Via FLC
MEPGS: Excerpts:
"The Obama Administration is being extremely cautious in its approach to the upheaval in Syria because it lacks the power to determine a satisfactory outcome. The rocky experience so far in Libya has reinforced this tendency as has, somewhat surprisingly, its success in eliminating Osama bin Laden. As one top US official put it last week, “After bin Laden, if we say someone `must go’, we need to be able to produce.” Other well-placed observers note that the US, unlike other international players would find itself having to shoulder the responsibility, should it, say, press for the ouster of the current Syrian regime.
Other governments, notably France and Saudi Arabia, have also given up on Bashar. The Saudi turn about has particularly impressed top Administration officials. Despite Riyadh’s obvious fear of change in the region, the Saudis have made it clear they are willing, if not eager to see the Alawite dominated regime collapse. This is because their delight at the prospect of Iran’s closest ally failing “trumps their concern about dominos falling, “ is the way one key US official puts it.There is also the sense that more than 1,000 dead, the Syrian regime has passed the point of no return, both at home and abroad. Still, there is an awareness on the part of Administration officials that the outside world does not possess the leverage to force change in Damascus...
The avenues of pressure open to the US are limited. Top US officals say that both the Russians and the Chinese would block any meaningful attempt to impose sanctions at the UN Security Council. There is some hope that economic sanctions imposed by the European Union could have some effect, and talks with Turkey about increasing their pressure are underway but there is little the US could do on its own economically that has not already been done. The best hope, say US officials is that the many Sunnis who have benefited from the Assads’ forty year rule will turn against the regime [Not that they have seen any cracks yet among the Sunni leadership]. This hope is based on what one top official calls the “compact” between Sunni businessmen and the Alawite power structure. “[The Sunnis] received stability and riches in exchange for supporting the current structure,” says one US official. “But now they are getting neither.”Top US officials admit that dealing with problems in Syria, not to mention a host of other trouble spots, has limited the time they can spend on what used to be their number one priority – Iran. Although the many officials in the Intelligence community, State and Treasury Departments whose jobs focus primarily on Iran continue their work unabated [including working with the International Atomic Energy Agency and closing loopholes in economic sanctions], top officials are aware that they have to deal with perception the Administration is preoccupied. And during this period Iran has taken the opportunity to boast of new developments in its march to nuclear self sufficiency.In response US officials first downgrade Iran’s latest claims, including that it is enhancing its enrichment capability with new centrifuges at its previously secret facility near Qom.. “They have been talking that way for four years,” says one senior US official. “They have consistently overstated their capabilities.” Even Capitol Hill critics admit that the Iranians are still at least two years away from achieving complete nuclear capability even if they were to operate at full speed – which thanks in part to outside interference they have been unable to do. Second, US officials say they will soon designate additional companies who have circumvented UN imposed prohibitions on certain kinds of trade with Iran [Although it is unclear whether this will include Chinese companies]. In so doing, they will target Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ operations, in hopes of damaging what is perceived to be the most threatening pillar of the regime. Finally, Congress is expected to pass new, more strident legislation, perhaps by the end of the year.Not only adversaries like Iran and Syria preoccupy policymakers in the Administration. Dealing with erstwhile friends like Yemen, Bahrain and even Israel has often become an exercise in frustration. Yemen’s President Saleh, though hospitalized in Saudi Arabia with wounds caused by a bomb [not a rocket attack, as first reported] planted in the Presidential palace, still appears to be running the show back home via his sons and nephews. US officials note that the army has not splintered and predict that if the Saudis try to prevent Saleh from returning, he is perfectly capable of making enough of an uproar to cause them to back off. One well-placed US official goes so far to give it a 75% chance that Saleh will make it back to Yemen.Bahrain’s Crown Prince, considered the most reform minded member of the royal family was in Washington last week. His visit received mixed reviews. Some US officials saw it merely as a public relations gesture. Others argued that his father, the King, sent him as a way of increasing his stature back home and therefore hopefully enhancing the chances for a fruitful “National Dialogue” scheduled for next month.Another dialogue the Administration is most interested in is with Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s roller coaster visit here last month has left top Administration officials seething. While relations between Netanyahu and President Obama have never been more than cordial, this visit saw them hit an all-time low. While Administration officials admit that the timing of the President’s call for negotiations based on pre-1967 borders [with land swaps] could have been better, the substance could have been worse [Some of Obama’s advisors argued for Jerusalem to be included as subject to negotiation]. But given Netanyahu’s penchant for confrontation with the President even some of those officials most favorably inclined towards Israel have concluded that the current Israeli government, in the words of one such official, “…is the least capable Israel has ever known.”
River to Sea
Uprooted Palestinian
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