"Let's look at the position of the pro-U.S. forces in the Middle East today ..."

Via Friday-Lunch-Club

"... Let's look at the position of the pro-U.S. forces in the Middle East today:

* Tunisia is in the throes of a serious socio-economic upheaval that threatens to spread to many other M.E. countries that, like it, are important to US power projection in the region.

* Think Egypt, in particular.

* The Israeli government continues not only to keep Gaza's 1.5 million people locked in an impermeable and quite inhumane cage but also to viciously knock the guts out of Palestinian East Jerusalem and thus out of any hope that a viable "two-state" solution can be salvaged from the current mess of repression in Palestine... And Washington is doing nothing-- nothing!-- about any of that. Even its long-lasting fig-leaf of pretense that there is something called a peace "process" has now been shredded to nothingness. For far too long, there has been no progress towards any form of a just and sustainable peace. Now, there is not even the pretense of any "process."

* The U.S. has now definitively lost the campaign to have any lasting influence over the government in Baghdad; and it is in serious trouble further east in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

*Egypt is not the only country, central to U.S. interests in the region, where an aged long-time ruler is now well into his 9th decade on earth and starting to falter, physically. Think Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia is particularly germane to the situation in Lebanon, since it was the Saudi-Syrian entente of early 2008 that allowed Lebanon to recover from the prolonged political crisis that preceded that date.

Interesting that the resigning opposition MP's in Lebanon made a point of saying that the pro-Hariri bloc ad foiled the wishes of both the Syrians and the Saudis, and that the Hizbullah media reported it that way too.

Where is Saudi King Abdullah? He has had several serious medical procedures recently. Who has (?former) PM Saad Hariri been listening to as he has made his decisions of recent weeks?

... If Nasrallah and his friends in Tehran (especially Supreme Leader Khamenei) indeed think the time has come to give the western house of cards in the Middle East a little nudge in Beirut to see what happens, the fallout from this could well end up extending far beyond Lebanon's tiny confines.

Well, I have been planning a short visit to Beirut next month, anyway. It should be an interesting time to be there...."

Posted by G, Z, or B at 4:05 PM

"...There is no permanent fix to the Lebanese crisis..."

"... So what we have is the Lebanese political actors lacking any sovereignty — in other words, whatever their dispute is, it has to be resolved by a negotiation settled by the regional and international players. In the case of Iran, it is backing the most powerful element in the country, i.e. Hezbollah, which not only is a political movement and has a wide social presence, it also possesses a military wing — which, by the way is far more powerful than the Lebanese armed forces. That gives Iran a very powerful tool in terms of being able to project power. The Iranians can use Hezbollah against Israel, as we saw in the 2006 war, which undermines U.S. interests in the region. Therefore, Iran has a tool with which to play with and to be able to shape American behavior and extract concessions.
Ultimately, there is no permanent fix to the Lebanese crisis. It’s a cyclical issue which will crop up every now and then because Lebanon ultimately is a chessboard for regional and international players to use in terms of pursuing their political objectives."

Posted by G, Z, or B at 8:59 AM

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian