Difficult Issues Remain in Lebanon-Syria Relations Tina Wolfe Bio 24 Apr 2009
World Politics Review
BEIRUT, Lebanon -- On the surface, the opening of the Lebanese embassy in Damascus last month and of the Syrian Embassy in Beirut in December is a historic milestone, signaling a new era in Lebanese-Syrian relations. But substantive progress in the relationship remains slow and observers say it is unlikely to gain pace until after June's parliamentary elections in Lebanon.
In the past year, Lebanese-Syrian relations have been encouraged by domestic, regional and international influences. Principal among these has been the end of Syria's diplomatic isolation after the formation of a Lebanese unity government in May 2008 ended a six-month period in which that country lacked a president. Israel agreed to indirect peace negotiations brokered by Turkey, French President Nicolas Sarkozy invited Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to Paris, and the Saudis -- who broke off relations with Syria after former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri's assassination -- also renewed bilateral talks with Damascus. Since President Barack Obama has come to office, several U.S. delegations have also visited both countries in an effort to re-engage Syria.
At a summit last August, Lebanese President Michel Suleiman and Assad promoted the renewal of diplomatic ties between the two long-feuding neighbors. A joint decree on mutual cooperation followed, whereby the two sides agreed to establish embassies, demarcate borders, tackle corruption, cooperate economically and commit to Arab initiatives in the Arab-Israeli conflict.
While the first stage of reviving diplomatic ties at the ambassadorial level is complete, substantive progress on several issues of contention has been slow. Skeptics continue to question Syria's motives, believing it is only paying lip service to improved relations. Optimists say that the process of reconciliation requires trust-building and cautious diplomacy given the thorny issues that lie ahead. Those issues include:
Border demarcation. The 198-mile border between both countries has never been formally settled. Lebanon's ruling majority and various U.N. resolutions have repeatedly called for the settling of borders to secure Lebanon's sovereignty and independence, and to seal what has become a smuggling route for goods, drugs, arms and militants. The joint statement issued in August 2008 called for resuming efforts, in accordance with mutually acceptable mechanisms, to define and demarcate the frontier.
Missing persons. Advocacy groups in Lebanon claim that more than 600 Lebanese, many of whom are believed to be held in Syrian prisons, went missing during and after the civil war, and are calling on both countries and the U.N. to launch a full investigation into their fate and whereabouts. Until now, Damascus has denied these allegations, while Lebanese authorities have remained passive on the issue. For its part, Syria claims that 800 of its nationals went missing from 1976-1990. The two countries' leaders have also agreed to move forward on this sensitive topic.
Economic ties. The two countries' economies offer opportunities for synergy, especially in light of the global downturn that has further weakened an already struggling Syrian economy. As Rami Khoury, editor-at-large of Beirut's Daily Star newspaper, wrote recently, "The Lebanese are well placed to help expand Syria's job market and build economic partnerships that will attract foreign investment and expand tourism, but they can only do so if and when relations between the two states are normalized."
Karim Makdisi, assistant professor of international relations at the American University of Beirut, agrees. Lebanon has "too many graduates in all sorts of things -- way too many bank managers, [and] way too many computer engineers. . . . Syria is a natural place for Lebanese professionals to go to work," he says.
But economic ties are also tarnished by what Mona Yacoubian, from the U.S. Institute of Peace, calls "cronyism capitalism." In one of her briefings, she warned that both countries are linked "through a complex web of informal business connections and family ties" that feed off "entrenched networks of patronage and corruption," jeopardizing the establishment of transparent democracies on both sides of the border. In principle, the leaders of both countries have agreed to address this issue. How this translates into practical action remains to be seen.
Hariri tribunal. The international tribunal created to try the suspected killers of former PM Rafik Hariri got underway in the Hague last month. Supporters of Hariri and key allies from the governing March 14 alliance blame Syria for his assassination, a charge Damascus steadfastly denies. Four Lebanese generals thought to be connected to Syrian-backed security structures are in custody for their alleged involvement. Many Lebanese are concerned that the Hague proceedings may trigger violence intended to prevent cooperation with it. They also worry that if evidence implicating Syrian authorities is proven, this could degenerate into civil strife between pro- and anti-Syrian factions within Lebanon, thus jeopardizing cross-border ties.
So far, Syria has said it will cooperate with the tribunal, and Lebanese politicians have toned down their inflammatory rhetoric against the Syrian regime. It is still unclear how Damascus will react should high-level members of its government be prosecuted.
Treaty revisions. Many Lebanese politicians and observers are demanding that treaties signed by Lebanon and Syria in the early 1990s be revised because they are either unfairly biased towards Syrian hegemony, are outdated or have never been fully implemented. They also question the role of the Syrian-Lebanese Higher Council (formed in the early 1990s), which for years served a distinct political purpose but has now lost relevance with the parallel embassy openings.
Hezbollah's disarmament. One of the most contentious issues of all has not even been publicly addressed by Syrian and Lebanese leaders. Despite several U.N. Security Council resolutions, and international and Lebanese cabinet majority pressure, the Iranian- and Syrian-backed Shiite militant group refuses to lay down its arms. Most analysts concur that several things must happen to pave the way for Hezbollah's disarmament: A strong Lebanese state must emerge that is just, accountable and representative of all of Lebanon's sectarian communities; the Lebanese Army must be bolstered so that the "Party of God" might consider subordinating its well-trained forces and arms to its authority; the Golan Heights must be returned so that Syria might in turn withdraw its military backing to the resistance; and a "non-aggression" peace deal between Israel and Lebanon must be brokered so that Hezbollah's military purpose is rendered obsolete.
What Lies Ahead
Observers expect little substantial progress on these stubborn issues until after Lebanon's June 7 general elections, once the makeup of the next cabinet and government is settled. The electoral race has intensified in recent weeks, with the major parties unveiling their candidates and platforms, and opinion polls are predicting a close race between the two competing blocs.
The Hezbollah-led March 8 coalition, which includes predominantly Shiite and some Christian factions, has called for a unity government with the minority holding veto power regardless of who wins. On the other hand, March 14, which represents the Sunni majority as well as some Christan and Druze factions, has threatened to boycott a government that has Hezbollah at its helm -- reaffirming concerns that last year's Doha agreement securing the present unity government only achieved a fragile truce.
The stakes are high in an election that could either lead toward national reconciliation or deepen sectarian divisions. Either way, "the Lebanese president has confirmed [that regardless] of the election turnout, he will ensure a unity government is in place," says Karam Karam, program director at the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies.
Once the post-election dust has settled, and assuming it doesn't precipitate a slide into chaos or political gridlock, Karam believes that the next step in the normalization of Lebanese-Syrian ties should happen at the prime ministerial level. "Some of these [issues] can be agreed between the Lebanese and the Syrians directly, but others [such as the status of the Shebaa Farms and Hezbollah's disarmament] will require international mediation."
Tina Wolfe is a freelance journalist currently based in Beirut.
Photo: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Lebanese President Michel Suleiman, Paris, France, July 2008 (Photo by Syrian Foreign Ministry).
In the past year, Lebanese-Syrian relations have been encouraged by domestic, regional and international influences. Principal among these has been the end of Syria's diplomatic isolation after the formation of a Lebanese unity government in May 2008 ended a six-month period in which that country lacked a president. Israel agreed to indirect peace negotiations brokered by Turkey, French President Nicolas Sarkozy invited Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to Paris, and the Saudis -- who broke off relations with Syria after former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri's assassination -- also renewed bilateral talks with Damascus. Since President Barack Obama has come to office, several U.S. delegations have also visited both countries in an effort to re-engage Syria.
At a summit last August, Lebanese President Michel Suleiman and Assad promoted the renewal of diplomatic ties between the two long-feuding neighbors. A joint decree on mutual cooperation followed, whereby the two sides agreed to establish embassies, demarcate borders, tackle corruption, cooperate economically and commit to Arab initiatives in the Arab-Israeli conflict.
While the first stage of reviving diplomatic ties at the ambassadorial level is complete, substantive progress on several issues of contention has been slow. Skeptics continue to question Syria's motives, believing it is only paying lip service to improved relations. Optimists say that the process of reconciliation requires trust-building and cautious diplomacy given the thorny issues that lie ahead. Those issues include:
Border demarcation. The 198-mile border between both countries has never been formally settled. Lebanon's ruling majority and various U.N. resolutions have repeatedly called for the settling of borders to secure Lebanon's sovereignty and independence, and to seal what has become a smuggling route for goods, drugs, arms and militants. The joint statement issued in August 2008 called for resuming efforts, in accordance with mutually acceptable mechanisms, to define and demarcate the frontier.
Missing persons. Advocacy groups in Lebanon claim that more than 600 Lebanese, many of whom are believed to be held in Syrian prisons, went missing during and after the civil war, and are calling on both countries and the U.N. to launch a full investigation into their fate and whereabouts. Until now, Damascus has denied these allegations, while Lebanese authorities have remained passive on the issue. For its part, Syria claims that 800 of its nationals went missing from 1976-1990. The two countries' leaders have also agreed to move forward on this sensitive topic.
Economic ties. The two countries' economies offer opportunities for synergy, especially in light of the global downturn that has further weakened an already struggling Syrian economy. As Rami Khoury, editor-at-large of Beirut's Daily Star newspaper, wrote recently, "The Lebanese are well placed to help expand Syria's job market and build economic partnerships that will attract foreign investment and expand tourism, but they can only do so if and when relations between the two states are normalized."
Karim Makdisi, assistant professor of international relations at the American University of Beirut, agrees. Lebanon has "too many graduates in all sorts of things -- way too many bank managers, [and] way too many computer engineers. . . . Syria is a natural place for Lebanese professionals to go to work," he says.
But economic ties are also tarnished by what Mona Yacoubian, from the U.S. Institute of Peace, calls "cronyism capitalism." In one of her briefings, she warned that both countries are linked "through a complex web of informal business connections and family ties" that feed off "entrenched networks of patronage and corruption," jeopardizing the establishment of transparent democracies on both sides of the border. In principle, the leaders of both countries have agreed to address this issue. How this translates into practical action remains to be seen.
Hariri tribunal. The international tribunal created to try the suspected killers of former PM Rafik Hariri got underway in the Hague last month. Supporters of Hariri and key allies from the governing March 14 alliance blame Syria for his assassination, a charge Damascus steadfastly denies. Four Lebanese generals thought to be connected to Syrian-backed security structures are in custody for their alleged involvement. Many Lebanese are concerned that the Hague proceedings may trigger violence intended to prevent cooperation with it. They also worry that if evidence implicating Syrian authorities is proven, this could degenerate into civil strife between pro- and anti-Syrian factions within Lebanon, thus jeopardizing cross-border ties.
So far, Syria has said it will cooperate with the tribunal, and Lebanese politicians have toned down their inflammatory rhetoric against the Syrian regime. It is still unclear how Damascus will react should high-level members of its government be prosecuted.
Treaty revisions. Many Lebanese politicians and observers are demanding that treaties signed by Lebanon and Syria in the early 1990s be revised because they are either unfairly biased towards Syrian hegemony, are outdated or have never been fully implemented. They also question the role of the Syrian-Lebanese Higher Council (formed in the early 1990s), which for years served a distinct political purpose but has now lost relevance with the parallel embassy openings.
Hezbollah's disarmament. One of the most contentious issues of all has not even been publicly addressed by Syrian and Lebanese leaders. Despite several U.N. Security Council resolutions, and international and Lebanese cabinet majority pressure, the Iranian- and Syrian-backed Shiite militant group refuses to lay down its arms. Most analysts concur that several things must happen to pave the way for Hezbollah's disarmament: A strong Lebanese state must emerge that is just, accountable and representative of all of Lebanon's sectarian communities; the Lebanese Army must be bolstered so that the "Party of God" might consider subordinating its well-trained forces and arms to its authority; the Golan Heights must be returned so that Syria might in turn withdraw its military backing to the resistance; and a "non-aggression" peace deal between Israel and Lebanon must be brokered so that Hezbollah's military purpose is rendered obsolete.
What Lies Ahead
Observers expect little substantial progress on these stubborn issues until after Lebanon's June 7 general elections, once the makeup of the next cabinet and government is settled. The electoral race has intensified in recent weeks, with the major parties unveiling their candidates and platforms, and opinion polls are predicting a close race between the two competing blocs.
The Hezbollah-led March 8 coalition, which includes predominantly Shiite and some Christian factions, has called for a unity government with the minority holding veto power regardless of who wins. On the other hand, March 14, which represents the Sunni majority as well as some Christan and Druze factions, has threatened to boycott a government that has Hezbollah at its helm -- reaffirming concerns that last year's Doha agreement securing the present unity government only achieved a fragile truce.
The stakes are high in an election that could either lead toward national reconciliation or deepen sectarian divisions. Either way, "the Lebanese president has confirmed [that regardless] of the election turnout, he will ensure a unity government is in place," says Karam Karam, program director at the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies.
Once the post-election dust has settled, and assuming it doesn't precipitate a slide into chaos or political gridlock, Karam believes that the next step in the normalization of Lebanese-Syrian ties should happen at the prime ministerial level. "Some of these [issues] can be agreed between the Lebanese and the Syrians directly, but others [such as the status of the Shebaa Farms and Hezbollah's disarmament] will require international mediation."
Tina Wolfe is a freelance journalist currently based in Beirut.
Photo: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Lebanese President Michel Suleiman, Paris, France, July 2008 (Photo by Syrian Foreign Ministry).
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