Cairo - Where will the votes of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Khairat al-Shater, Salafi Hazem Abu Ismail, and former spy chief Omar Suleiman now go?
The question is at the forefront of the Egyptian electorate’s minds following the High Elections Commission’s refusal of the applications of these three presidential candidates who had caused so much controversy.
They were joined in their dismissal by seven others, most prominently formerly jailed democracy activist Ayman Nour, the Ghad el-Thawra (Revolutionary Tomorrow) party’s candidate.
With the "big three" out of the way, there are now three remaining candidates most likely to capture the country’s top post, namely Amr Moussa, Abul Fotouh, and Hamdeen Sabahi.
Moussa’s appeal is grounded in the fiery speeches he made against Israel during his time as Mubarak's foreign minister.
Rats desert a sinking ship, fools ride |
The MB's alternative candidate and spokesperson Mohammed Mursi, head of the Freedom and Justice Party, lacks charisma and is largely unknown among Egyptian voters.
Some even threatened suicide bombings to avenge his disqualification and force the Commission to retract its decision.
Supporters of the Salafi sheikh commented on the issue on related Facebook pages.
One of them wrote: “By God we will carry out the biggest suicide missions for Sheikh Hazem Abu Ismail. The first suicide attack will be at the interior ministry.”
It is difficult to guess which candidate Salafi voters will back instead of Abu Ismail, said Dia Rashwan, an expert from the Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.
The second group of voters is smaller and will be spread among the remaining candidates, including the two Islamists mentioned above.
Some voters will look to non-Islamists, including liberals, nationalists, and leftists.
A third group will probably not vote – in protest and resignation – due to the disqualification of their favorite candidate.
“the candidate of undecided voters,” |
Expert analysis does differ widely from opinion polls conducted by the official Al-Ahram Center in Egypt on a weekly basis.
Some voters' second choices have also been disqualified.
The survey shows that 25 percent of Abu Ismail voters considered al-Shater as their second choice, while 27 percent of al-Shater's supporters chose Abu Ismail as their backup candidate.
The statistics again point to the fact that the Islamist groups have never considered the alternative MB candidate, Muhamed Mursi, as a viable champion against Moussa and Abul Fotouh.
The third main option in the presidential elections now set for 23 and 24 May is Hamdeen Sabahi.
Experts see him as “the candidate of undecided voters,” and the best representative of the poor and the peasants, but his campaign suffers from a lack of funding.
This article is an edited translation from the Arabic Edition.
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of this Blog!
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