Kadima, Likud Are Neck-and-Neck with 4 Days to Go

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06/02/2009 Likud and Kadima are in a neck-and-neck race to be the next Knesset's largest party, according to a consensus of polls taken ahead of Friday, the last date polls can be published before next Tuesday's election. The polls showed the gap between the two parties continuing to narrow: It is now down to only two seats in Likud's favor.

According to Haaretz, Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party continues to surge: The latest poll, which surveyed 1,000 people - double the usual number - showed it winning 18 seats, up from 15 last week. If this forecast proves accurate, Labor will be relegated, for the first time in its history, to the fourth-largest party, with only 14 seats.

The close race between Likud and Kadima has finally injected some long-overdue excitement into the campaign. A few weeks ago, Likud seemed to have victory sewed up. Now it is in real danger of losing out to Kadima.

But when it comes to forming a coalition, Likud still has a clear edge over its rival: Even in the unlikely event of Lieberman choosing to throw his support behind Kadima chairwoman Tzipi Livni rather than Likud's Benjamin Netanyahu, the only coalition Livni could form would be highly unstable. And without Lieberman, she has no coalition at all.

According to a poll conducted by Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth in conjunction with Dr. Mina Zemach and the Dahaf Polling Institute, the Likud would win 25 mandates and Kadima – 23.

The poll also indicated that Yisrael Beiteinu stands to become the third largest party in the 18th Knesset with about 19 seats. Labor will win some 16 seats, making it the fourth largest party; Shas stands to have 10 mandates, United Torah Judaism follows with six, Meretz with five, Hadash stands to have four seats, as does the National Union, Habayit Hayehudi and United Arab List-Ta'al follow with three seats each and Balad stands to win two mandates.

A Jerusalem Post/Smith Research poll found that the Right would win some 65 seats, led by the Likud's 26 and Israel Beiteinu's 17-18. The Left would win some 55 seats, led by Kadima's 23 and Labor's 14. Likud's three-seat lead over Kadima is down from six mandates when the last Smith poll was published January 2. While Kadima has remained stagnant since then, Likud has lost three seats to Avigdor Lieberman's resurgent Israel Beiteinu.

Other polls showed similar trends. A Panels poll taken for Channel 2's Web site found that the gap between Likud and Kadima had fallen to only one seat. The largest gap between Likud and Kadima is six seats, in a Gal Hadash poll for Israel Hayom.

Over the course of the campaign, both Likud and Kadima have lost seats. Likud, however, has lost more, mainly to Lieberman - in part thanks to Kadima's vicious attacks on Netanyahu. Netanyahu therefore plans to spend the last few days before the election in a major drive to win these votes back, primarily by warning that a vote for any smaller rightist party increases the chances of Kadima becoming the largest party and being given first crack at forming a government.

With regard to the overall right-left split, however, the right has maintained a consistent edge throughout the campaign. The latest poll gives the leftist bloc only 54 seats, including eight for the Arab parties, which would not actually be included in any government - and which dislike Livni as much as they do Netanyahu. The rightist bloc, in contrast, has 66 seats. This gives Netanyahu a choice of four possible coalitions: an exclusively rightist-religious one (which he does not want), a rightist-religious one with the addition of Labor, a rightist-religious one with the addition of Kadima, or a government with both Labor and Kadima plus a few smaller parties.

However, according to Haaretz, if Likud indeed wins fewer than 30 seats, none of these configurations would be stable: Likud would have little ability to impose its own agenda, and the coalition might well fall apart swiftly. As a result, Likud officials are already up in arms about the mismanaged campaign, and even if the party wins, the knives are liable to come out afterward.

If Yisrael Beiteinu does become the third largest party, Lieberman will be able to demand a senior ministerial portfolio for himself - defense, finance or foreign affairs. Labor, in this scenario, would not be able to veto the larger party's participation in the government, which is why Labor chairman Ehud Barak has been careful to say that he does not rule out sitting in a coalition with Lieberman. With only 14 seats, however, he is likely to have trouble overruling members of his party who would prefer to have Labor remain in opposition.

Likud chairman Netanyahu expressed concern on Thursday that if too many right-wing voters cast ballots for the Likud's satellite parties, his party could end up losing the election despite leading the entire campaign. "Most of the people in the national camp want to see me as prime minister and want the Likud's policies," Netanyahu told a packed audience of some 250 English-speaking Likud supporters at Jerusalem's Crown Plaza Hotel.

"But they all think I'm going to get elected anyway, so they think they can vote for other parties in the national camp. If they do that, the gap between Likud and Kadima narrows. And if that happens, there could be a very unfortunate result."

Livni (Kadima), meanwhile, expressed satisfaction with the narrowing gap in the polls. An internal Kadima poll conducted by party pollster Kalman Geyer Wednesday night found that the party actually had a one-seat lead. "I'm going to win against all odds," Livni said in closed conversations Thursday. "This is a historic opportunity, and I believe the public will make it happen. The momentum of the last week and a half will bring victory."