"Assad's fall constitutes the first important defeat for the West's enemies ..."

Via FLC

"So far, the wave of protests jolting the Middle East has targeted mostly regimes friendly to the United States. With the prominent exception of Libya, a country that is rather peripheral to the region's political life, the uprisings of the Arab Spring have weakened Washington's friends and, consequently, brought satisfaction to its foes... 

Much like Egypt, Syria stands at the heart of the Middle East. But unlike Cairo, Damascus has remained a very large thorn in America's side for decades. Run by one of the world's most repressive regimes, Syria plays a key role as Iran's top ally and maintains warm ties with groups classified as terrorist organizations by the U.S. State Department. Syria is one of just four countries listed by the U.S. as state sponsors of terrorism.

 The uprising against Assad's rule has already sent waves of anxiety through the regime in Iran and among the leadership of Hezbollah in Lebanon... 

Until now, protests in the Arab-speaking world have taken a toll on America's strategic position in the region. If the future brings democratic, Western-friendly governments, Washington could regain the lost ground and solidify relationships in the region.

But for now, the fact is that the U.S. lost its most important Arab ally, former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. In addition, the regime in Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet, has suppressed a mostly-Shiite uprising with methods that have eroded its legitimacy. In Yemen, another important U.S.-friendly regime is teetering, while in Jordan, King Abdullah, a stalwart partner, is also under pressure. The list goes on ......

Assad played America masterfully. To this day, influential U.S. politicians, notably Sen. John Kerry, believe the Syrian president is a reformer ... Whether or not Assad's fall would help Washington depends, of course, on who replaces him....

It is impossible to know with certainty if the Syrian regime will fall and, if it does, what would come next. What is certain is that Assad will not walk away from power the way Mubarak did. He is visibly trying to implement a two-pronged strategy of conciliatory measures and harsh suppression of the uprising, which could prove successful...  

In the end, however, if the Assad regime falls, there is a very real possibility that it could produce a net benefit for Washington and the West -- provided the Syrian dictatorship is replaced by a responsible government. That could ease many of the problems that have beset the West in the Middle East and constitute the first important defeat for the West's enemies since the start of the Arab Spring."

Posted by G, M, Z, or B at 10:03 AM

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