely, its ability to shape the global discourse on the war in Yemen.

the UAE’s phased withdrawal strategy and subsequent Sudanese military drawdown substantially reduced the coalition’s power and international legitimacy. Such structural changes suggest that the coalition will likely continue to fade going forward, falling even further short of achieving its publicly stated objectives.

In this protracted war, many ironies have emerged, suggesting a loss of strategic direction within the coalition.

First, not only has the coalition failed in its initial goal of restoring the Yemeni regime in Sanaa, but it now struggles to reinstate its authority in the interim capital, Aden.

Second, the failing of Stockholm and Riyadh agreements to put adequate military pressure to negotiate a nationwide peace agreement.

Third, it now appears the battle is being fought within the so-called Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen.

In contrast to the coalition’s lack of strategy, Ansarullah has strategically increased the cost of war for the kingdom by bringing the battle to Saudi territory.

Ansarullah assembled and modified ballistic missiles, remote-controlled explosive boats, and drones. attacking vital Saudi infrastructure, including oil facilities like the Saudi Aramco site in Yanbu, and airports in Abha, Jazan, and Najran. A clear sign of a strategy gone awry to the point that Riyadh now demands the Houthis dismantle their ballistic missile and drone program.

What next: Yet another year of war?

After five years of indecisive warfare, the coalition’s publicly declared objectives remain unrealized. The lack of strategic thinking, planning, and management has hampered any military campaign that could have compelled the Houthis to negotiate peace and reinstated a functioning, uncontested government in liberated territories.

As the prospects of an end to the military conflict remain dim amid worsening intra-coalition tensions, the significance of any politically negotiated settlement soars.