Sanaa is about to fall in the hands of the Houthis. It is true they reached the city three times before and each time they would retreat at the last minute. But this time seems different. Abdel Malik al-Houthi’s group seems determined to reach its objective. It wants to clearly translate its military power and the influence of its regional alliances into political power and a piece of the Yemeni cake. The regional conflict with Saudi Arabia clearly constitutes a large part of the picture. This, however, is not new. What is different this time, is that the rules of engagement that were set in place have changed.
Sanaa – Regional players were keen not to allow the confrontation in Yemen to reach a point that forces Saudi Arabia to withdraw its resources from the Levant to focus on the country about which King Abdul Aziz is said to have told his children on his deathbed that their glory is in its poverty and their poverty in its glory.
The extent of Houthi expansion in Yemen appeared clearly from the moment they announced control of the Omran province, which is adjacent to the capital, after a series of battles headed towards Sanaa. In the first stage of expansion, the Houthis had to completely secure the borders of Sanaa and, more importantly, monitor any distance between them and their adversaries among the Muslim Brotherhood or the Yemeni Congregation for Reform (al-Islah Party). The province and city of Saada have become a Houthi emirate. The Houthis exercise complete security control and the governor is appointed with their approval.
The second phase included nearby provinces and cities. But Omran remains the most important one because it is the tribal capital and the center of influence and power for the Hashed tribe particularly, which is one of the largest Yemeni tribes that also constitutes the support base for the Muslim Brotherhood in Yemen. It is also an important area for al-Ahmar tribe, the Houthi’s traditional adversaries. Here emerges the name of Sheikh Hamid al-Ahmar in opposition to Abdul Malik al-Houthi.
This phase is not over yet despite declaring total control over the city and province of Omaran, which is adjacent to the capital. The war still rages on in al-Jawf, north of Sanaa as the Houthis are mobilizing in the direction of the capital and announcing their escalation in the face of the central Yemeni government. All eyes are on the capital and there are a lot of talks about sacking it by force under the pretext of economic and social demands.
The third phase is the war outside Saada. It began when the Houthis declared their rejection of the last presidential decision to lift oil subsidies. The decision faced rejection and anger within Yemeni society because of the [financial] burden it places on the average citizen, with the typical consequences of an economic policy imposed by the World Bank which has shown no improvement in the past few years.
At this point, the Houthis and their allies among the small tribes mobilized around Sanaa in response to the appeal by Abdul Malik al-Houthi, who called for a sit-in to express rejection of the presidential decision to lift the subsidies and demanded that there be a change in government in Sanaa.
The response on the part of the presidency came by forming a delegation that went to Saada to meet the Houthi leader. But after three days and while the delegation was still there, Houthi went on TV and talked about escalating and rejecting any compromise. The delegation returned to Sanaa, declaring the failure of the negotiations, blaming the Houthis and accusing them of preparing to conquer Sanaa.
The maneuvers made in the middle were not enough to decide the question in favor of either party. The president continued to accuse Iran of being the main instigator behind the armed group in Saada. He argued that what is happening is a bargain, Syria in return for Yemen. In other words, it is a bargain between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia is not completely absent from the picture. It expressed its fear and concern over the deteriorating domestic situation in Yemen and stressed that Yemen’s security is a Saudi priority as did the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). What became noticeable in the last period is that Yemeni-Saudi relations were not at their best and neither were Yemeni-Qatari relations. This has to do with the support that the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt got from the Muslim Brotherhood in Yemen, in addition to accusing Yemeni President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi that he is mismanaging regional relationships with Yemen’s neighbors but at the same time, he is not maintaining good relations with local players either.
Negotiations did not stop, even though the presidential committee declared its failure to reach an agreement. Hadi continued to send special envoys to Saada, including Capital Secretary Abdul Qader Hilal, who is accepted by the Houthis amidst fear of a disaster.
The Houthis are closing in on Saada and the cities surrounding it such as Omran. They continue to advance towards new areas and cities such as Hija and al-Jawf. At the same time, they are reinforcing their siege of Sanaa. They organize rallies that roam the streets along with an open-ended official sit-in in the middle of the capital.
While the war fronts rage on in al-Jawf and a number of areas between the Houthis and the Yemeni army, the Islamist al-Islah and its allies mobilized militarily because they insist on confronting the Houthis by force. They are pushing for the government to use violence against them and not allow them to lay siege to Sanaa and seize control of it.
The dominant media discourse is one of war. The Houthis are accused of being against the republican system in Yemen, that they want a return to the Imami-monarchy system that existed previously in the country whereby rule is exercised by Hashemite families. It became evident that President Hadi gave instructions to the state-run media to escalate matters. And he personally issued statements in which he accused the Houthis of being backed by Iran which, he said, wants to swap Sanaa for Damascus. He accused the Houthis of taking control of the city of Omran in the north while the army was busy fighting al-Qaeda in the south.
It must be noted that before the Houthi rebellion began, President Hadi visited the city of Omran and met a number of officials there, announcing its return to the control of the Yemeni state. But any visitor can see that the city lies under the total security control of the Houthis and that the president in this case had blessed transferring control of the city from the tribe of al-Ahmar to Ansar Allah (Supporters of God), which is another name by which the Houthis are known.
The volatile situation in Sanaa is likely to explode if attempts to reach a compromise fail. The streets are full of fighters from both sides. Some areas in the capital are under the control of the Houthis and army units have been deployed turning the streets and alleyways of Sanaa into a theater ready for a guerrilla war between houses.
Escalation from both sides is evident and the tensions in Sanaa further complicate matters. One of the main reasons for the failure of the presidential delegation to reach a solution is the way it was treated in Sanaa. Keen to demonstrate his power, Houthi wants to anoint himself, not only in Saada but in Sanaa too, as a national leader.
The Houthis have yet to use force but they did not rule out its use as a last resort. Abdul Malik al-Houthi himself threatened to use force, declaring that the massacres against the youth engaged in a sit-in during the popular revolution in 2011 will not be repeated. He stressed that if his group, engaged in a sit-in in Sanaa, is attacked, they will respond in kind which means more violence.
Houthi is trying to gain supporters from the rest of the parties and political groups. Leftists, who reject the lifting of oil subsidies, presented a vision for a possible solution, but it was not accepted even though everybody knows that failing to reach a compromise will lead to confrontations.
The situation in Yemen is hanging on a thread between the capital where a president with a suit and a military base is getting pressured by Islamists to use force and Saada where a seasoned leader is using the language of threats and intimidation. But it appears that the conflict is, so far, under control. The Houthis have successfully exercised self-control and have not used their weapons. They entered Sanaa through peaceful demonstrations and economic demands and slogans.
This article is an edited translation from the Arabic Edition.
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