Via Friday -Lunch-Club
. pledging to go toe to toe with Israel in the next campaign ..."
After the Leveretts (right on the money) , one needs a heavy dose of Schenker-Lewitt anxiety... one gets the feeling that they are asking for the 'Mughnieh retaliation',... WINEP's/ here
"..... Two years after Hizballah military commander Imad Mughniyah was assassinated in Damascus -- prompting Nasrallah to declare an "open war" on Israel, the presumed perpetrator -- the group has yet to successfully retaliate....During his February 16, 2010 speech marking the martyrdom of Mughniyah and other Hizballah heroes, Nasrallah rationalized the conspicuous lack of significant retaliation: "Our options are open and we have all the time in the world....[W]e are the ones to choose the time and place and target." He also suggested that Hizballah had not yet found a target that "rises to the level" of Mughniyah.Meanwhile, the group has been preparing for a conventional fight against Israel by stockpiling weapons in the south in violation of UN Security Council resolutions......These discoveries represent only a fraction of the weapons Hizballah has procured during its most recent massive military buildup. Since the 2006 war with Israel, the group has acquired an estimated 40,000 rockets and -- with Syria's help -- reportedly improved the quality of its arsenal. In addition to boosting the range of this stockpile, Syria may have provided the organization with the Russian-made shoulder-fired Igla-S antiaircraft system, which is capable of downing Israeli F-16s. ..... U.S. officials have already confirmed in the Arab press that Hizballah is training with Syria on the antiquated SA-2 antiaircraft system.
To complement its upgraded arsenal, Hizballah recently spelled out a new, more aggressive military posture toward Israel. Since the 2006 war, rumors (Schenker & Lewitt read DEBKA!) have persisted that the group would cross the border and "take the fighting to Israel" in the next conflict. During his February 16, speech, Nasrallah offered a new vision of strategic parity with Israel, if not an advanced conception of the organization's longstanding "balance of terror" strategy.Deriding Israel's "Iron Dome" missile defense system as a "science fiction movie," Nasrallah upped the ante by pledging to go toe to toe with Israel in the next campaign....
If Hizballah succeeds in avenging Mughniyah by striking an Israeli target -- whether on the border or abroad -- it could set off another round of fighting similar to that of 2006. This time, however, other actors could well enter the fray. If one takes Damascus at its word, Syria may decide to participate in the next Israeli-Hizballah war, a development that could spark a region-wide conflagration. At the moment, Hizballah may be keeping its powder dry on orders from Tehran, in anticipation of an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. Still, avenging Mughniyah is a key priority for the group, and its success or failure in meeting this goal could be the difference between the current status quo and a regional war."
No comments:
Post a Comment