"This is not Egypt. It is just not!"

Tuesday 2 August 2011

"This is not Egypt. It is just not!"

Via FLC

"... There are several factors the Syrian revolt against Assad is likely to be protracted and bloody -- and international action somewhat limited, analysts said. U.S. economic and political leverage in Syria is limited and effective action will require working with others who have deeper ties, such as Turkey and the European Union. Meantime a "Libya hangover" has been effect in the United Nations, meaning Security Council members such as Russia, China and India have been so far unwilling to push forward a resolution condemning Assad's brutality they fear could be used by western states, as in Libya, to justify international military intervention.
"What we see in Syria is the confluence of two things: we see the enormous complexity on the ground in that is Syria, and that goes with a very messy, complicated transition," said Mona Yacoubian, a Syria and Lebanon expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace, in an interview with the Envoy. "That coincides with certainly on the part of the U.S. very limited leverage inside the country. This is not Egypt. It is just not. We don't have the [ties to] people in the [Syrian] military, we don't have deep connections to the business elites."...
"I think the U.S. position -- which is essentially focused on limiting the violence, and also limiting the perception of America's role [there] -- is a very smart one," said Scott Lasensky, a Middle East expert at the United States Institute of Peace. That focus "maintains [international] consensus."
More importantly, "It allows for the forces of change in Syria to build, because if you can eliminate worst acts of violence and repression and allow the demonstrations to continue, build and grow, that puts the Syrians at the center of the story, and allows the pressure to build against the regime over time," Lasensky continued.
Some analysts suggested the United States work with the European Union to pursue energy sanctions on Syria.
I would expect "to see more movement on energy sanctions this week" come out of Washington, D.C. Tabler (WINEP/AIPAC) said. "We can target Syrain energy exports and finance mechanisms, and not target refined imports. We want Assad to run down his checking account."..."