Monday, 23 August 2021

Israel’s airstrikes in Syria are not newsworthy for Western media, as a result status quo continues & civilians suffer — In Gaza

August 22, 2021, 

-by Eva K Bartlett

moi

Israel again illegally bombed Syria last week, violating Lebanese airspace to do so and putting at risk the lives of untold numbers of civilians. And following this, crickets in the media, again.

On Thursday, just after 11pm, Israeli missiles targeted the vicinities of Damascus and Homs, according to a statement from the Syrian army. Russia’s Reconciliation Center for Syria said Israel did so via six planes which fired 24 guided missiles at Syria.


In its attack on Syria, Israeli missiles put two passenger airplanes in Syrian and in Lebanese airspace at risk, particularly the 130 civilians and flight crew on a Middle East Airlines flight coming from Abu Dhabi to Beirut. Flight trackers show the plane abruptly changed course to avoid being targeted.

Flashback to 2018, when Israel attacked Syria using the cover of a Russian plane – whose presence was legal in Syria, having been invited by the Syrian government, contrary to the invading Israeli plane. Syrian air defense missiles responded to the threat, downing the Russian plane.

Just last month, Israel attacked Syria on multiple occasions, including during Eid al-Adha, one of the holiest times for Muslims.

The reality is that Israel’s bombings of Syria are so routine that this latest attack is hardly ‘news’ and it is hard to make it newsworthy to write about. I’ve written about such attacks before, including noting (February 2021): “Israel’s military chief of staff boasted earlier about hitting over 500 targets in just 2020 alone.”

But each attack is, in my opinion, newsworthy, because each of them affects, if not kills, civilians.

Surely, it would be newsworthy if the routine bombings of a neighboring sovereign country were committed by, say, Russia or China. The entirety of Western media and all of the internet would be livid and demanding accountability.

Israel’s pretext when bombing Syria is usually that it is, “targeting Iranian-backed fighters,” a charge gleefully reprinted in media and by sources supporting the fall of the Syrian government.

The psychological terror

British journalist Vanessa Beeley, who lives in a heavily populated suburb on the outskirts of Damascus, tweeted of feeling the impacts of the bombings.

Now imagine all of the people in the vicinity feeling that impact, not knowing if that night they would finally be struck. That’s the thing we don’t hear much of if these attacks even make any media coverage: how they impact on civilians, even those not directly injured but terrorized by them.

I know very well of the terror of being near a site Israel has just bombed. And although I have many anecdotes from my three years of living in Gaza, one rather poignant incident involved me sleeplessly musing on the rooftop of the simple central Gazan home I lived in on a hot August 2011 night. I wrote:

“I am watching sporadic shooting stars when the first F-16 appeared from the direction of the sea. Three more follow. The roar is normal, F-16s are normal, and reading in the news the next day that some part of Gaza was bombed is normal. They continue eastward and a bombing seems imminent. It is. A thick cloud of black smoke blots the dim lights of houses in eastern Deir al Balah where the F-16s have struck.”

I went on to write about the planes attacking the city of Khan Younis to the south, and suddenly, bombing close to me.

“Two massive blasts, the house shakes. They’ve bombed somewhere near the sea, which is only a few hundred meters away. Concrete dust flutters down upon us. There is a sustained honking in Gaza that everyone recognizes as make way, we’ve got another victim here.”

And, if I may dwell on this one simple anecdote, I remarked on how the men in the house tried to appear calm and cool but, while we were all accustomed to such random bombings and either put on a brave face or genuinely stop flinching, they do still affect you deeply.

“Every time one of those f***ing F-16s flies over us, it’s a reminder of the last war, or of previous attacks, or of random bombings, or of friends and family martyred in their sleep, cars, homes… Every time those F-16s intentionally break the sound barrier to create a bomb-like sonic boom, everyone within range instinctively remembers their own personal horror at whichever Israeli war or attacks.”

I have more terrifying, all night long bombing memories, with massive bombs landing nearby, including just tens of meters away. Those were during the 2008/9 war on Gaza. With the above account, I want to emphasize how these terrors occur on any random day, but will never be heard of in the media.

But it isn’t just the already bad enough bombings. The psychological terror aspect includes the near-continuous presence of drones overhead.

After Israel’s latest bombing of Syria, I spoke with Lebanese journalist Marwa Osman. She emphasized how Israel’s violation of Lebanese airspace is an almost daily occurrence.

“All day, you can hear them [Israeli drones]. It causes a nervous breakdown for any human to keep listening to this all day. I can’t even imagine what they feel in Gaza when they have them all the time overhead.”

If you haven’t ever been under one, much less tens, of military drones, you won’t know how deeply disturbing hearing them is. It is hard to concentrate with such an ominous cacophony constantly overhead.

When in early August, in what the Israel army claimed was a “retaliation” attack, Israel fired artillery shells at the Khiam region of southern Lebanon, Osman was at her home less than one kilometer from the bombings. She spoke of the terror of her children. “I found one of them hiding under the sink, I found two of them hiding in my bedroom near the closet because they thought this was the safest place to be.”

Limited condemnations, but continued status quo?

Lebanon’s minister of defense condemned Israel’s recent attack and has, “called on the UN to deter Israel from carrying out airstrikes on Syria using Lebanese airspace.” Russia and Iran have on more than one occasion condemned the attacks, rightly noting they violate international law and Syria’s sovereignty. And of course the Syrian government condemns such attacks every time they occur.

But in spite of this, the condemnations get limited notice and the status quo continues. In a day or two, or a week or month, there will be another such Israeli attack that will, again, be deemed not newsworthy.

RELATED LINKS:

–Israel violates international law anew, again bombing Syria…to further indifference of Western media

–stars and bombs: random israeli bombing a few hundred metres from home

–dangerous nights in Jabaliya and throughout Gaza

–wreckage trail from Jabaliya to Gaza



River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

النفط الإيراني… شريان للحياة

 السبت 21 آب 2021

حسن عليق


النفط الإيراني... شريان للحياة
(مروان بو حيدر)

«بكرا بيتعوّدوا»، العبارة المنسوبة إلى رياض سلامة تعليقاً على تعامل اللبنانيين مع انهيار قيمة الليرة، باتت دستور أكثرية قوى السلطة. منذ سنتين، عاش لبنان ثلاث صدمات اقتصادية كبرى، يجري التعامل معها كما لو أنها لم تكن: صدمة إفلاس القطاع المصرفي المكابر على إعلان إفلاسه وانهيار الليرة، وصدمة رفع الدعم، وصدمة انقطاع الطاقة الكهربائية والمحروقات معاً.

كل واحدة من هذه الصدمات كفيلة، وحدها، بهدم اقتصاد ولو كان قوياً، وبتدمير قدرات السكان المعيشية. الانهيار لا يُمكن أن يستمر، ولو في أفشل دول العالم، من دون خطة إنقاذ، لوقف الانهيار وعكس المسار نحو العودة إلى «الحياة الطبيعية». رفع الدعم لا يمكن أن يتم، ولو في أكثر الرأسماليات توحشاً، من دون شبكة أمان اجتماعي. حتى البنك وصندوق النقد الدوليّان، وسواهما من مؤسسات نظام سيادة رأس المال في العالم، يوصيان بأن يكون قرار إلغاء الدعم عن السلع الأساسية متزامناً مع برامج حماية اجتماعية، للطبقات الأكثر ضعفاً. وأكثر ما ينبغي الامتناع عنه، هو رفع الدعم فجأة عن الغذاء والدواء والاستشفاء والمحروقات والطاقة. صدمات متتالية أصابت سكان لبنان، مترافقة مع جائحة كورونا العالمية، وانفجار المرفأ، وأزمة سياسية مستمرة منذ ما قبل انسحاب الجيش السوري أنتجت عدم انتظام في المؤسسات الدستورية (فراغ حكومي، فراغ رئاسي وتمديد نيابي…) استهلك أكثر من نصف الأعوام الـ 16 الماضية.

صدمات متتالية، أتت بعد إجراءات حصارية نفّذتها الولايات المتحدة الأميركية، بدأت عام 2011 بقرار إعدام البنك اللبناني الكندي (وهو العام الذي بدأ فيه ميزان المدفوعات اللبناني يشهد عجزاً استمر حتى اليوم)، ثم إجراءات حصار سوريا تزامناً مع اندلاع الحرب فيها، وقرارات العقوبات بحق شركات وأفراد لبنانيين، وصولاً إلى إعدام بنك الجمال صيف عام 2019 (صاعق الانهيار) وإقفال المصارف بعد 17 تشرين الأول 2019 (قرار اتخذته جمعية المصارف أثناء وجودها مع سلامة في واشنطن). طوال تلك الفترة، كانت البنوك تكنز الودائع في مصرف لبنان الذي اتخذ حاكمه كل الإجراءات الممكنة من أجل خنق الاقتصاد، وتوّجها، بغطاء من أكثرية سياسية عابرة للانقسام التقليدي، بقرار رفع الدعم عن المحروقات. وسبق ذلك القرار قانونٌ أصدره مجلس النواب في نيسان 2021 منح فيه سلفة خزينة لمؤسسة كهرباء لبنان بقيمة 300 مليار ليرة. هذا القانون يمكن تسميته بقانون العتمة. فالمؤسسة كانت تطلب 1500 مليار ليرة لتأمين ثمن الوقود الكافي لتوليد الطاقة الكهربائية وصيانة معامل الإنتاج حتى نهاية العام الجاري. لكنّ عدداً من الكتل النيابية (القوات اللبنانية والحزب التقدمي الاشتراكي وتيار المستقبل وحركة أمل) ضغطت لخفض قيمة السلفة حتى 300 مليار ليرة، تحت طائلة عدم إصدار القانون. وشنّ ممثلون عن هذه الكتل عملية تضليل شنيعة للسكان، متعمّدين الكذب عبر القول إن خفض قيمة السلفة هدفه الحفاظ على أموال المودعين التي لم تحرّك هذه الكتل ساكناً لحمايتها، لا قبل الانهيار استباقاً، ولا بعده حفاظاً على ما تبقى منها. ببساطة، صدر قانون العتمة، عبر حجب الأموال عن مؤسسة كهرباء لبنان. ثم غطّت هذه الكتل، وغيرها، قرار سلامة رفع الدعم عن المحروقات. هذه الكتل تنقسم إلى قسمين. القوات والاشتراكي والمستقبل فعلوا ما فعلوه امتثالاً لأوامر أميركية بإيصال البلاد إلى الدرَك الأسفل من الانهيار. أما كتلة حركة أمل، ففعلته نكاية بالتيار الوطني الحر. وفي خلفية قانون العتمة وقرار رفع الدعم، انحياز كلي لأصحاب الثروات والمصارف.

ما جرى كان تأثيره كارثياً. لم يسبق أن اتخذت دولة، عن وعي كامل، قراراً بتدمير اقتصادها بالصورة التي فعلتها السلطة اللبنانية. ما يشهده لبنان حالياً من انقطاع للطاقة الكهربائية والمحروقات لا يمكن أن تشهده أي دولة من دون حرب مدمّرة. فالطاقة هي العمود الفقري للحياة في القرن الحادي والعشرين بعد الميلاد. ونتائج وقف إنتاج الكهرباء وقطع المحروقات لا تعيد سكان لبنان إلى المستوى الذي كانوا يعيشون فيه بعد الحرب الأهلية مباشرة، بل تُرجعهم إلى زمن ما قبل إنشاء سكة الحديد وإقامة أول معامل إنتاج الكهرباء زمن السلطة العثمانية. والدولة التي فُرِض عليها هذا الواقع، بقرار خارجي وداخلي، هي دولة يقول حاكم مصرفها المركزي إن بين يديه 14 مليار دولار «نقداً»، و17 مليار دولار ذهباً.

مجلس النواب، بوصفه المؤسسة الدستورية الأمّ، كان ينبغي أن يكون الحصن الأخير دفاعاً عن حقوق أبناء «الأمة» ومصالحهم. كان يُنتظر منه إصدار قوانين تُجبر مصرف لبنان على استمرار الدعم إلى حين إقامة شبكة أمان اجتماعي، وعلى ضمان استمرار إنتاج الكهرباء بالطاقة القصوى، وعلى تمويل إقامة معامل إنتاج جديدة تكفي لتغطية كامل حاجة البلاد. كان يُنتظر منه أن يكون على قدر المسؤولية، لإخراج البلاد من صدمة الانهيار.

جلسة مجلس النواب، أمس، يمكن اعتبارها خاتمة الاستقالة من بذل أيّ جُهد إنقاذي. هذا الواقع الداخلي، متشابكاً مع الحصار الخارجي، لا يواجَه بقرارات تقليدية. البلاد تعيش حالة انهيار تام يُعبَّر عنها بانقطاع التيار الكهربائي، وفقدان المحروقات. موازين القوى في المؤسسات الدستورية موزعة بين شريك لدول الحصار (سياسياً ومالياً)، ومستقيل من مسؤوليته وعاجز عن التغيير من الداخل

ومشتغل بالنكاية. والواقع أشبه ما يكون بحالة حرب غير معلنة. وإزاءه، لا بد من حلول غير تقليدية، على رأسها تأمين مصادر الطاقة، في وجه الاحتكار والحصار، والتفافاً على العجز التام للمؤسسات. إجراءات طوارئ هدفها إنعاش المريض والحؤول دون وفاته. هنا تحديداً تكمن أهمية استيراد النفط من إيران. إنه ليس حلاً للأزمة في لبنان، لكنه بالتأكيد شريانٌ للحياة، في وجه قوى الموت الداخلية والخارجية.


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River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

Nasrallah: Afghanistan is worst debacle in US history, Biden hopes for civil war

Date: 22 August 2021

RESISTANCE NEWS

Nasrallah: Afghanistan is worst debacle in US history, Biden hopes for civil war


Speech by Hezbollah Secretary General, Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, on August 17, 2021, on the occasion of the commemoration of the 9th night of Ashura, two days before the martyrdom of Imam Hussein.

Source: video.moqawama.org

Translation: resistancenews.org

Transcript:

[…] My last point is Afghanistan, which I quickly mentioned before. What is happening in Afghanistan right now is an emergency situation that is grabbing the attention of the whole world. Inside the United States, this is the main event all are talking about, and of course everyone blames each other, just like in Lebanon, people are all the same: the Republican Party blames the Democrat Party, blames Biden, and describes the scene as a humiliation for the United States, (a proof of) weakness, helplessness, failure, historic defeat, shame, disgrace, etc. If we want to faithfully describe (the political situation in the United States), we can say that they are tearing each other apart. The same goes for the position of European countries, of the leaders of certain European countries [United Kingdom, France, Germany…], who speak with very strong and very negative words to assess the situation in Afghanistan.

It is indeed a striking and vitally important spectacle, filled with lessons to be learned, and we all must… It is not something that one or two speeches is enough to describe, for the situation continues to develop, and deserves everyone to watch it carefully and think about it seriously, very seriously. This should not simply be of interest to (pseudo-)experts (in) strategic (issues), who are very numerous today, ma sha Allah, experts, analysts, no: all men and women (must feel) that what is currently happening in Afghanistan (is their concern), and all that has been said so far remains little in the face of the importance and consequences of what is happening in Afghanistan, at the historical, strategic, ideological, cultural, political, psychological and moral levels. And those who must be the most assiduous in the reading (and the interpretation) of this (considerable) event to draw the strategic and historical consequences from it are the peoples of this region. Yes, the people of the Middle East must be the first to care about what is happening. Because what is happening in Afghanistan is a very big and even masterful lesson.

The images that you see and have all seen on TV screens speak for themselves… and all the media around the world (follow and broadcast what is happening), because however strong the censorship system of the United States may be, (it is powerless to prevent the mass distribution of these images). On the subject of social networks and the Internet, which the United States has opened up and spread around the world to instrumentalize them in color revolutions here and there, they find themselves caught in their own trap, because even inside the United States, the Biden government can certainly influence such newspapers or such television channels (to dissuade them from broadcasting these humiliating images), but how could it prevent millions and tens of millions of users of social networks to share these images? And glory to God, these are exactly the same images as in Vietnam! Just like in Saigon! The (American nationals) climbed stairs to access a helicopter on a roof (and escape), and we see exactly the same thing happening at Kabul airport! It’s extraordinary ! A real photocopy! Can we believe that this is just a coincidence?

Either way, the images of Afghanistan and the fall of Afghanistan into the hands of the very movement that the United States fought for 20 years and expelled (from power), before handing the country over to them on a silver platter… The Taliban flag flies over Kabul airport. I have already mentioned Afghanistan in my previous speech [cf. below], and today Biden took the floor to try to defend himself… I said before that instead of rushing to achieve the withdrawal of his troops, as long as the American forces were present, and since the Afghan forces (formed by the USA) have 300,000 to 400,000 members —between soldiers and police forces— he should have cut a deal between the Afghan government and the Taliban, in favor of the formation of a transitional government, which would have avoided everything that happened, allowing the United States to withdraw with dignity. Why didn’t he do this? Because he couldn’t bear to stay any longer (in Afghanistan). Honestly! It was not out of respect that Biden did not do this. And don’t take my word for it, listen to what Biden himself said! Listen to Biden, listen to his Secretary of State and his National Security Advisor… Because now they are forced to explain themselves to the American people… They do not explain themselves to the peoples of the world, but to the American people who is amazed at these humiliating images of defeat and failure. Listen to his explanations, and you will understand the American point of view. I’m not going to make you a (full) TV report, but I hope everyone will listen carefully to what Biden said yesterday, what he said today, and what American (authorities) will say in the days to come. Give seriously some time to their statements, as this will give a good understanding of the historical and strategic consequences of the (humiliating) defeat and (monumental) failure of the United States and NATO in Afghanistan. It is a matter of concern to us as peoples of the region, and gives us lessons that we can use for our present and our future.

I’m going to stop on two points (of Biden’s speech). In his speech today, he said “We have spent over a trillion dollars“, that is over a thousand billion dollars! They spent a trillion dollars in Afghanistan! And they left crestfallen, empty-handed, with Honaïn’s shoes as the Arabic saying goes, humiliated, defeated, ashamed, in disgrace. And this according to the admission of their own media, and Western media. What does this prove? That they have failed (miserably), that they have been routed, that they are helpless, ignorant and stupid. Biden himself said that the US did not foresee that the Afghan government and forces would collapse so quickly, and was surprised that they neither fought nor resisted. The Secretary of State and the National Security Advisor said the same thing. What does this indicate? People imagine the United States to be a demigod, omniscient, analyzing and mastering everything at their fingertips, knowledgeable about everything, able to plan everything through its state-of-the-art study and planning centers with top notch skill and technology, with huge & masterful plans, etc. But the reality is far from all that! In our region, the United States is ignorant, unable to understand anything! For decades, they have been repeating the same mistakes, deploying the same (failed) experiments and the same (wrong) calculations! This is one of the lessons to be learned!

Biden says it is not the fault of the United States, but the fault of the Afghan forces who did not fight. But my dear, these Afghan forces, you left them without air force, because the air force is in your hands, (and you did not allow them to develop it), while claiming that you spent a trillion dollars. This is the first point. Second, these Afghan forces were led by your generals, who prepared doomed (war) plans for them! What (war) plans did you concoct, what (military) advice did you provide to these Afghan forces? Third, what did Biden want (ultimately)? What does his confession reveal? Because he did not know how to hold his tongue, too entangled in his (clumsy) defense (and he unmasked himself). He wanted a civil war! He wanted the Afghan forces to wage war on the Taliban, a war between hundreds of thousands (of fighters) against hundreds of thousands (of fighters), and he would just have to sit down and enjoy the bloody spectacle in Afghanistan.

Whereas if he had humanity, and cared (for the well-being) of people as he claims, he would have presided over an agreement and a settlement of the conflict before withdrawing from Afghanistan. (This contempt for the lives of Afghans) is an ethical and moral downfall of the American administration! This moral degradation is emphasized even by leading politicians and commentators in the United States and elsewhere. This is why Biden says today that he wanted a political solution (between the Afghan government and the Taliban), but that Ashraf Ghani, the Afghan President, did not want it. You see? Biden pins the blame on him, and claims to be faultless!

These words reminded me of those verses of the Qur’an which speak about the devil: « [And Satan will say when the matter is decided: “It was God Who gave you a promise of truth: I too promised but I failed in my promise to you. I had no authority over you except to call you but ye listened to me.] Then reproach not me but reproach your own souls.” » [Quran, 14, 22] (The damned) are invited not to impute to the devil (their bad actions which will lead them to Hell), but to only blame themselves!

It was you (pro-US Afghans) who put yourselves at the service of the Americans, who listened to them and obeyed them, who placed your hopes in them and bet on them, but they got to the point where they told you (quite simply) fare well,  « Bye-bye » [Nasrallah says it in English]. And what kind of « Bye-bye » are we talking about? What is happening at Kabul airport is incredible, it is heartbreaking and sad. Because in the end (these Afghans who want to flee) are human beings. We have all seen this (American military) plane advance with dozens of people around it, without worrying about them, without the pilot stopping, while he could have run over them!

And he saw that people had clung to the plane, but took off anyway! Whether they fall and crash (horribly to the ground) or not, that’s not his problem!

This is the United States! What I’m telling you is all over the media, I’m not inventing anything! They embarked police dogs, but did not embark the Afghans who collaborated with them!

They embarked equipment which costs only money, but did not embark human beings, who are human beings, men, with human rights! Such is the United States, (this is their true face)!

Image

Everything that is happening in Afghanistan, even if in Lebanon we are absorbed by our daily problems, I hope that we will pay attention to it and will consider it as the pivotal moment that it is, because for 50 or 60 years, there was nothing like it. And this will have a great impact on international policies, international relations, international alliances. And today, those who observe and comment on these events most attentively are the Israelis!

Because when Biden said, and this is a message to all of America’s allies in the region (including Israel), when Biden was defending himself, he said something very, very, very, very, very, very, very… (repeat it until you lose your breath) important, and I hope America’s “friends” in Lebanon and the region will read this very carefully. Biden said “American troops cannot and should not be fighting in a war and dying in a war in the place of anyone else.“ If anyone expects the Americans to come and fight for them, this is what Biden says! And in order not to fight for anyone else, he is ready to endure a historic and humiliating defeat in Afghanistan! When we talk about Lebanon or whatever, in comparison, it is only an (insignificant) detail (in the eyes of the Americans).

In conclusion, in what is happening in Afghanistan, are very big and very important lessons, and we must take advantage of them and act accordingly, at the cultural, ideological & emotional levels, at the level of our choices, of our hopes, of our our reading (of events), of our alliances, of our infrastructure, at the economic, political, military, security levels, etc. This was my conclusion during my last speech, when I said that we must only rely on God and on ourselves! We must not wait for the United States, nor their training, nor their advice, nor their support, nor their false promises, nor their plots! We do not want their good nor their evil. Of course no good can come from them. The good resides in our people, in our (Arab-Muslim) Community, in our region, in the Arab-Muslim peoples. It is on them that we must rely. Because we have all these possibilities and capacities.

I am done on this subject. I will meet you tomorrow, for the 10th night (of the month of Muharram, the eve of the martyrdom of Imam Hussein), the night of the last meeting, and of the big fare well.

Peace be upon you, O my master Aba ‘Abdillah al-Hussein, and on the souls who dwell in your court! On you, from me, the Peace of God, forever, as long as I exist and as long as night and day last! May God not make this the last time I am visiting you! Peace be upon Hussein, upon ‘Ali son of Hussein, upon the children of Hussein and upon the companions of Hussein!

Peace be upon you, as well as the Mercy of God and His blessings.


River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

Is Afghanistan the First Domino to Fall?

War and Conflict — Strategic Culture

August 22, 2021

Tim Kirby

It certainly looks like a domino that has been put in position poised to fall waiting for others to take their places in the line.

With America withdrawing from Afghanistan abruptly after some 20 years, one big question is being discussed throughout the strategic sphere by those both in big institutions and laying on their couches – is the American loss in Afghanistan the first domino to fall in the eventual collapse of the Global Hegemon? After all, Afghanistan is the “graveyard of empires” probably because it is an expression that sounds nice and because the Soviets fell apart a few years after losing to the locals. So this must be the “beginning of the end” right?

Well, we should never be so quick as to jump onto narrow narratives without looking at the big picture. Side-by-side images of the Americans and their allies fleeing Vietnam and Afghanistan by helicopter are flooding Facebook, posted by those in the Alternative Media who take great joy in any loss by the 21st century’s “Evil Empire” but they seem to forget that just a few decades after losing in Vietnam the United States won the Cold War and took dominance over the planet.

Image: Strategic meme-of-the-year material for 2021.

No single event no matter how photogenic it is, is not going to be a sign of the grand demise of the “Sole Hyperpower”. It really took from the beginning of WWI till the end of WWII for the British to truly fall apart as a geopolitical force. The Soviet Union fell much quicker, but it is very widely believed that Perestroika (or the The Reykjavik Summit) was the real first white flag that devolved into the breakup of the union years later. The Roman Empire was a vastly slower burn than either of these two modern behemoths.

This means we should not be debating if Afghanistan is the first “domino” to fall, but instead we should really take a look at what the rest of the dominos falling would look like. At this point we can surely put together a rough picture of what the next tiles to fall would look like, i.e. what other major failures/events would really be signs of the Monopolar World meeting its demise? The following are a few humble offerings as to what these dominos could be…

Abandoning the Maidan Regime in the Ukraine

The unexpected surrender and soon to be total fall of Kabul has certainly resonated in another city that starts with the letter K. If Washington is finding it necessary to abandon a twenty-year Nation-Building project that they have invested vast sums of money and manpower into, that means that back-burner Kiev could be cut loose in the near future, putting the fate of the region in the hands of the Russians.

Image: We all know who secures Ukrainian “independence”.

The Maidan has been a major roadblock for Russia. As Brzeziński wrote, “It cannot be stressed enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire” and Washington has done an absolutely fantastic job of turning the region into an “anti-Russia” as Putin recently called it.

If the Maidan project were to be abandoned, it would become another quite massive domino. Washington giving up on Kiev, resulting in that current political entity probably being divided up, mostly going to Moscow, would symbolize either the USA’s inability to stop the rise of the Russians or their begrudging acceptance of it.

Taiwan, Hong Kong and/or South Korea

The Trump-era State Department Democracy storm that was inflicted on Hong Kong has seemed to fade away, but a total abandonment of the thorns in the side of the Chinese Dragon would also result in another domino being placed into position.

Image: Not State Department = No Professional Protest Organizers in China.

Bailing on Hong Kong activists or failing to maintain Taiwan’s independence would certainly present a strong sign of weakness and inability from the standpoint of Washington. Furthermore, although China has never had a passionate love for the North Koreans, having South Korea as essentially an American beachhead right next door has been a cause of concern for decades for Beijing. The South Korean economy on paper looks amazing and their cities dazzle with progress but what would be the effects of Ameria giving up on them? Is South Korea able to stand as a great nation, or is it really only successful thanks to the American umbrella? The answer to that would reveal itself within two weeks of an America-free Korean Peninsula.

Simply put, if Washington gives up on Hong Kong, Taiwan and/or South Korea it is another sign of the end for sure as China would be more or less rid of these weak points that have been exploited against it for decades.

A Loss of Control Over the “Bigs”

Big Tech, Big Pharma, Big Agro and so on, have dutifully served Washington’s interests despite their theoretically international nature. But we should never forget that large for-profit entities are quite “whoreish” and will serve whichever master they need to. If Washington cannot control the Bigs as it used to, this would be another domino.

To a small extent this is happening in Hollywood where the Chinese market’s (and its official and unofficial) demands are having a major impact. But if it comes to a point that Hollywood is only making a chunk of the world’s blockbusters rather than nearly all of them it would be the end of the total unobstructed Soft Power dominance of this American institution. Or even worse, if Hollywood can be bought out from under America then a new global narrative could be spun quite quickly.

If the Hegemon fades, the leadership of the Bigs will feel increasing pressure from the Russians, Chinese and Arabs to give up the whole “gay thing” and portray these societies in a positive light whether through bribery or threats of force. Apple may be “designed in California” but if need be they would surely bail for greener pastures rather than living a life of poverty loyal to a failed America.

Mexico, Lakotastan and African-America

The United States has done a fantastic job of fostering independence movements within its rivals while making diverse masses “American” at home. However, as with the Soviets and the British, waves of breakaway republics and successful secessionist movements would be a very big domino indeed.

The Soviets tried to create an African workers uprising in America in the 60’s and failed miserably, but BLM could get out of control, or in the case of a dying USA, could become used by foreign powers. An Afro-American Maidan would certainly be another sign of doom.

The rise of an independent Native-American state like the Lakota Indians’ lands would be yet another tile being stood into place, opening the door for further break-away attempts.

When the Mexicans lost the Mexican-American war they lost the chance to become the dominant power on the continent. Few remember, but the destiny of this New World was not just given to the Americans wrapped in a box. If the Mexicans had won the war they would be the ones with access to the Atlantic (via the Gulf of Mexico) and the Pacific simultaneously, not Washington. It would have been very possible for them to secure the entire West Coast. A Mexico that would begin to take action as an independent actor would certainly be another sign of serious trouble for Washington. Thus far, on the North American continent “there can be only one” but perhaps that isn’t necessarily going to always remain the same “one”.

The death of the Dollar or collapse of the Federal Reserve

If the dollar were to collapse, or there were serious problems at the Federal Reserve, as have been predicted for many years due to insane national debt, this would of course be the biggest domino of all. The West has been able to accumulate bafflingly massive debt with no consequences because of the dominance of Washington. It is very hard to call in a debt from the toughest kid school surrounded by his henchmen. But when the big bully stops growing, and loses his buddies, all of a sudden getting your $5 back with a few whacks from a baseball bat becomes viable.

Image: If you are powerful enough no one can call in your debts.

No one can call in the debt of a Global Hegemon, but Regional Powers have to balance their checkbook. A decrease in power could lead to the national debt prophecy coming true in our lifetimes which would be probably the largest domino of all.

In conclusion

Is Afghanistan “the first domino to fall” in the death of the American Empire? This cannot be proven, but it certainly looks like a domino that has been put in position poised to fall waiting for others to take their places in the line. Other major defeats would be required to say for sure that this “New American Century” is over, not even making it to the one-fourth mark. It is really the other potential signs of the end that are of most concern not squabbling over Afghanistan’s domino status. So the big question is, if Washington is losing its Monopolar World Order, then where will be the next grand retreats?


River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

‘With Iran fuel, Lebanon breaks US siege & turns East’: Economist

 August 22, 2021

‘With Iran fuel, Lebanon breaks US siege & turns East’: Economist

Original link: http://middleeastobserver.net/iran-fuel-to-rescue-lebanon-from-us-economic-invasion-economist/

Description:

Lebanese economist Ziad Nasreddine comments on the potential ramifications of Hezbollah’s ongoing efforts to ship Iranian fuel to Lebanon, an effort announced by Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah a day earlier.

Source: Al-Manar TV via Kalam Siyasi (YouTube)  Date: August 20, 2021

(Please help MEO keep producing independent translations for you by contributing a sustainable monthly amount https://www.patreon.com/MiddleEastObserver?fan_landing=true)

Transcript:

Host:

Mr. Ziad, some say: what could (the ships) change, how could a ship or two coming from Iran constitute a solution for the stifling crisis we are experiencing, and the approach of (opening up to) the East must be done in a different way, and as long as it is not an exchange between a state and another (i.e. not from the side of Hezbollah as a party), the economic value of this action will be intangible, the Lebanese people who are experiencing the most severe siege won’t feel (any difference).

Ziad Nasreddine, Lebanese Economist:

Firstly, as for the issue of Iran, when we talk about the Islamic Republic of Iran, we are talking about a country that owns 10% of the world’s oil reserves, and 15% of the world’s gas reserves, and so it has a substantial surplus. Today (Iran) is providing power and electricity to Armenia, and a certain amount to Afghanistan, and a certain amount to Iraq and Pakistan as well. Therefore, there are many countries whose economies are tied to Iran and can deal with it.

Now when we talk about the internal affairs of Lebanon, today we can actually say that we have took a first step towards the East, and this first step is a fruitful step; it is not a matter of a ship or two, it is a matter of a strategic decision (concerning) the economic (affairs of Lebanon). Today, there is a real conflict between the East and West. The main question is ‘who needs the other, the East or the West?’. Today, the East has promising economies and great capabilities, and all the states surrounding (this geopolitical region) are allowed to deal with it and make strategic agreements, except for Lebanon.

The question today is, about a month ago, Saudi Arabia headed towards the East, specifically to China, and signed strategic agreements that might reach $90 billion, the UAE signed strategic deals with China, Jordan is also about to make agreements, and even the Israeli enemy is (doing so), yet (we are made to believe that) restrictions only (apply) to Lebanon?! Therefore, the fundamental and highly important depth of any economic rescue (project) for Lebanon must start, and will start, from Syria, and reach the depth of Asia and Iran.

Iran today plays a central role, today there are 14 states who have requested to get fuel and gas from Iran, so, we have entered a new phase. The fear (of US allies in Lebanon) today is not because of the diesel oil and gasoline coming to Lebanon, the fear is tied to this first step which forms a starting point for (the implementation of) major reforms related to the issue of electricity. The way it was accepted today – and it will be accepted by the Lebanese public, they will accept that we need diesel and gasoline, and this state (i.e. Iran) provided us (with those needs).

Tomorrow, we might return to (pre-existing) Iranian offers for the building of (power) plants in Lebanon as well, plants powered by gas. Let us talk in numbers: today we have, since the November (2019) crisis till the present day, spent $15 billion, between covering (government) subsidies and (taking into account) money that came in (to Lebanon) and money (that was) smuggled (abroad). This is while we actually only need $1 billion to build (power) plants and get rid of the entire (country’s) electricity (shortage) crisis! We spend $15 billion for (government) subsidies and to smuggle money abroad and many other things, yet we do not spend $1 billion to end (Lebanon’s) electricity problem!

We pay $3.5 billion yearly because we do not have electricity run on gas, nor have we built electricity plants for producing power. Today, this is the main problem, through which they (i.e. the US) were able (to harm Lebanon) via the electricity problem, (as) we had tied diesel oil to all our production sectors and (enabled a) a siege (to be imposed) on Lebanon. Lebanon was exposed to…what happened today (i.e. Nasrallah’s announcement) is that (a step was taken) to confront the economic siege, Lebanon was being exposed to an economic invasion just through (the exploitation) of diesel and gasoline. Therefore, all the sectors, during the months of September and October (2021)…there were plans in place to collapse Lebanon’s phone and internet (networks), (and plans were in place) to prevent the new academic year from starting (on time)…

All of this is because everything is tied to diesel oil (for everyday operation), hospitals are tied to diesel oil, bakeries are tied to diesel oil, schools, telecommunications, internet, and all these things today (depend on diesel oil). This crisis was expected to continue until we fall into a greater crisis after September and October. What is happening today is that we are carrying out an actual rescue of the (Lebanese) economy, we are saying that we want to put an economic plan on the table and consider it seriously, and that we (as a country) must not be a part of the projects of others anymore.


River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

Sunday, 22 August 2021

المهمة المستحيلة (2) أفغانستان


الأحد 22 آب 2021

 سعادة مصطفى أرشيد*

لا تزال المهمة الأفغانية المستحيلة تراوح في دائرة انعدام اليقين، حول مصير البلد الذي مثلت ثقافة الحرب والصراع مكوّنه النفسي ـ السياسي الأول من فجر تاريخه، ولا يزال من غير المعروف إذا كانت التحوّلات الأفغانية سوف تذهب باتجاه حداثي، أيّ أن تصبح إعادة بناء البلد على غرار الدولة العصرية الحديثة أم باتجاه أفغاني خاص مع الحفاظ على البلد وأمنه وشعبه وثرواته واعتبارها أولوية، أم باتجاه ارتباطات مع هذا المحور أو ذاك، دولياً وإقليمياً؟

من المؤكد أنّ السياسة الصينية تؤمن بالمثل القائل: السعيد من اتعظ بغيره، والشقي من اتعظ بنفسه، إذ أن الصين لن تجرّب حظها وتذهب بطريق إنجلترا وشركة الهند الشرقية في أربعينات القرن التاسع عشر، ولن تكرّر الخطأ السوفياتي عام 1979، ولن تتورّط كما تورّطت الولايات المتحدة عام 2002، وإنما ستعتمد على قوتها الناعمة، وعلى قدراتها التفاوضية في كسب أرباح الحرب التي لم ولن تخوضها، في الحصول على مواد أفغانستان الخام ـ الثمينة والقريبة مكانياً، وبأسعار تفضيلية، وسوف تجعل من بضائعها عماد السوق الأفغاني، المتعطش للبضائع والفقير مالياً والذي سيجد في بضائع الصين زهيدة الثمن ومستحيلة المنافسة، ما يشبع جوعه الاستهلاكي، لذلك لن تجد حاجة للتورّط في حروب هذا البلد فهي ستكون داخله دون مغامرات غيرها وحروبهم، الذي لا يزال لديه ما يكفيه من حروب مرشحة للاشتعال بين مكوّناته الداخلية.

حركة طالبان قاتلت طويلاً بالنار والدم، لكنها في النهاية انتصرت في هذه الحرب العالمية الطويلة دون قتال، ولم تضطر إلى استعمال النار والبارود في معركتها الأخيرة الحاسمة، إذ اكتفت بسلاح بالغ الخفة، ألا وهو الهاتف النقال، الذي كان كافياً لجعل الرئيس أشرف غني (آخر طبعة أميركية) يسارع إلى حمل كلّ ثمين خفيف، ويغادر البلاد دون إعلام من حوله من مستشارين ووزراء وقادة، وليلحق به هؤلاء، أو من تمكن. فيما تركوا جماعتهم من الصغار الذين أصبحوا من لزوم ما لا يلزم، وصاروا يتعلقون ويسحقون تحت عجلات الطائرات المغادرة، فيما يتولى الثائرون والغاضبون والرعاع التعامل بقسوة مع من بقي منهم. حركة طالبان، التي انطلقت من مدارس بيشاور الأفغانية، كحركة شباب يملؤهم الحماس ويشعلهم الإيمان قبل عقود، قد اختلفت اليوم بحكم الزمن وتراكم التجربة والنضج، أدخل بعض من قادتها ومنظروها إلى مدارس الحياة الجميلة والعصرية لسنوات في العاصمة القطرية ـ الدوحة، وعرفوا جنة الدنيا في فنادقها ومطاعمها ونواديها الرياضية (spa)، وخاضوا في نقاشات فكرية غنية وممتعة ولا بدّ، مع مفكرين وإعلاميين وأكاديميين من توجهات ومدارس مختلفة، وأدخل بعض آخر من قادتها ومناضليها قسراً إلى مدارس معتمة، بالغة القسوة، في غوانتانامو، فتعرّفوا على الصورة المناقضة تماماً، وعاينوا بين تلك الجدران والقضبان من عذابات الجحيم الأرضي، فيما بقي آخرون في الجبال والصحارى، وأصبح يفصل بينهم وبين رفقائهم على الأرض لا المسافة والجغرافية فحسب، وإنما خندق عميق من اختلاف التجربة، ففي حين عرف بعض منهم جنة الدنيا وذاقوا بعض فاكهتها في قطر، وعرف قسم آخر جحيم الدنيا وزقومها وسعيرها في غوانتانامو، لم ينل رفقاؤهم على الأرض مثل ذلك الحظ، ولا تلك القسوة، من أولئك الذين يعيشون في جليد الجبال وكهوفها، وقيظ الصحارى وشمسها، ويقتاتون من خبز الشعير ويتلقون السلاح وبعض القوت من إيران، إذ انه حصتهم ستكون في جنة الآخرة التي تدوم ولا تزول.

قد يكون جذر التفكير مشتركاً، ولكن ظروف الزمان والمكان لها دور في افتراق مذاهب العمل والتطبيق، فهذه الحركة الطلابية (طالبان)، قد فعلت بها التجارب أفاعيلها وأخذت مكانها في عقول قادتها، ومن هذه النقطة سوف تفترق طرائق العمل بين طالبان وطالبان، فقد أصبح لكلّ منهم جدليته، بعضهم سيعتمد على بناء أفغاني جديد، تخاطبه القوة الناعمة الجديدة، ومنظمات غير حكومية ستسارع لإيجاد دور لها، وعلى الوعود للشعب بحياة رغيدة وكماليات استهلاكية وافرة، واقتصاد سوق، ووسائل اتصال وتكنولوجيا عصرية، ولكن بعضاً آخر، لا يزال يحمل بإيمان ويتوارث ثقافة آلاف السنين ـ الثقافة الأفغانية، حيث يولد الطفل ليكون مقاتلاً، ويرى في القتال أسلوب حياة، وفي الجهاد فرض عين، وأنّ الله سوف يعطيهم ما يرضونه، وأنّ الآخرة خير لهم من الأولى.

خلاصة القول، إنّ حرباً قد انتهت في تلك البلاد، لتبدأ حرب أخرى، شيء يشابه العراق في مرحلة سيّئ السمعة بريمر ومن تلاه، سيكون في أفغانستان من ينفخ في نار الفتنة ويمارس فساداً في السياسة وفي الاقتصاد، والأهمّ أنّ الحزب المنتصر أيضاً سيكون عليه دفع ثمن السلطة وأعبائها، وثمن اختلاف وتباين الرؤى، ربما بما يؤثر على وحدته وتماسكه، ويعرّضه لحرب داخلية مع ذاته إضافة إلى حربه مع المكوّنات الأفغانية الأخرى.

الحرب الخارجية ـ العالمية انتهت في تلك البلاد، ولكن حروباً مقبلة على الطريق لن تجعل من أفغانستان بلداً مطمئناً في القريب، وها هو أحمد شاه مسعود الابن، قد أخذ يحشد ويعبّئ في وادي بنشير، معقل والده الشهير أثناء الحرب الأفغانية ـ السوفيتية، وهو ليس بقائد سهل وإنما لديه تجربته وخبرته وسلاحه ومصادر الدعم التي ورث بعض منها عن والده الراحل، وأستذكر هنا مقولة الجنرال حميد غول رئيس الاستخبارات العسكرية الباكستانية الأسبق: إنّ الشعب الأفغاني وخاصة البشتون لا يعيشون سلاماً داخلياً إلا في حالة الحرب الخارجية التي توحّدهم، ولكنهم فور انتهائها يعودون إلى قتالهم الداخلي.

تذكر الحالة الأفغانية الطالبانية، بملحمة الشاعر الإيطالي دانتي (الكوميديا الإلهية) إذ يتقاسم قادتها مراحل الملحمة الثلاث، منهم من كان نصيبه في الجحيم ومنهم من كانت له الجنة وأكثرهم من عاش في المطهر.

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*سياسي فلسطيني مقيم في الكفير ـ جنين ـ فلسطين المحتلة

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

Afghanistan: A Lesson to Be Learned by America’s Friends and Enemies

 22 Aug 2021

Afghanistan: A Lesson to Be Learned by America’s Friends and Enemies

By Mohammad Youssef

The shocking abrupt US withdrawal from Afghanistan after twenty years of occupation has caused a series of reactions all over the world from friends and enemies alike.

US friends were foremost shocked for the American miscalculations and their easy renouncing of their Afghani allies. US enemies were happy for the US bitter defeat and discovered again how shallow, arrogant and shortsighted Americans are.

A month and a half ago US president joe Biden informed his people of the coming withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan promising them that this withdrawal would be “secure and orderly”, he further assured them and the world that Taliban takeover of the country would be unlikely, boasting that the well-trained, well-equipped Afghani forces that count over three hundred thousand would run the country and defeat Taliban who are poorly equipped and barely count 75000.

The recent developments have proven Biden wrong on all counts.

After twenty years of American occupation and heavy involvement in Afghanistan. More than 2,300 soldiers killed, more than 20,000 wounded, hundreds of thousands of Afghani people wounded or killed and two trillion US dollars spent there, the collapse was so sudden and almost the whole country fell into Taliban hands again.

Many lessons should be drawn from this significant event.

First, the US administration proves again and again that the only established policy it has for every world problem is military solution that ends always in a tragic failure.

Second, what signifies US policies all over the world is their complete detachment from morality and reality they further lack common sense and any relation with rational thinking or planning.

Third, the magnitude of US failure in Afghanistan is stunning, surprising and rather shocking, it reflects the typical American political culture of not respecting or at least trying to understanding other people’s culture.

Fourth, instead of investing in infrastructure and building friendship and trust with people, the US policy adopts a policy of sanctions and punishment, thus exacerbating and complicating people’s life which rises the animosity against them.

Fifth, once they leave a country the US troops never pay respect or attention for those who risked their lives collaborating with them, they just leave them behind without any protection.

Sixth, the US mass media plays a crucial role in misleading people in the US and across the world alike, they are part of the war machine of the American establishment.

Seventh, the US fleeing from Afghanistan has sent a very alarming message to all Washington’s friends all over the region especially in ‘Israel’ where the enemy leaders are questioning the integrity of the US leadership.

Eighth, more important, the US occupation ended with resonating defeat and historical humiliation to the American administration and its policies in the region. This brought back to the forefront the US endless soul of recklessness and adventurism all over the world.

Washington is leaving behind a heritage of blood, cruelty, foolishness, failure and destruction. This is a typical American example of the arrogant imperialism which yields nothing but bloodshed and violence to the targeted countries, and failure and humiliation to the American policy makers.


River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!