Sunday, 25 November 2012

War on Gaza: Winners and Losers

Egyptian Foreign Minister Mohammed Kamel Amr announced on Wednesday that a truce had been agreed between "Israel" and the Palestinian Resistance..

 "It will come into effect at nine Cairo time, 1900 GMT," Amr said during a joint press conference with his US counterpart Hillary Clinton.

In parallel, he stressed that "these efforts ... have resulted in understandings to cease fire and restore calm and halt the bloodshed that the last period has seen."

For her part, Clinton said:

"The United States welcomes the agreement today for a ceasefire. In the days ahead, the United States will work with partners in the region to consolidate this progress."
Hours after a blast rocked the Zionist entity's capital, Tel Aviv near the War ministry, "Israeli" Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office claimed he was prepared to give truce a chance.

"A short while ago Netanyahu spoke with US President Barack Obama and agreed to his recommendation to give a chance to an Egyptian proposal for a ceasefire and thereby give an opportunity for the stabilization of the situation and a calming of it," said a statement.
Moreover, the White House reiterated that "Israel" maintains the right to defend itself."

According to the Egyptian distributed text: "Israel" shall stop all hostilities in the Gaza Strip land sea and air, including incursions and targeting of individuals.

Moreover, all Palestinian factions shall stop all operations from the Gaza Strip against "Israel", including rocket attacks and all attacks along the border.

Opening the crossings and facilitating the movement of people and transfer of goods and refraining from restricting residents' free movements and targeting residents in border areas......

Gaza after the Pillar of Cloud will not be the same Gaza before.

According to Anis Naqash, whether cease-fire came into effect or not, the Palestinian rockets that fell on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, has changed a lot of equations and post-war situation in Gaza can't be restored to what it was before the recent aggression.

According to AnisNaqash,  of «Aman net for Strategic Studies» the consequences of the offensive on Gaza can be devided into two parts.

The military part confirmed the failure of the «Iron Dome»  system which in turn led to the downfall of the theory of Israeli deterrence for missiles, and thus Palestine became the under the fire of the missiles of resistance camp and the lack of the enimy's ability to engage into a ground war, means inability to achieve strategic objectives because of the high cost to be incurred.

The second part, according to Anis, is the political implications regarding the timing and the conditions of the cease-fire and the behavior of the resistance parties in terms of  political orientation and alliances with Arab, regional and global powers.

The Israeli enemy avoided engagement in a ground war because of its heavy cost, while the decision of the resistance in Lebanon was clear: it is not allowed to break the resistance axis, as long as the resistance in Gaza is not in danger, the role of the Lebanese resistance is limited to the political and moral support, but in case the Palestinian resistance became in danger, then all possibilities remain open.

According to Anis, Hezbollah holds the decision to open the Lebanese frontwhile Syria, Iran and «Hezbollah» holds the decision to open Syrian front.  Despite the change of the Egyptian regime», no move is expected on the Egyptian front.  Nevertheless there is a parallel Egyptian front composed of several local and non-local organizations and local non-working to provide support to Gaza with all possibilities, and has already carried out on the border in the Sinai.
The war on caza exposed the Puppet Leaders arming the syrian opposition while on the other hand never dared to send a single bullet to Palestinian resistance...

Naqash expects Doha, after the cease-fire, would invest in the reconstruction of Gaza because a lot of prosperity weaken the resistance. He gives as example how PA transformed former freedom fighters into an army of staff waiting pensions from European countries.
Personally I agree with Anis, it happened in Lebanon, when Arafat used the Gulf petro dollar to corrupt the people and devide his opponents, mainly PFLP.

Professor Hilal Khashan, a political science professor at the American University in Beirut, has a different opinion. 

In his assessment of the role of the resistance in Lebanon, Hezbollah can not open the northern front due internal difference, besides it will not change the reality on the ground in Gaza. 

Hezbollah can help Gaza with weapons and expertise wihout engagement in a battle. But Khashan agrees that ground war was not on the table because of the issue of human losses, and the American veto the U.S. to such an option.

But according to great cartonist Latuff, as illustrated by his Carton posted below, Obama is voting to Bibi

Khashan believes that the Gaza war was an «ambush» set by Obama to Netanyahu (failure to resolve battle through the ground war option wild would be a major political failure for Netanyahu).

Arab Red cresenct known as Arab League
Turkish crocodile tears
According to Khashan the Arab officials visits to Gaza during war was sponsored and their safety was guarateed by U.S., otherwise Israel would have bombed them.
Concerning the role of Egypt supporting the Palestinians, Khashan believes that Cairo despite the change of the regime can't afford neither confront, nor disappoint America. It is insane to expect that Egypt may cancel the Camp David agreement, or may support Gaza militarily, this would be a political suicide for Egypt to get out of bilateral agreements and U.S. aid.

Khashan asserts that «Iran is a major player in the battle of Gaza, Fajr missile was the star of thr war that changed equations drawing the attention that Israel can't hit Tahran and Iranian capabilities have not yet been tested and Israel would not dare to test them because they don't know their extent. Israel does not know much about Iran. There is a lack of information Israel has been unable to renew its spies there.  This applies to Lebanon, Khashan says in response to a question about the possibility of a future war against Lebanon: If in Gaza Israel has failed, how will it succeed in Lebanon?
Brigadier General Elias Hanna, a retired strategic military, said: Israeli now put itself in big trouble. On the one hand, wars can't be won by air force as evidenced by historical experiences. On the other hand, Israel can not allow the Palestinian resistance to possess long-range missile capabilities threatening the national security of the Zionist entity, and the ground war means street war, and this in turn means a long war of attrition.

Hanna excludes openning any other, because Israel drowned in Gaza, proved that Israel is unable to fight a future war, including war with Iran. Hanna also excludes Hezbollah's engagement in war, because of the local and regional complexities. He says «as long as Israel is stuck in Gaza why to get involved. He expects the party would only prepare and monitor the situation ony forehead Gaza first and Syria second.

Hanna explains that the biggest losers from the results of the battle of Gaza will be the President of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas, because he will be just a figurehead in the long run and because Gaza has the combat capability and actual negotiating ability.

Hanna shown pessimism of the future of the Palestinian situation, being subject to marginal deterioration and further divisions. Palestinians are facing the dilemma of fact, if they seek peace, they get a quasi-state. In case of continued resistance, they may not be able to realise the dreamed state. And therefore they face the equation 'loser loser.

As for Egypt, it is both the most embarrassing and influential. Egypt is unable to cancel the Camp David Accords, and can not put pressure on Hamas so as not to repeat the experience of the regime of Hosni Mubarak with Gaza.

Hanna concludes that «Iran will be the biggest gainer of any future scenario. They invest little in Gaza weapons and material support, but in return they get a lot, a lot.

Personally, I believe, the  Blue Sky operation trigered by the assassination of Martyre Jaabari, provided a door for Hamas leadership to retun to resistance camp, but with Clinton confirming that the Truce Agreement enhances the US-Israeli-Egyptian partnership in promoting the "Camp David Accords"!! and with Mishaal hijacking the Freedom fighter's victory, and stressing on his differnces with Iran on Syria, I will not be surprised to see a Hamas-Lahd army in Gaza. 
River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian
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