Israel's
slow-motion collapse
Israel has never been the
military superpower its propaganda claimed it to be, but neither was it a paper
tiger. At the very least, the Israelis did an excellent job triggering
conflicts when it best suited them, they excelled at camouflaging what where
surprise attacks into a "defensive operation", and they always managed to
conceal their real losses. But none of this would have been possible if Israel
did not have at the very least maybe not an "invincible Tsahal", but a credible
and basically competent military.
Even the Israeli withdrawal from
Lebanon in 2000 could (very generously) be interpreted as a choice rather than a
collapse. But all the conflicts Israel has been involved in since that date
have ended in what can only be called abject failures.
In 2006, the Israeli attack and
invasion of Lebanon ended in one of the most humiliating defeats in the history
of warfare: Hezbollah succeeded in defeating Israel's four brigades, three
reserve divisions and entire Air Force and Navy with roughly one thousand second
rate Hezbollah soldiers (the best Hezbollah fighters were all kept north of the
Litani river). Truly, this victory of the Resistance against the Zionist
occupier was a "divine victory" and it changed the whole equation in the Middle
East.
In 2008, the Israelis attacked
Gaza with very mixed results at best. Operation "Cast Lead" lasted three weeks
and it saw a limited land invasion of Gaza. Besides the usual orgy of wanton
violence against the Palestinian population, including the systematic use of
phosphorus bombs against civilians, this assault yielded very little in terms of
tangible results. Gaza had withstood the attack, Gilad Shalit was not liberated
and, worst of all, Hamas not only survived but its "street cred" was vastly
improved. As for Israel, its public image suffered yet another PR disaster.
But still, the Israelis did penetrate inside Gaza from several directions, and
they could claim that they could seriously threaten Hamas.
In the latest Israeli attack on
Gaza, they IDF failed even to do that and this is really devastating for the
IDF's deterrent capability. This time the operation lasted only one week, and
it ended with Palestinians filling the streets of Gaza in a mass demonstration
of joy and gratitude for having so rapidly forced Israel to seek a
ceasefire.
There used to be a time when the
IDF would go all the way to Beirut to hunt down Arafat and when Mossad would go
all the way to Tunis to kill Abu Jihad. Now the IDF
can't even occupy Bint Jbeil right
across its border, and it is afraid to even enter the Gaza Strip. How the
mighty fall indeed...
The consequences of this Israeli
weakness are truly very serious: the Gaza Strip is turning into a safe heaven
for the Palestinians while the siege of Gaza has pretty much lifted since Mursi
took power. Hezbollah in the north, Gaza in the southwest, Mursi and the
Islamic Brotherhood in the south and a Syria turning into a mix of 1970s Lebanon
and 1980s Somalia to the northeast. To the east, of course, there is Jordan, as
loyal to the USA and Israel as ever, but that also might change in the not too
distant future.
Do you remember Condi Rice
predicting the birth of a new Middle-East and Bernard Henri-Levi explaining that
the "Arab Spring" is a good thing for Israel?
In a way, they were probably both
right: a new Middle-East is definitely taking shape, and the Arab Spring is
probably to the advantage of Israel, but only in the short term. The one
thing which neither Rice nor Levi did ever imagine, not in their worst
nightmares, is that nobody in that new Middle-East would fear Israel anymore
whereas Israel would be terrified of everybody.
I am still convinced, more than
ever before, that the days of the Zionist entity are numbered.
The Saker
River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of this Blog!
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