In reality, Saddam Hussein was the region's last belligerent interventionist. It would have been cheaper to contain his ambitions and wait him out. But having removed him from power, the Bush administration essentially removed the last threat of cross-border warfare -- "grandfathered" from the Cold War-era -- that justified a significant forward military presence.
The key to maintaining stability in the region will increasingly shift away from military coercion and toward the regional and global consensus over economic integration. That's what I meant when I said yesterday that I find the world's zones of integration and opportunity more compelling than its zones of conflict and instability. As the center of gravity continues to shift toward the former, it will exert a growing influence over the latter.
As for the one post-Cold War strategic justification for a continued U.S. military presence in the region -- i.e., al-Qaida -- that's an effort best conducted indirectly through assistance programs, and robust international policing combined with intelligence and targeted special operations.
When the Iraq War finally does wind down, I have a hunch that the wake of the returning troops will pull most of the U.S. advanced military presence throughout the region back home with it. And despite the intentions of the war's architects, the Bush administration will have been the initiator of America's military disengagement from the region."
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