Monday, 30 May 2011

Is Erdogan worried about Strategic Relationship with Syria? He should

Erdogan, should worry, Turkey has the same Syrian, religious/ethnic political landscape. So, if Syria falls, Turkey could be NEXT. If Syria survive (IT will), Turkey would lose everything build via the Syrian Gate.

In Arabic we say in Arabic, those who have a Glass home should avoid throwing stones on neighbors.

It's not about democracy, it has never been.

It's about dividing the divided,

"As the Arab Spring enters its fourth month, it faces challenges but also presents opportunities. Despite setbacks in Libya, Yemen, and Syria, the democratic wave has already begun to change the Middle East’s political landscape." Thus said Erdogan's advisor who ignored or failed to see the RISKS so far presented by "Arab Spring", a civil war in Libya, and may be in Yemen,

To stop loss, yesterday Erdogan called Assad to express keenness on Strategic Relationship with Syria.



I am not saying that Erdogan stands behind smuggling arms to Syrian "outlaws" but according to Ibrahim Kalin his senior adviser, "Over the last decade, Turkey has developed different types of relationships with the countries of the Middle East, targeting improved relations with both governments and the public. Indeed, Turkey is probably the only country that has been able to promote relations at the two levels in the Arab world."

Translating, Kalin's statement on Syria, Turkey developed improved relations with Exiled Muslim Brothers, and ignored its “Zero Problem” Foreign Policy, with its neighbors, and main gate to Arab world. Muslim Brothers are now meeting in Istanbul instead of London.

Blinded by the 4 months old " Arab Spring ", and despite the setbacks, Kalin, is still hoping the Syrian unrest may present an opportunity for Turkey. What opportunity??

The opportunity to engage Muslim brothers, and their offspring, Hamas, "publicly and directly, as Turkey has done, with USA and europe. After all, they are now part of the emerging political order in the Arab world"
He concluded "A democratic and prosperous Arab world will make Turkey’s standing in the region stronger, not weaker."

Again, what opportionity, what change, and what political landscape??


Let us connect the Dots


After Jully war , 2006, Saad El-Hariri predicted "In a week, two weeks, when it starts raining, and the economy's crumbling. Then people will be annoyed with Hizballah." Even the Shi'a will begin looking around and realizing that "their society has been pulverized," and while "it's fine and dandy to have 10,000 dollars, where are the jobs?! What will they eat?!" Plus, it will be hard to encourage any kind of investment in Lebanon as long as Hizballah remains armed and dangerous."


Saad urged that now is a golden opportunity for the international community to "weaken" Bashar. The USG needs a clear, new policy to isolate Syria. "My belief is, if you don't isolate Syria, if you don't put a blockade, they will never change." By subduing Syria, you remove Iran's main bridge for playing the troublemaker in Lebanon and Palestine. "If you weaken Syria," Saad suggested, "then Iran has to work alone." The Saudis and other Arab states have all had enough of young Bashar, according to Saad, and no longer want to try a conciliatory approach to the Syrian regime. After Bashar's recent speech threatening civil war in Lebanon, they are no longer interested in "talking" with Damascus. Saad said he had hear this directly from the Saudis, and that Prince Bandar is delivering this message in Washington now (Comment. It is also interesting that Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal made similar comments, but about Iran specifically, during an 8/22 meeting with Ambassador Oberwetter, as reported in reftel. End Note).


"The Saudis and Egyptians have turned. Look into that." When Talwar asked what the United States could do to increase the pressure on Syria, Saad suggested forging ahead on the special tribunal with international character on the Hariri assassination and organizing international sanctions on Syria. "


"Getting a little more animated as the conversation continued, Saad argued that the Syrian regime needs to be gotten rid of entirely. "

"If the regime were to fall in Syria, who would be there to fill in the vacuum?..., Saad suggested that the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, in partnership with ex-regime figures like Abdel Halim Khaddam and Hikmet Shehabi ("though he's still close to the regime"), could step into the void. Saad claimed that the Syrian Brotherhood is similar in character to Turkey's moderate Islamists. "

"They even support peace with Israel." Saying that he maintains close contact with Khaddam (in Paris) and Syrian Muslim Brotherhood leader-in-exile Ali Bayanuni (in London), Saad urged us to "talk to Bayanuni. See what he's like. You will see wonders."

Let us check the wonders of of Bayanuni, and the new middle east landscape:
  • "The head of the Syrian MB, Ali Sadreddine al-Bayanouni, told Reuters that should the MB reach power in Syria, it would be ready to open peace talks with Israel."
  •  "if talks lead to withdrawal from the occupied lands and grant Palestinians their rights, then where would be the problem? There is no problem."
  • "The Reuters report contrasted Bayanouni's statement with Hamas' position which does not even recognize Israel. The implication is that the Syrian MB may not necessarily share the position of the Palestinian Islamists (Hamas) or Egypt's for that matter
  • Update: Bayanouni followed up on his interview and denied saying that his group is ready to assume power in Syria. Instead he called for a national coalition government.He did repeat however that in principle his group does not reject restoring Syrian rights from Israel through negotiations and a political settlement, provided the other side is willing.
  • In his denial he followed the steps of Egypt Brothers, who boycotted last friday demonstrations. I wonder if they after riding the revolution's tide may show us their wonders????
The So-called "Syrian revolution"  after failure to atract the Syrian masses, turned into violance, and failed again. They failed in both attracting or dividing the Syrian army.

What's left??


The last card:"humanitarian intervention",


Most likely, Russia shall not burn it's fingers as it did in Libya, instead it will burn the zionist's last card, so there would be no "No Fly Zone"

Moreover, the fall of Syria, would pave the way towards the fall of Tehran, and that would be the last step in changing the "World's Political Landscape". Therefore, I claim both Russia, and China, would do everything to keep Resistance Axis a main player in the "Middle East’s political landscape" fighting both Condi's new middle east and new world order


Again, Erdogan should be worried, and should at least change his political advisors. Palestine, the resistance option is the only way to "make Turkey’s standing in the region stronger" 
Ask  Ahmadinejad , Mubarak, and Bashar.
Palestine saved Bashar, and kicked the ass of Pharaoh.

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President al-Assad Receives Call from Erdogan Expressing Turkey's Keenness on Strategic Relationship with Syria
May 28, 2011
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The underground diplomacy
DAMASCUS, (SANA)- President Bashar al-Assad on Friday received a phone call from Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey expressing Turkey's keenness on the strategic relationship between the two friendly countries and people and preserving the level of this relationship and developing it in the future.
President al-Assad and Erdogan discussed the situation in the region and in Syria, with Premier Erdogan stressing Turkey's standing by Syria and keenness on its security, stability and unity.


Both sides reiterated determination to continue the warm and transparent relationship between their countries and upgrading it in the interest of both countries and people and the region as a whole.


Last March, President al-Assad received a phone call from Erdogan.


During the call, Erdogan affirmed the solid Syrian-Turkish relations, lauding the reformative decisions taken by the Syrian leadership and stressing Turkey’s support to Syria.


Turkey and the Arab Spring


(Ibrahim Kalin is senior adviser to the prime minister of Turkey. | DP-News- Project Syndicate)
Ankara – As the Arab Spring enters its fourth month, it faces challenges but also presents opportunities. Despite setbacks in Libya, Yemen, and Syria, the democratic wave has already begun to change the Middle East’s political landscape.


The national reconciliation agreement in Palestine between Fatah and Hamas, signed in Egypt on May 3, is one of the major results of this sea change. Other substantial developments are certain to follow – and Turkey stands to gain from them. Indeed, the Arab Spring strengthens rather than weakens Turkey’s position in the Arab world, and vindicates the new strategic thrust of Turkish foreign policy.
Turkey’s policy of engaging different governments and political groups in the Arab world has transformed Middle Eastern politics. Turkish officials have stated on various occasions that change in the Arab world is inevitable and must reflect people’s legitimate demands for justice, freedom, and prosperity. Moreover, change must occur without violence, and a peaceful transition to a pluralist democracy should be ensured.


Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sought to achieve this in Libya before the ongoing fighting in that country broke out. Erdoğan’s quiet, behind-the-scenes diplomacy sought to ensure a peaceful transition to a post-Qaddafi era. This gradualist approach complements Turkey’s principled position on the need for reform in the Arab world, including Syria, with which Turkey shares a 900-kilometer border.


Over the last decade, Turkey has developed different types of relationships with the countries of the Middle East, targeting improved relations with both governments and the public. Indeed, Turkey is probably the only country that has been able to promote relations at the two levels in the Arab world.


This engagement policy has paid off in several ways, in the process raising Turkey’s profile in the region. Arab intellectuals, activists, and youth leaders of different political inclinations have taken a keen interest in what some describe as the “Turkish model.” Turkey’s stable democracy, growing economy, and proactive foreign policy have generated growing appreciation of the country’s achievements, which has augmented its “soft power” in the region.


This is reflected in the Arab world’s lively debate about how Turkey has been able to reconcile Islam, democracy, and economic development. That debate, more importantly, is about how Arab countries should restructure themselves in the twenty-first century. The growing gap between governments and people in the Arab world has become an unsustainable deficit – a point that has gained new significance as the Turkish experience has gained greater salience in these countries.


As the Arab Spring unfolds at different speeds in different countries, Turkey continues to urge Arab governments to undertake genuine reform. Arabs deserve freedom, security, and prosperity as much as any other people, and Turkey stands to gain from a democratic, pluralist, and prosperous Arab world.


A democratic era promises to give the Arab world a chance to be the author of its own actions. It will also enable Arabs to develop a new paradigm for relations with the West, based on equality and partnership – a position that Turkey has come to symbolize.


Finally, Turkey’s policy of engaging various actors in the Middle East – repudiated by some as controversial, extreme, and even terrorist – has played a significant role in bringing at least some of these forces into mainstream politics. Given the new political realities in Egypt, Tunisia, and the Palestinian territories, as well as in Lebanon, Libya, and elsewhere, the more important of these actors are no longer secret or illegal organizations.


Simply put, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, the Nahda Movement in Tunisia, and Hamas in Palestine will all play important and legitimate roles in the political future of their respective countries. This means that Americans and Europeans will need to engage these groups publicly and directly, as Turkey has done. After all, they are now part of the emerging political order in the Arab world,


A democratic and prosperous Arab world will make Turkey’s standing in the region stronger, not weaker.
River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian

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