Via Friday-Lunch-Club
"...According to Israeli estimates, Iran is 13-15 years “overdue” in acquiring nuclear weapons..."
"...If we accept these assessments, they are obviously good news for anyone who does not want Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. It is also good news that such assessments are being voiced publicly by senior Israelis, because they seem to make it less likely that the possible action that has posed the greatest risk of severely damaging U.S. interests in the Middle East—an Israeli military attack on Iran—will happen anytime soon. But given the divergence between these recent pronouncements and the alarmist statements about Iran we have become accustomed to hearing from Israel, how can one explain the remarks by Yaalon and Dagan? I can think of a half dozen possible explanations.
One is that they are more or less straightforward reflections of careful, straightforward analysis by Israeli experts of the actual state of the Iranian program. Not every statement by a public official needs to be a disingenuous manipulation of the facts in pursuit of a policy objective....
A second possible explanation is that the remarks are self-serving for both the professionals and the policymakers, in the sense that they were taking credit for slowing down the Iranian program, whether through software worms or other means. For Mossad in particular ...
Third, what we are hearing may be well-reasoned thoughts from Israelis who have come to realize that resorting to military force against Iran would damage Israel's interests along with the interests of others. And thus they are trying to take the military option off Israel's table...
A fourth explanation is that Israeli leaders have come to realize that the alarmism and saber-rattling about Iran were having deleterious effects on Israel's society and public confidence, ...
A fifth explanation is that the Israelis were trying to show that sanctions against Iran are working...
The sixth possible explanation is the one that is most in line with the virtuosic manipulation of the U.S. political process that we have come to expect from Israel. It is a matter of timing. Israeli policymakers would prefer a U.S. military strike on Iran over an Israeli strike, because given U.S. capabilities it would be more operationally feasible and effective. But Israelis do not see this happening under the current U.S. administration. So they already are looking ahead to January 2013 and a hoped-for new administration that would be more to their liking and more likely to do Israel's bidding. Israel is saving more of its rhetorical and lobbying ammunition on the Iranian nuclear issue for when it is most likely to have the desired effect, a couple of years from now.............Probably the sixth and final explanation best represents the thinking of the Netanyahu government...."
Posted by G, Z, or B at 10:12 AM
IAEA' Amano: 'We don't know that Iran wants the bomb'
(...)SPIEGEL: According to the most recent estimates, Iran is only a year away from building a bomb.
Amano: I'm not so sure about that. Despite all unanswered questions, we cannot say that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons program.
SPIEGEL: Because you lack the conclusive evidence, the "smoking gun?"Amano: That's not my choice of words. I'm talking about unanswered questions. What purpose do components for a highly explosive ignition system serve? What are neutron triggers needed for? Are there nuclear developments that suggest a military background? Iran must provide clarity on these issues. That's the point.(...)
SPIEGEL: Israel, which feels particularly threatened by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has demonstrated, most recently in September 2007, that it does not shy away from military strikes. In Syria, an ally of Iran, Israel destroyed a complex of buildings where plutonium was presumably being produced. Do you have any new information about Syrian President Bashar Assad's nuclear plans?
Amano: Syria isn't letting our inspectors into the country to examine this location in detail. In a letter to the Syrian foreign minister in November, I was critical of his country's cooperation. We also need progress in this case. And then we have a second problem with Syria: The research reactor in Damascus is under IAEA supervision, and we conduct routine inspections there. We have now found traces of uranium from a source unknown to us, which is something we also want to know more about. We have been given two explanations to date, but we don't consider them sufficient. Even if it's only a matter of a few grams, we still want to know where they came from and why they are there..."
Posted by G, Z, or B at 9:41 AM
Israel & supporters starting to grudgingly accept the US Intelligence Community' Iran 'Estimates'..
"... Mr. Dagan's estimates also coincide with recent U.S. intelligence community analysis that states Iran has run into difficulties in acquiring the refined equipment it needs to produce more centrifuges and to run the machines properly...." (from the Washington Times!)
Posted by G, Z, or B at 9:47 AM
River to Sea
Uprooted Palestinian
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