Via Friday-Lunch-Club
Oxford Analytica: Excerpts:
"Riots in Maan on January 4 and clashes following the University of Jordan student union election in December highlight the rising number of violent incidents in Jordan and raise questions about future stability. The disgruntlement of tribes and Jordanians of Palestinian origin is increasing as regime policies accentuate social and political cleavages and fail to integrate constituencies....
Tribes and government. Indigenous tribes have traditionally been the backbone of support for the regime, and the manpower for security forces and state bureaucracy. In its bid to nurture its power base, curb political Islamism and dampen calls for political reform, the regime continues to support tribalism, despite its fragmentation of national identity into competing parochial loyalties. Tribalism serves as a shortcut for employment, university enrolment and even obtaining medical services, and tribal sentiment has been rising....Decades of pampering and patronage by the state have had destabilising political effects that are now surfacing. Competition for patronage has fostered corruption, favouritism, intra-tribal hostility and hostility towards Jordanians of Palestinian origin whose improving economic prospects threaten tribes who fear Palestinians' final resettlement in Jordan. Coupled with worsening economic conditions in an already aid-dependent state, weak local government institutions and a diminishing ability to placate tribal leaders, the government's approach is finally backfiring as members develop a duty to their tribes that overrides their duty to obey political authority.
Youth engagement. Under 30s make up 70% of the population. Yet youth are denied a political voice. To curb the influence of Islamists and stave off dissenting views to peace with Israel, the government has tightened its grip on universities and de-politicised campuses -- leaving a cultural and political vacuum to be filled by tribal activism.... Sectarianism and tribal bigotry have fuelled a number of violent incidents among students....
National identity. Rather than being a moderating force, the concept of national unity is highly problematic. Jordanians of Palestinian origin suffer from a significant amount of discrimination affecting their sense of belonging: The government's failure to integrate Palestinians impedes their active citizenship and the newly elected parliament is the least representative yet of Jordanians of Palestinian origin....... December's football match clashes reveal the simmering division between the two groups, .... The government continues to deal with such clashes as a security rather than political issue, with a lack of transparency. ....
Deficient political reform. In November's election, only 67 of the 764 candidates represented political parties. The regime still pays lip service to political reform but this has translated into few concrete changes. While it insists on elections to keep a semblance of democracy, the curbing of civil liberties under various laws and a prevalent security culture have weakened civic action and pushed citizens away from political action towards decisions based on kinship. In the absence of fully developed political parties, the one-man one-vote system and other policies entrench tribalism to the detriment of democratic development.
Outlook. Violent incidents are likely to increase, although will remain sporadic and isolated without a unified agenda or political demands. The government is likely to respond through increased security measures and a possible scaling back of civil liberties. .... King Abdallah is focusing on economic reform as a substitute for meaningful political reform, and for the sake of Jordan's reputation, he is likely to exert every effort to contain the violent incidents quietly. Yet such incidents and the way the government deals with them chip away at its credibility and perceived ability to control its citizens; the regime can no longer claim that Jordan is a bastion of stability. "
Posted by G, Z, or B at 11:59 AM
Uprooted Palestinian
No comments:
Post a Comment