The sage of Lebanon, Dr. Hoss explained that a civil war is unlikely given the attitudes of the young generation and the fact that none of the sects could successfully confront the Opposition led by Hezbollah and western powers lack credibility here.
The US government expects that each of these named individuals, including several Hezbollah leaders, will be indicted and convicted, almost certainly in absentia.
It was a rare visit indeed by an American Ambassador with the US Embassy labeled megalomaniac Aoun . The visit by the US Ambassador reflected Aoun’s newly enhanced political status this weekend. Ms. Connelly said that “the United States remains steadfast in its support for Lebanon’s state institutions through our robust military, security, and economic development assistance. We expect a new government will emerge through constitutional procedures, and our strong partnership with Lebanon will obviously endure.”
Moreover, the momentum favors Hezbollah since it picked up support from Walid Jumblatt’s five member Progressive Socialist Party Parliamentary bloc, after Jumblatt broke with Washington in 2008 (Walid delayed announcing him switch until 2009 just in case Washington wanted to make emends which apparently they did not). What caused Jumblatt to bolt from March 14 was his friend Jeffrey Feltman’s failure to deliver on promised support for Jumblatt’s very risky May 2008 political challenge to Hezbollah. His friend Feltman pledged “all the help you need Walid. You can take it to the bank.” Jumblatt has stated publicly that he felt ‘stiffed’ by the Americans but he still likes Jeffrey personally, if not politically.
Frankly, there is little the Obama Administration can do that it has not tried before to squeeze Lebanon and it has little influence over events here partly due to the facts that the US is way overstretched in the region and is barely taken seriously in Lebanon these days.
Moreover, President Obama is said by one Congressional source to believe that Hezbollah is not interested in the hands on, “Jimmy Carter” style of governing for Lebanon or being involved in dealing with every detail of Lebanon’s very complicated sectarian system. The White House is said to expect Hezbollah to play a major role in forming the next government and some State Department staffers believe that it may even play a constructive role in shaping a policy statement that will govern the day to day running of the government. Few, but the Israel lobby in Washington believe, or even mention, the idea that Hezbollah has any interest in an Islamic Republic system for Lebanon, repeatedly disavowed by Hezbollah officials including Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah is expected to increase its focus on Israel and continue to apply its skills and manpower to build a regional deterrence to Israeli aggression while working for domestic tranquility and stability. In short, one Congressional staffer via email said “Washington is not panicked by events in Lebanon at this time. We have bigger problems in the region and we’ll watch the STL’s progress and see what happens as a result of the indictments. But for sure we will not sit on our hands if things get out of hand.” The White House is said to be considering French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s idea of creating a “contact group” comprised of United States, France, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey to negotiate a solution to the latest crisis.
There continues to be much speculation about the timing of the Special Tribunal indictments and what they will mean on the street. Bookies at the Casino de Liban near Jounieh have odds that those indicted will be named publicly on next month’s valentine’s day, the 6th anniversary of the Hariri murder.
Others are holding their bets arguing that using that date would make the STL prosecutor’s office appear too politicized, a charge Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare has been chafing under for more than a year.
The STL has said that the names of those indicted will be kept sealed when prosecutor Bellemare sends them to Pre-Trial Judge Daniel Fransen. The public will likely learn the names of those indicted when arrest warrants are issued by the Court.
Despite civil war still being talked about as a possibility here in Lebanon, it has proven impossible to ignite to date even though it would suit US-Israel political goals. The sage of Lebanon, former Prime Minister Salem el Hoss predicts Lebanon is now headed for a long period of governmental stagnation while domestic and foreign actors angle for political and military advantages. Dr. Hoss explained that a civil war is unlikely given the attitudes of the young generation and the fact that none of the sects could successfully confront the Opposition led by Hezbollah and western powers lack credibility here.More likely would be Israel undertaking a White House green lighted invasion of Lebanon to degrade Hezbollah and Syria as a forward base-up weakening of Iran from ground level.
Congressional sources report that the Pentagon disagrees with Israel and intend to attack not from the base but from above the top of the Resistance pyramid which is Iran. The US will hit Iran hard thus hoping to open up another attempt to peel away Syria and force them to accept a peace deal with Israel.
Well almost.
The enthusiastic young man did not believe his counsel should apply to the case of former P.M. Rafik Hariri, who while not the first PM to be killed in office, is the first one to be killed with such powerful friends insisting on “justice.”
Dr. Franklin Lamb is Director of the Sabra Shatila Foundation.
Beirut Mobile: +961-70-497-804
Office: +961-01-352-127
He is working with the Palestine Civil Rights Campaign in Lebanon on drafting legislation which, after 62 years, would, if adopted by Lebanon’s Cabinet and Parliament grant the right to work and to own a home to Lebanon’s Palestinian Refugees. One part of the PCRC legislative project is its online Petition which can be viewed and signed at:
petitiononline.com/ssfpcrc/petition.html.
fplamb@palestinecivilrightscampaign.org.
Franklin Lamb’s book on the Sabra-Shatila Massacre, International Legal Responsibility for the Sabra-Shatila Massacre, now out of print, was published in 1983, following Janet’s death and was dedicated to Janet Lee Stevens. He was a witness before the Israeli Kahan Commission Inquiry, held at Hebrew University in Jerusalem in January 1983.
Please check our website for UPDATES:
http://www.palestinecivilrightscampaign.org/
River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian
No comments:
Post a Comment