Wikileaks: The Egyptians have been wrong on everything Lebanese!

Origin: Embassy Cairo --- Classification: CONFIDENTIAL : LEBANON -------

4.(C) Afifi said that Saad Hariri was in Cairo, and had seen FM Aboul Gheit, and was scheduled to see President Mubarak that day (June 23). "He is in great spirits and is now a statesman," Afifi said. From Cairo, Hariri will go to Riyadh, where Afifi said he expects Hariri will receive "guidance" on formation of a Lebanese government. Hariri told the Egyptians he did not foresee too much difficulty in government formation. Afifi assessed that the Lebanese opposition (of 2009') "may not get the blocking third in the way that they want it," and that Hizballah was focused on a compromise position that would keep the issue of Hizballah arms out of the national dialogue and obtain some kind of assurance that some executive and judicial positions would be designated for opposition members.

5.(C) The major issue of contention, in Afifi's view, is the Hariri tribunal. Hizballah is very worried, .... is seeking some sort of assurance from Saad Hariri on the tribunal, but it was unclear what Hariri could provide. More importantly, Hariri had told the Egyptians that it is "not appropriate to exclude any party" from the investigation.

6.(C) Afifi believed that Hizballah and the opposition will take time to regroup, and will pester the majority, but not in any way that approaches the discord in the run-up to the Doha meeting of May 2008. The bottom line is that the opposition's (2009') coalition is badly fractured, Afifi said. One contingency that concerns the Egyptians is that tension from the tribunal over the short to medium term could be coupled with an Iranian decision to divert attention from its domestic situation through destabilizing actions in Lebanon, or for that matter, Iraq. Afifi commented that Damascus' statement that it "stood beside" Ahmadinejad and the Iranian regime was unwise..."

Posted by G, Z, or B at 7:59 PM

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian