Frozen Deutschland

November 18, 2021

A “perfect storm of Russian aggression during the coming winter months” is all but inevitable. Watch it on your screens while you properly freeze.

By Pepe Escobar and extensively cross-posted

As much as with “brain dead” NATO (copyright Emmanuel Macron) no one ever lost precious assets betting on the incompetence, narrow-mindedness and cowardice of political “leaders” across the Atlanticist EU.

There are two main reasons for the latest German legalese gambit of suspending the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

1. Retaliation, directly against Belarus and Russia, “guilty” of the disgraceful refugee drama at the Poland-Belarus border.
2. Politicking by the German Greens.

A high-ranking European energy executive told me, “this a game where Germany does not hold a winning hand. Gazprom is very professional. But imagine if Gazprom decided to deliberately slow down their deliveries of natural gas. It could go up tenfold, collapsing the entire EU. Russia has China. But Germany does not have a workable contingency plan.”

This ties up with a proposal that is sitting at a crucial desk in Moscow for approval for two years now, as I reported at the time: an offer by a reputable Western energy firm of $700 billion for Russia to divert their oil and gas exports to China and other Asian customers, away from the EU.

This proposal was actually the key reason for Berlin to resolutely counteract the U.S. drive to stop Nord Stream 2. Yet the torture never stops. Russia now faces an additional hurdle: a carbon tax on exports to the EU which include steel, cement and electricity. That may well be extended to oil and natural gas.

Every sentient being across the EU knows that Nord Stream 2 is the easiest path to lower natural gas prices across Europe, and not the EU’s blind neoliberal bet of buying short term in the spot market.

“They are going to freeze”

Seems like the Bundesnetzagentur, the German energy regulator, woke up from a deep slumber just to find out that the Swiss-based company Nord Stream 2 AG did not meet the conditions to be an “independent transmissions operator” and could be certified only if it was “organized in a legal form under German law.”

The fact that neither the Germans nor the Swiss company were aware of it during the long, previous, always turbulent stages is very hard to believe. So now it looks like Nord Stream 2 AG will have to establish a subsidiary under German law only for the German section of the gas pipeline.

As it stands, the company is not “in a position” to comment on details and especially “the timing of the start of the pipeline operations.”

Nord Stream 2 AG will have to transfer capital and personnel to this new subsidiary, which will then have to present a full set of documentation for certification all over again.

Translation: gas from Nord Stream 2 will be absent during the coming winter in Europe and the pipeline, at best, might start running only by mid-2022.

And that certainly ties in with the politicking angle, as the German regulators are de facto waiting for the new German ruling coalition to emerge, including the neoliberal Greens who are viscerally anti-Nord Stream and anti-Russia.

The European energy executive did not mince his words on a quite possible scenario: “If Germany does not obtain their oil and natural gas by land now they cannot fashion a fall back position, as there is not sufficient LNG capacity or oil for that matter to supply the EU this winter. They are going to freeze. Much of their economy will be forced to shut down. Unemployment will soar. It would take four years to build up LNG capacity for natural gas but who will build it for them?”

Germany has zero margin of maneuver to dictate conditions to Gazprom and Russia. The gas that Gazprom won’t sell to northern Europe will be sold to eastern and southern Europe via Turk Stream, and most of all to Asian clients, which do not engage in blackmail and pay much better than the Europeans.

What is also clear is that if by a misguided political decision Nord Stream 2 gas is eventually blocked, the fines to be collected by Gazprom from the European consortium that begged for the construction of the pipeline may exceed 200 billion euros. The consortium is made up of Engie, Shell, Uniper, Wintershall Dea and OMV.

It’s against this background that the offer on the table in Moscow becomes even more than a game-changer. The bold recommendation to the Kremlin – with financing already in place – is that Russia’s natural resources including oil and natural gas should be redirected to China, as part of the Russia-China strategic partnership.

The proposal argues that Russia needs no trade with the EU, as China is way ahead of them in most advanced technologies. That certainly provides Moscow with the upper hand in any negotiations with any German government. As I mentioned it to the European energy executive, his terse comment was, “I doubt they will desire to commit suicide.”

It’s all Putin’s fault

It would be too much to expect from German and EU politicians the clear-sightedness of the government of Serbia, which is considering importing 3 billion cubic meters of Russian natural gas annually for 10 years. Gazprom has been on the record for years demonstrating the practical, reliable and cost-conscious aspects of long-term contracts.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, commenting on the migrant crisis at the Poland-Belarus border, noted how “Poland behaves outrageously, while the leadership in Brussels applies double standards that are so apparent and naked that they can’t fail to understand that they are embarrassing themselves.”

The case of Nord Stream 2 adds extra layers to EU self- embarrassment as it concerns the wellbeing of populations already living inside Fortress Europe. Let them freeze, indeed – or pay virtual fortunes for natural gas that should be readily available.

As we all know, Germany, Nord Stream 2, Ukraine, Belarus, it’s all interlinked. And according to a Ukrainian lunatic profiting from an Atlanticist platform, it’s all Putin’s fault – guilty of conducting hybrid war against the EU.

It will be up to the “resolve of Poland and Lithuania” to “counter the Kremlin threat”. The ideal framework in this case should be the Lublin Triangle – which unites Poland and Lithuania with Ukraine. These are the lineaments of the new Iron Curtain, erected by the Atlanticists, from the Baltic to the Black Sea, to “isolate” Russia. Predictably, German Atlanticists are a crucial part of the package.

Of course, to be successful, these actors should “also seek greater U.S. and UK engagement”, with every movement complementing “the role of NATO as the ultimate guarantor of peace in the region”.

So behold, EU mortals: a “perfect storm of Russian aggression during the coming winter months” is all but inevitable. Watch it on your screens while you properly freeze.

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   

The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

The world according to Vladimir Putin

 October 23, 2021

Russian president, in Sochi, lays down the law in favor of conservatism – says the woke West is in decline

By Pepe Escobar, posted with permission and first posted at Asia Times

The plenary session is the traditional highlight of the annual, must-follow Valdai Club discussions – one of Eurasia’s premier intellectual gatherings.

Vladimir Putin is a frequent keynote speaker. In Sochi this year, as I related in a previous column, the overarching theme was “global shake-up in the 21st century: the individual, values and the state.”

Putin addressed it head on, in what can already be considered one of the most important geopolitical speeches in recent memory (a so-far incomplete transcript can be found here) – certainly his strongest moment in the limelight. That was followed by a comprehensive Q&A session (starting at 4:39:00).

Predictably, assorted Atlanticists, neocons and liberal interventionists will be apoplectic. That’s irrelevant. For impartial observers, especially across the Global South, what matters is to pay very close attention to how Putin shared his worldview – including some very candid moments.

Right at the start, he evoked the two Chinese characters that depict “crisis” (as in “danger”) and “opportunity,” melding them with a Russian saying: “Fight difficulties with your mind. Fight dangers with your experience.”

This elegant, oblique reference to the Russia-China strategic partnership led to a concise appraisal of the current chessboard:

The re-alignment of the balance of power presupposes a redistribution of shares in favor of rising and developing countries that until now felt left out. To put it bluntly, the Western domination of international affairs, which began several centuries ago and, for a short period, was almost absolute in the late 20th century, is giving way to a much more diverse system.

That opened the way to another oblique characterization of hybrid warfare as the new modus operandi:

Previously, a war lost by one side meant victory for the other side, which took responsibility for what was happening. The defeat of the United States in the Vietnam War, for example, did not make Vietnam a “black hole.” On the contrary, a successfully developing state arose there, which, admittedly, relied on the support of a strong ally. Things are different now: No matter who takes the upper hand, the war does not stop, but just changes form. As a rule, the hypothetical winner is reluctant or unable to ensure peaceful post-war recovery, and only worsens the chaos and the vacuum posing a danger to the world.

A disciple of Berdyaev

In several instances, especially during the Q&A, Putin confirmed he’s a huge admirer of Nikolai Berdyaev. It’s impossible to understand Putin without understanding Berdyaev (1874-1948), who was a philosopher and theologian – essentially, a philosopher of Christianity.

In Berdyaev’s philosophy of history, the meaning of life is defined in terms of the spirit, compared with secular modernity’s emphasis on economics and materialism. No wonder Putin was never a Marxist.

For Berdyaev, history is a time-memory method through which man works toward his destiny. It’s the relationship between the divine and the human that shapes history. He places enormous importance on the spiritual power of human freedom.

Nikolai Berdyaev. Photo: Center for Sophiological Studies

Putin made several references to freedom, to family – in his case, of modest means – and to the importance of education; he heartily praised his apprenticeship at Leningrad State University. In parallel, he absolutely destroyed wokeism, transgenderism and cancel culture promoted “under the banner of progress.”

This is only one among a series of key passages:

We are surprised by the processes taking place in countries that used to see themselves as pioneers of progress. The social and cultural upheavals taking place in the United States and Western Europe are, of course, none of our business; we don’t interfere with them. Someone in the Western countries is convinced that the aggressive erasure of whole pages of their own history – the “reverse discrimination” of the majority in favor of minorities, or the demand to abandon the usual understanding of such basic things as mother, father, family or even the difference between the sexes – that these are, in their opinion, milestones of the movement toward social renewal.

So a great deal of his 40 minute-long speech, as well as his answers, codified some markers of what he previously defined as “healthy conservatism”:

Now that the world is experiencing a structural collapse, the importance of sensible conservatism as a basis for policy has increased many times over, precisely because the risks and dangers are multiplying and the reality around us is fragile.

Switching back to the geopolitical arena, Putin was adamant that “we are friends with China. But not against anyone.”

Geoeconomically, he once again took time to engage in a masterful, comprehensive – even passionate – explanation of how the natural gas market works, coupled with the European Commission’s self-defeating bet on the spot market, and why Nord Stream 2 is a game-changer.

Afghanistan

During the Q&A, scholar Zhou Bo from Tsinghua University addressed one of the key, current geopolitical challenges. Referring to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, he pointed out that, “if Afghanistan has a problem, the SCO has a problem. So how can the SCO, led by China and Russia, help Afghanistan?”

Putin stressed four points in his answer:

• The economy must be restored;
• The Taliban must eradicate drug trafficking;
• The main responsibility should be assumed “by those who had been there for 20 years” – echoing the joint statement  after the meeting between the extended troika and the Taliban in Moscow on Wednesday; and
• Afghan state funds should be unblocked.

He also mentioned, indirectly, that the large Russian military base in Tajikistan is not a mere decorative prop.

Putin went back to the subject of Afghanistan during the Q&A, once again stressing that NATO members should not “absolve themselves from responsibility.”

He reasoned that the Taliban “are trying to fight extreme radicals.” On the “need to start with the ethnic component,” he described Tajiks as accounting for 47% of the overall Afghan population – perhaps an over-estimation but the message was on the imperative of an inclusive government.

He also struck a balance: As much as “we are sharing with them [the Taliban] a view from the outside,” he made the point that Russia is “in contact with all political forces” in Afghanistan – in the sense that there are contacts with former government officials like Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah and also Northern Alliance members, now in the opposition, who are self-exiled in Tajikistan.

Those pesky Russians

Now compare all of the above with the current NATO circus in Brussels, complete with a new “master plan to deter the growing Russian threat.”

No one ever lost money underestimating NATO’s capacity to reach the depths of inconsequential stupidity. Moscow does not even bother to talk to these clowns anymore: as Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has pointed out, “Russia will no longer pretend that some changes in relations with NATO are possible in the near future.”

Moscow from now on only talks to the masters – in Washington. After all, the direct line between the Chief of General Staff, General Gerasimov, and NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander, General Todd Wolters, remains active. Messenger boys such as Stoltenberg and the massive NATO bureaucracy in Brussels are deemed irrelevant.

This happens, in Lavrov’s assessment, right after “all our friends in Central Asia” have been “telling us that they are against … approaches either from the United States or from any other NATO member state” promoting the stationing of any imperial “counter-terrorist” apparatus in any of the “stans” of Central Asia.

And still the Pentagon continues to provoke Moscow. Wokeism-lobbyist-cum-Secretary of Defense Lloyd “Raytheon” Austin, who oversaw the American Great Escape from Afghanistan, is now pontificating that Ukraine should de facto join NATO.

That should be the last stake impaling the “brain-dead” (copyright Emmanuel Macron) zombie, as it meets its fate raving about simultaneous Russian attacks on the Baltic and Black Seas with nuclear weapons.

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   

The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

إعادة ترتيب الإقليم وفق الأجندة الأميركية… أو على إيقاع إنجازات محور المقاومة؟

 

23,10,2021

د. ميادة إبراهيم رزوق

بنظرة بانورامية لمشهد المنطقة من بحر البلطيق، مروراً بأفغانستان نحو بحر قزوين وجنوب القوقاز إلى قوى ودول محور حلف المقاومة، وكأنّ العدوين اللدودين الولايات المتحدة الأميركية وروسيا الاتحادية كلاً مع حلفائه، خاصة بعد قمة جنيف «بوتين – بايدن» في 16/06/2021  على رقعة شطرنج المنطقة يعيدون ترتيب أحجارهم وتنضيد ملفاتهم قبل الجلوس على طاولة التسويات الكبرى، والتي قد تُحسم قبل الوصول إليها إذا تدحرجت المنطقة نحو حرب كبرى شاملة، نستبعد حدوثها وفق الوقائع والمعطيات لدى المحورين.

بدأت الولايات المتحدة الأميركية وضمن مخطط الخروج الأميركي من غرب آسيا بإعادة تموضع استراتيجي جديد بترتيب مجموعة من الأوراق في عهد الإدارة الأميركية السابقة برئاسة دونالد ترامب بما يحقق نشر الفتنة وزعزعة الاستقرار، وتطويق إيران وتشديد الحصار الدبلوماسي والاقتصادي، وعرقلة مشروع الحزام والطريق الصيني، وضمان الأمن القومي لكيان الاحتلال الصهيوني، فكانت البداية مع اتفاقيات «ابراهام»، اتفاقيات التطبيع بين كيان الاحتلال الصهيوني وبعض الأنظمة الخليجية كالإمارات والبحرين بالإضافة إلى السودان (الذي لم يوقع أحرفها النهائية) والمغرب، استكمالاً لسيناريو صفقة القرن، ونقل السفارة الأميركية من تل أبيب إلى القدس، والاعتراف بالسيادة «الإسرائيلية» على الجولان المحتل، بهدف إضفاء الشرعية على كيان الاحتلال الصهيوني، وتطويق الشعب الفلسطيني، وتصفية القضية الفلسطينية التي باتت عبئاً على الأنظمة الرجعية العربية فينبغي التخلص منها، بالإضافة إلى نسج تحالفات إقليمية بأبعاد استراتيجية أخرى ترتبط بمحاولة بناء خطوط دفاع أمامية لحماية الأمن القومي لكيان الاحتلال الصهيوني، ترتكز على التعاون والتنسيق التكنولوجي والاستخبارتي والعسكري، خاصة إذا ما تضمنت عمليات رصد واعتراض جوي في مواجهة تطور قدرات محور المقاومة على مستوى الطائرات المسيرة، وصواريخ «كروز» وغيرها وفق ما تؤكده التقارير «الإسرائيلية»، وتعززت الحاجة إلى هذا المخطط، بالإضافة إلى قرار وزارة الدفاع الأميركية «البنتاغون» بنقل «إسرائيل» من القيادة الأوروبية للجيش الأميركي «إيكوم» إلى القيادة المركزية «سنتكوم» التي تشمل الشرق الأوسط، بما يسمح بتطور التنسيق بين كيان الاحتلال الصهيوني والأنظمة المطبعة استجابة لدعوات وجهتها جماعات موالية لـ «إسرائيل» من بينها «المعهد اليهودي للأمن القومي الأميركي» وهو مجموعة مقرها واشنطن تدعم التعاون العسكري الوثيق بين الولايات المتحدة الأميركية و»إسرائيل»، فقد أوضح تقرير المعهد اليهودي للأمن القومي أنه في حين أدى وجود «إسرائيل» ضمن نطاق عمليات القيادة العسكرية في أوروبا إلى منافع متبادلة واضحة على مر السنين، فإن أولوية «سنتكوم» هي «مواجهة إيران وقوى التطرف الأخرى في الشرق الأوسط». وأضاف التقرير «جميع شركائنا في المنطقة، بما في ذلك إسرائيل يتحدون حول وجهة نظر مشتركة لهذا التهديد، واتخاذ خطوات جريئة مثل الاتفاقيات الإبراهيمية لمواجهته بشكل تعاوني»، وأتى هذا الانضمام عقب إعلان السعودية في 5 كانون الثاني من العام الحالي اتفاقاً بدعم أميركي بإنهاء الخلاف مع قطر التي تستضيف أكبر قاعدة عسكرية أميركية في المنطقة، وتتمركز فيها القيادة المركزية الأميركية، وبالتالي سيتمثل ذلك بدايةً بوجود عسكري «إسرائيلي» في بلدان الأنظمة المطبعة في وفود من الضباط أو الشرطة أو الخلايا الاستخبارية، وذلك في ضوء استمرار المسار التصاعدي لمحور المقاومة في اتجاهين، اتساع نطاقه الجغرافي وتقدمه العسكري، مقابل فقدان كيان الاحتلال الصهيوني للعمق الاستراتيجي، ودونية إمكاناته على غير مستوى، وما ضاعف هذه الحاجة أيضاً فشل رهانات كيان الاحتلال على الخطط الأميركية لإسقاط النظام في إيران أو إخضاعه، كما الفشل في باقي ساحات محور المقاومة وهذا ما تضمنته تصريحات «قائد جبهة إيران» اللواء طال كالمان «رئيس الشعبة الاستراتيجية والدائرة الثالثة» لصحيفة «معاريف» بتاريخ 07/09/2021  «الأمر المدهش أنه على الرغم من الأثمان الثقيلة على المواطن الإيراني، والعقوبات الأميركية الثقيلة، والكورونا، والحضيض الاقتصادي الداخلي الأصعب في إيران منذ الحرب مع العراق في سنوات الثمانينات، إلا أنها تواصل سعــيها إلى تنفيــذ استراتيجيتها» متابعاً أن «محور المقاومة أخذ بالتوســع ويخوض معنا تنافساً استراتيجياً بعيد المدى». وأضاف» أنّ هذا التعــاون يستهدف توفير الحماية لإسرائيل في مواجهة تطور القدرات العسكرية الصاروخية والجوية لمحور المقاومة»، متابعاً: «ماوراء ذلك، يصــبح لنا عمق، فدولــة إســرائيل صغيرة وليس لديها حالياً عمــق، والصورة المعلوماتيــة المسبقة تسمح له بالاستعداد بشكل أفضــل، وأيضاً بمعالجة التهديدات البعيدة». وحذر كالمان من أنّ «تهديــد الصواريخ الدقيقة ليست بمستوى التهديد الوجــودي النووي، لكنــه ليس بعيداً عنه»، ونبّه إلى أنّ الصواريخ الدقيقة ليست حكراً على «حزب الله» في لبنان بل هي تهديد تراكمي يشمل كل ساحات الحرب، مقراً بأنّ لدى إيران مخزوناً كبيراً من القدرات الصاروخية التي تتحول إلى دقيقة بمديات  تتجاوز الـ 1000 كلم، إضافة إلى تهديدات مماثلة في اليمن والعراق وسورية، ولذلك يجب توسيع قوس المواجهة ضد إيران، ووفق ما سبق يتمكن كيان الاحتلال الصهيوني من الولوج العملياتي بدون قيود إلى البر والبحر، وبإمكانه إرسال سفنه إلى البحر الأحمر وبحر العرب وحتى الاقتراب من خليج عمان.

استمرت الإدارة الأميركية الحالية على نهج سلفها لاستكمال ترتيب أوراق أجندتها، وبخطوات متسارعة بعد قمة جنيف «بوتين- بايدن» وفق التالي:

ـ انسحبت من أفغانستان بمشهد مذل بعد أن أعادت إنتاج «داعش» وتدعيمه وتعزيزه بنقل عناصر إضافية لرفده من سورية والعراق، لضمان نشر الفوضى وتقويض الاستقرار الأمني، خاصة بعد سيطرة حركة طالبان على الحكم في أفغانستان، فبدأت هذه الحركة التكفيرية الوهابية «داعش» بتفجير المساجد والحسينيات والمدارس وقتلاً وذبحاً للأبرياء في مسلسل متواصل، حيثما وجد مسلمون من طوائف متعددة، لزرع الفتنة المذهبية بأجندة تديرها الولايات المتحدة لنشر الإرهاب والفوضى بما يقوض شراكة الصين مع الدول المجاورة ويعمل على تخريب مبادرة الحزام والطريق بكامل فروعها، ويهدد دول الجوار بتمدد الإرهاب إلى داخلها.

ـ حدوث توترات بين إيران وأذربيجان اللتين تجمعهما قواسم ثقافية واجتماعية ودينية، مع عبث تركي وحضور «إسرائيلي» وفقاً للمايسترو الأميركي:

ـ لعزل إيران عن المنطقة، من خلال منع استخدام الأراضي الإيرانية لربط منطقة نخجوان بـأذربيجان، وبالتالي قطع الاتصال الحدودي بين إيران وأرمينيا، وبالتالي قطع إحدى طرق المواصلات بين إيران وأوروبا.

ـ ربط تركيا (العضو في الناتو) ببحر قزوين عبر أذربيجان، وبالتالي توسيع حدود الناتو حتى بحر قزوين، بما يؤدي إلى تغيرات جيوسياسية في منطقة القوقاز، لن تسمح بها إيران ولجارتها الشمالية الغربية تركيا بالبدء بهذه المغامرة وتعميق هذه التوترات.

ـ تواجد قوات «إسرائيلية» وعناصر من تنظيم «داعش» على الأراضي الأذربيجانية وعلى حدود إيران، بما يجعل أذربيحان ساحة خلفية للكيان الصهيوني للتآمر على إيران، حيث من باكو ووفقاً لمسؤولين إيرانيين تمت هجمات «إسرائيلية» استهدفت البرنامج النووي الإيراني، واغتيال العالم النووي البارز محسن فخري زاده.

لذلك لجأت إيران إلى مناورة عسكرية على طول الحدود مع أذربيجان900 كلم «فاتحي خيبر» مما دفع باكو إلى العودة الدبلوماسية، حيث لدى أذربيجان مشاريع اقتصادية مهمة مع إيران مثل السكك الحديدية التي تربط أذربيجان بالخليج عبر مدينة أستارا، وكذلك خط النقل البري بين البلدين، ولايبدو أن هذه التوترات ستصل إلى أماكن خطرة.

ـ محاولة زرع كمائن متفرقة ونشر الفتن في العراق ولبنان من خلال الانتخابات العراقية، ومجزرة الطيونة في بيروت لتقليص النفوذ السياسي لتيار المقاومة والحشد الشعبي في العراق، وحزب الله في لبنان، بالإضافة إلى نزع سلاح المقاومة أو تورطه في حرب أهلية.

على المقلب الموازي يحقق المحور المناهض للهيمنة الأميركية وحلف محور المقاومة تقدماً متسارعاً في كافة الميادين نذكر منها:

ـ بدء العمل التجريبي بخط أنابيب السيل الشمالي الذي يزود أوروبا بالغاز الروسي.

ـ إنجاز الجيش اليمني الوطني واللجان الشعبية انتصارات ميدانية بمجموعة من العمليات المتتالية آخرها عمليتي فجر الانتصار وربيع النصر اللتين أدتا إلى استكمال تحرير معظم محافظة مأرب ومحافظة شبوة مدن الموارد بالغاز والنفط والماء، وبالتالي إضافة بعد اقتصادي للبعد العسكري بالتحرير.

ـ استكمال تحرير الجنوب السوري من الجماعات الإرهابية، وعودة سورية إلى دورها الإقليمي ومداها الحيوي ومكانتها الدولية عبر التنسيق الأمني بقرار الإنتــربول الدولي رفع الحظر عن دمشق، والبوابة الاقتصادية بالتنســيق مع مصر والأردن ولبنان، وفتح معبر نصيب – جابر الحــدودي، وإعــادة إحياء خط الغاز العربي، ووصول الغاز المصري والكهرباء الأردنــية إلى لبنان عبر الأراضي السورية، وكسر بعض من تفاصيل (قانون قيصر)، بعد وصول قوافل النفط الإيرانية إلى ميناء بانياس، ثم بيروت براً، بتحدّ صريح وواضح للعنجهية والبلطجة الأميركية و»الإسرائيلية».

ـ بدء الجيش العربي السوري مع حلفائه باستكمال تحرير الشمال السوري من الاحتلال التركي ومجاميع العصابات الإرهابية التكفيرية التابعة له من خلال بدء المعركة من  مدينة سرمدة الني تقع على الحدود السورية – التركية، والتي لم تتعرض للقصف منذ سبع سنوات، وشمل القصف مقرات هامة لفصيل «هيئة تحرير الشام» الإرهابي، ومنها مقر اقتصادي «شركة محروقات وتد»، بالإضافة إلى مركز نفوس وقيادة الشرطة التابعة لهم، وبالتالي استهداف كل المؤسسات التي سعت تركيا أن تثبتها في إدلب كبديل عن مؤسسات الدولة السورية، وأن أهم أهداف هذه العملية العسكرية رفض تتريك الشمال السوري، وإنهاء الوضع الشاذ فيه.

ـ عودة طهران في الأسبوع المقبل إلى مفاوضات الاتفاق النووي في فيينا بشروط إيرانية وفق سياسة الخطوة بخطوة، والتي تبدأَ بأن يقوم الأميركيون برفع العقوبات بالكامل، خاصة النفطية والمالية، لتقابلها إيران بالعودة إلى الاتفاق النووي وخفض نسبة تخصيب اليورانيوم من 60% إلى 3,5%، وخفض إنتاج أجهزة الطرد المركزي،….

وسبق كلّ ذلك معركة «سيف القدس» التي خاضتها فصائل المقاومة الفلسطينية نصرة للقدس، التي كشفت ماهية معادلة «إسرائيل أوهن من بيت العنكبوت»، نحو تكريس معادلة قواعد اشتباك جديدة «القدس تعني حرباً إقليمية»، ومنذ أسابيع قليلة عملية نفق الحرية «سجن جلبوع» التي نفذها الأسرى الأبطال الستة قبل إعادة اعتقالهم، والتي هزمت منظومة الاحتلال الأمنية والعسكرية والاستخبارية، وشكلت نقطة تحول جديدة في مسار الصراع العربي الصهيوني.

وفي الختام، نذكر ما نقلته صحيفة «جيروزاليم بوست» عن رئيس المؤتمر اليهودي العالمي رونالد لودر «إن خسارة تل أبيب التضامن الصريح عالمياً في المعركة مع غزة ضاعف الخطر الوجودي على إسرائيل»، وعلى أهمية خسارة الرأي العام، إلا أنّ الانقسام الذي يهدد وجود «إسرائيل» ليس الانقسام في الداخل «الإسرائيلي» فقط بل في العالم كله، كما تحدث عن تراجع الولاء لـ «إسرائيل»، واختراق أعدائها لحلفائها الأكثر إخلاصاً لها في الولايات المتحدة الأميركية، وهذا ماأكده أيضاً الكاتب سيث فرانتسمان بأنّ حركة المقاومة الفلسطينية وصلت إلى دعم شعبي كبير بعد الحرب الأخيرة على غزة، في الوقت الذي استهدفت الاحتجاجات إدانة «إسرائيل» في العديد من البلدان، ونشرت مقالات تنتقدها في جميع أنحاء العالم، وأضاف: «كما قادت الصين جهوداً في الأمم المتحدة لإدانة إسرائيل، واتهم أعضاء اليسار المتطرف في الحزب الديمقراطي في الولايات المتحدة إسرائيل بممارسة الفصل العنصري، ودعوا إلى وقف مبيعات الأسلحة»، كما أكد تراجع دعم «إسرائيل» حتى بين المؤيدين الرئيسيين لها في الولايات المتحدة كالإنجيليين.

في الخلاصة، لا يزال كيان الاحتلال الصهيوني يقف على «إجر ونص»، خوفاً من انتقام المقاومة اللبنانية القادم لشهدائها لا محالة، وقد يقف الآن على رجل واحدة بعد  توعد بيان غرفة عمليات حلفاء سورية  «بالرد القاسي» رداً على الغارات «الإسرائيلية» على تدمر وسط سورية التي انطلقت عبر سماء الأردن ومنطقة التنف السورية المحتلة من الأميركيين منذ خمسة أيام.

• غارات روسية سورية تستهدف مقار “تحرير الشام” في إدلب
• الجيش السوري يمنع رتلا أمريكيا من العبور إلى مدينة القامشلي (فيديو)
• سوريا “الناجي الوحيد”… تحولات جيواستراتيجية أعادت الرئيس الأسد إلى مقدمة المشهد

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   

The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

The world according to Vladimir Putin

October 23, 2021

Russian president, in Sochi, lays down the law in favor of conservatism – says the woke West is in decline

By Pepe Escobar, posted with permission and first posted at Asia Times

The plenary session is the traditional highlight of the annual, must-follow Valdai Club discussions – one of Eurasia’s premier intellectual gatherings.

Vladimir Putin is a frequent keynote speaker. In Sochi this year, as I related in a previous column, the overarching theme was “global shake-up in the 21st century: the individual, values and the state.”

Putin addressed it head on, in what can already be considered one of the most important geopolitical speeches in recent memory (a so-far incomplete transcript can be found here) – certainly his strongest moment in the limelight. That was followed by a comprehensive Q&A session (starting at 4:39:00).

Predictably, assorted Atlanticists, neocons and liberal interventionists will be apoplectic. That’s irrelevant. For impartial observers, especially across the Global South, what matters is to pay very close attention to how Putin shared his worldview – including some very candid moments.

Right at the start, he evoked the two Chinese characters that depict “crisis” (as in “danger”) and “opportunity,” melding them with a Russian saying: “Fight difficulties with your mind. Fight dangers with your experience.”

This elegant, oblique reference to the Russia-China strategic partnership led to a concise appraisal of the current chessboard:

The re-alignment of the balance of power presupposes a redistribution of shares in favor of rising and developing countries that until now felt left out. To put it bluntly, the Western domination of international affairs, which began several centuries ago and, for a short period, was almost absolute in the late 20th century, is giving way to a much more diverse system.

That opened the way to another oblique characterization of hybrid warfare as the new modus operandi:

Previously, a war lost by one side meant victory for the other side, which took responsibility for what was happening. The defeat of the United States in the Vietnam War, for example, did not make Vietnam a “black hole.” On the contrary, a successfully developing state arose there, which, admittedly, relied on the support of a strong ally. Things are different now: No matter who takes the upper hand, the war does not stop, but just changes form. As a rule, the hypothetical winner is reluctant or unable to ensure peaceful post-war recovery, and only worsens the chaos and the vacuum posing a danger to the world.

A disciple of Berdyaev

In several instances, especially during the Q&A, Putin confirmed he’s a huge admirer of Nikolai Berdyaev. It’s impossible to understand Putin without understanding Berdyaev (1874-1948), who was a philosopher and theologian – essentially, a philosopher of Christianity.

In Berdyaev’s philosophy of history, the meaning of life is defined in terms of the spirit, compared with secular modernity’s emphasis on economics and materialism. No wonder Putin was never a Marxist.

For Berdyaev, history is a time-memory method through which man works toward his destiny. It’s the relationship between the divine and the human that shapes history. He places enormous importance on the spiritual power of human freedom.

Nikolai Berdyaev. Photo: Center for Sophiological Studies

Putin made several references to freedom, to family – in his case, of modest means – and to the importance of education; he heartily praised his apprenticeship at Leningrad State University. In parallel, he absolutely destroyed wokeism, transgenderism and cancel culture promoted “under the banner of progress.”

This is only one among a series of key passages:

We are surprised by the processes taking place in countries that used to see themselves as pioneers of progress. The social and cultural upheavals taking place in the United States and Western Europe are, of course, none of our business; we don’t interfere with them. Someone in the Western countries is convinced that the aggressive erasure of whole pages of their own history – the “reverse discrimination” of the majority in favor of minorities, or the demand to abandon the usual understanding of such basic things as mother, father, family or even the difference between the sexes – that these are, in their opinion, milestones of the movement toward social renewal.

So a great deal of his 40 minute-long speech, as well as his answers, codified some markers of what he previously defined as “healthy conservatism”:

Now that the world is experiencing a structural collapse, the importance of sensible conservatism as a basis for policy has increased many times over, precisely because the risks and dangers are multiplying and the reality around us is fragile.

Switching back to the geopolitical arena, Putin was adamant that “we are friends with China. But not against anyone.”

Geoeconomically, he once again took time to engage in a masterful, comprehensive – even passionate – explanation of how the natural gas market works, coupled with the European Commission’s self-defeating bet on the spot market, and why Nord Stream 2 is a game-changer.

Afghanistan

During the Q&A, scholar Zhou Bo from Tsinghua University addressed one of the key, current geopolitical challenges. Referring to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, he pointed out that, “if Afghanistan has a problem, the SCO has a problem. So how can the SCO, led by China and Russia, help Afghanistan?”

Putin stressed four points in his answer:

• The economy must be restored;
• The Taliban must eradicate drug trafficking;
• The main responsibility should be assumed “by those who had been there for 20 years” – echoing the joint statement  after the meeting between the extended troika and the Taliban in Moscow on Wednesday; and
• Afghan state funds should be unblocked.

He also mentioned, indirectly, that the large Russian military base in Tajikistan is not a mere decorative prop.

Putin went back to the subject of Afghanistan during the Q&A, once again stressing that NATO members should not “absolve themselves from responsibility.”

He reasoned that the Taliban “are trying to fight extreme radicals.” On the “need to start with the ethnic component,” he described Tajiks as accounting for 47% of the overall Afghan population – perhaps an over-estimation but the message was on the imperative of an inclusive government.

He also struck a balance: As much as “we are sharing with them [the Taliban] a view from the outside,” he made the point that Russia is “in contact with all political forces” in Afghanistan – in the sense that there are contacts with former government officials like Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah and also Northern Alliance members, now in the opposition, who are self-exiled in Tajikistan.

Those pesky Russians

Now compare all of the above with the current NATO circus in Brussels, complete with a new “master plan to deter the growing Russian threat.”

No one ever lost money underestimating NATO’s capacity to reach the depths of inconsequential stupidity. Moscow does not even bother to talk to these clowns anymore: as Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has pointed out, “Russia will no longer pretend that some changes in relations with NATO are possible in the near future.”

Moscow from now on only talks to the masters – in Washington. After all, the direct line between the Chief of General Staff, General Gerasimov, and NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander, General Todd Wolters, remains active. Messenger boys such as Stoltenberg and the massive NATO bureaucracy in Brussels are deemed irrelevant.

This happens, in Lavrov’s assessment, right after “all our friends in Central Asia” have been “telling us that they are against … approaches either from the United States or from any other NATO member state” promoting the stationing of any imperial “counter-terrorist” apparatus in any of the “stans” of Central Asia.

And still the Pentagon continues to provoke Moscow. Wokeism-lobbyist-cum-Secretary of Defense Lloyd “Raytheon” Austin, who oversaw the American Great Escape from Afghanistan, is now pontificating that Ukraine should de facto join NATO.

That should be the last stake impaling the “brain-dead” (copyright Emmanuel Macron) zombie, as it meets its fate raving about simultaneous Russian attacks on the Baltic and Black Seas with nuclear weapons.

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   

The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

Russians are in total awe at the suicidal stupidity of the West

October 14, 2021

The Russians are openly expressing their absolute amazement at the utter stupidity of the West. 

Three examples:

A recent article by Medvedev:

Dmitry Medvedev: Why contacts with the current Ukrainian leadership are meaningless

Dmitry Medvedev: Why contacts with the current Ukrainian leadership are meaningless

Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev addressed Kommersant with his new article, titled: Five short polemical theses Kindly note that this is a machine … Continue reading

Dmitry Medvedev: Why contacts with the current Ukrainian leadership are meaninglessThe Vineyard of the Saker

Putin’s speech at the recent energy forum in Russia:

Russian President Vladimir Putin: Speech at Russian Energy Week (REW) international forum

Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a speech at the plenary session of Russian Energy Week (REW) international forum Future of Russian fuel and energy industry, prospects for international cooperation and … Continue reading

Russian President Vladimir Putin: Speech at Russian Energy Week (REW) international forumThe Vineyard of the Saker

Shall I even bother to list what caused such reactions?

The self-imposed energy crisis in which the EU is BOTH trying to delay/stop NS2 while AT THE SAME TIME demanding that Russia increase her energy output?

As for the Ukrainiane, the Putin just offered them, again, not for $1500/cubic meters but for $175.  But this US vassal state proudly rejects any such offers.

The fact that Uncle Shmuel promised his “molecules of freedom” to the EU but is now selling these molecules to Asia (which has the means to pay much more). Yet the EU remains as subservient  to the USA as ever…

Or the fact that the entire, united, consolidated western media accuses Russia of creating the crisis while, in reality, not only did Russia fulfill all her contractual obligations but even INCREASED (by 10% if I remember correctly) her sales above her contractual obligations?  Putin repeated many times “tell us what you need, give us a contract to sign and we will deliver whatever you need!”

Then the there Victoria “fuck the EU” Nuland who, apparently, demanded that the Russian unilaterally lift Russian counter-sanctions while the US would not.

Here is how the western elites seem to be “thinking” (I am being generous here).

1. We accuse Russia of everything and anything
2. Then these Russian bastards have the nerve to demand evidence
3. We accuse them some more
4. And then these Russian bastards have the nerve to refer to facts
5. Then we tell them that we will sanction them
6. And then these Russian bastards have the nerve to counter-sanction us
7. Then we engage in military exercises right along the Russian border
8. And then these Russian bastards have the nerve to engage in military exercise also right along the Russian border
9. Then, to try scare them to “negotiate from a position of strength” with our empty words about being invincible
10. And then these Russian bastards design and deploy weapons systems we can only dream about
11. Then we tell the Russian we want them to remain neutral while we deal with the “Chinese threat” (to whom?)
12. And then these Russian bastards laugh their heads off

I will stop here, but I want to stress that Putin and plenty of Russian analysts are saying: the consolidated West is so totally out of touch with reality that it is, in essence, committing suicide.  Putin and others have also said the following many times already: “we don’t need to do anything, nothing, just watch how the West self-destructs“.

About the Ukraine: please read Medvedev’s article carefully.  Some say that it was not written by him, but by Putin.  The most likely explanation is that this text was prepared, vetted and approved by the Security Council of the Russian Federation (where Medvedev hold the position of Deputy Chairman) and that the reason why Medvedev signed it was diplomacy: he could be much more direct than President Putin, but you can be sure that this articles does express Putin’s point of view.

The Russians are now openly calling the Ukraine a vassal state of the USA and say that it makes no sense to talk to the Ukies, only to their masters, hence the visit of Nuland to Russia.

The Russians are not (yet?) officially openly calling the entire EU a vassal state of the USA, but they are strongly suggesting it.

So from the Russian’s point of view, only the USA retains at least some agency and is, therefore, worth talking to.

Yet the pre-2021 USA is dead and gone.

What’s left is a deeply dysfunctional society where the ruling elites seem to care only about gender fluidity and tranny rights, body positivity,  Woke ideology, “inclusive mathematics” and even a homosexual Superman (which ought to then be renamed “superperson” I suppose!).  Still, the Russians will still talk to this wannabe Wakanda entity, if only because the latter still has nukes (and quite a lot of momentum left, even dead) left, but they don’t feel ANY need to take it very seriously or do much about it.

As I have written many times before, Russia’s future in not in the West, but in the South (Central Asia, Middle-East), East (China) and North (Arctic).

As for the insane asylum called “Europe”, the Russians will let “general Winter” deal with them and try to bring them from “its multicultural lala land” and the worship of Greta Thunberg back to reality.

Hope dies last I suppose…

I will end with a personal anecdote.  While studying at the School of International Service (SIS) at the American University I had an absolutely fantastic teacher, a former Naval intel guy of Polish origin.  His lessons were absolutely superb, each time.  One day, we did something really interesting (and fun!): for half of the class we read letter of WWII German officers serving on the Eastern Front in the early phases of the invasion: they were full of the usual stuff about Russian subhumans getting their asses kicked by the “culture-carrying master race” (Kulturträger Herrenvolk).  In the second half of the class, we also read letter written by German officers, but after Stalingrad in which they were actually calling Russian quasi-superhumans.  The contrast was absolutely amazing.

Nothing sobers up somebody drunk on ideology as a brutal confrontation with a reality which cannot be denied.

The same happened to the French, by the way.  The Russian word shval’ (шваль) roughly means scum/trash/worthless comes from the French word “cheval”, meaning horse.  Can you guess why?  Because the retreating French had to use their dead horses for food!  For details, I HIGHLY recommend this book “Les Cahiers du capitaine Coignet” – these are the diary notes of Jean-Roch Coignet, who participated in all the Napoleonic wars.  It is a fascinating read and an eye opener on how a French solider lived through all these years.

I can just imagine how the current mass insanity in the West will go down in history books.  Maybe as the dumbest and most incredible self-destruction in history?

Andrei

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   

The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!