"... why not?..."

Via friday-Lunch-Club

FP/ here

"... in recent conversations concerning this possible shift in the situation in the Middle East with diplomats from several countries in Asia, the greater Middle East, and Latin America, another perceived consequence emerged: There was a universal sense that Israel is becoming more isolated and the United States is becoming more dependent for its regional strategy on Arab states. ... there was a sense that the evolving situation is having the added effect of emboldening the Palestinians.

The predicted result offered up in three separate conversations: that the Palestinians will declare independence unilaterally. And, in the words of one diplomat who is in regular contact with the Palestinians, "much sooner than you might think." .... right now, perhaps more than at any time in recent history, the likelihood of much global pushback seems low.

And frankly, reason even some mainstream American foreign policy specialists with whom I discussed this, why not? Edging up to the point of doing this is very nearly the same as having done it -- waters have been tested, tides have shifted increasingly in their favor. (The Palestinians seem to be using the same technique White Houses use when they float the names of Supreme Court candidates for a few days to see if anyone attacks.)

If there is support and the likelihood of meaningful pushback from anyone other than the Israelis and the United States seems low, why not proceed? The reality is that the vast majority of the world sees this as the Palestinians' right and doesn't care much that the closest recent brushes with a deal on this front involved Israeli concessions and Palestinian intransigence. Some see such a move as a way to move beyond process and to compress and focus negotiations.

Might this just be one of those diplo-rumors du jour? Yes. If it's real could it backfire? Sure ... in fact, it could lead to a flare up with Israel at precisely the worst moment for U.S. and Israeli concerns about Iran. But one would have to believe that there were Palestinian connections to Iranians to see that as something more than a coincidence..."

Posted by G, Z, or B at 3:24 PM

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian