Via FridayLunch-Club
Cook at the CFR;
"...The Palestinians remain divided, that's been the situation since the January 2006 elections [in which Hamas won the majority of seats in the Palestinian parliament] and the June takeover in 2007 of Gaza by Hamas. So the Palestinian leadership is clearly divided. They are reluctant to go to these direct talks.
It took an enormous amount of diplomatic and political pressure to get them to agree to these talks. That's one of the reasons why Mubarak and Abdullah are going to be there, because the Palestinians fear that if they get involved in these direct talks they will be vulnerable to attacks from within both the factions that support the Palestinian Authority, mainly Fatah, but more importantly, they'd be vulnerable to political attacks from Hamas, because the negotiations rarely lead anywhere. And from the Palestinian perspective, the Israelis do everything possible to delegitimize their position while at the same time claiming that they're interested in direct negotiations.
This is political poison for Abbas. He has no real domestic political incentive to go forward with these talks. His only incentive is not wanting to embarrass President Obama....
.... If the Palestinians maintain the position that extending the so-called moratorium on settlement building is the litmus test for continuing these talks, it is quite likely that you're not going to have talks after this initial round. Lieberman is an important player in coalition politics, although I don't believe he's an important player necessarily in Israeli policymaking. He's been sidelined by Netanyahu and his team, but of course, Lieberman can bolt the coalition over an issue like this, and can create political instability in Israel. The Israeli cabinet is engaging in intense discussions about whether to formally extend this moratorium. Perhaps they're searching for some sort of formula that will satisfy the different factions within the coalition, but this is a very, very difficult situation that the Israelis find themselves in. And it may end up being a deal breaker...."
Posted by G, Z, or B at 2:15 PM
River to Sea
Uprooted Palestinian
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