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Assad's 'fighting nerve is steady'
[Reuters]
"... Recent visitors say
the 47-year-old president has taken over day-to-day leadership. They speak of a
self-confident, combative president convinced he will ultimately win the
conflict through military means."He is no longer a president who depends
on his team and directs through his aides. This is a fundamental change in
Assad's thinking," said a pro-Syrian Lebanese politician with close ties to
Assad. "Now he is involved in directing the battle."
Until recently, the
Lebanese politician said, people asked daily who would defect next. But for some
time now there had been no significant military defections.
"The fighting
nerve is steady. The Iranians and the Russians may have helped them. Their
ability to manage daily and control the situation has improved."
The
government has decided to focus its effort on essential areas - the capital
Damascus, the second largest city of Aleppo, and the main highways and
roads....
"Everybody is kind of hypnotized by the issue of whether Bashar is
president or not, whether he is leaving or not," said one Arab official. "I fear
the problem is much bigger than that. The problem is to see how Syria is going
to survive, how the new Syria is going to be born."....
The rebels have so
far failed to sustain gains in the face of superior government firepower. They
have lost many bases that they had won in the suburbs of Damascus and elsewhere.
Frustrated, they seem to have switched tactics to
suicide bombings and hit-and-run attacks.
"Militarily the regime
is more relaxed but from a security position the country is falling apart," said
the pro-Syrian politician."An explosion might happen anywhere, an assassination
might happen, the situation is chaotic and out of control."......
Hopes for
the Brahimi mission are dim given that arms and funds are still flowing to rebel
groups, while Assad's forces are still getting Russian and Iranian
support.
"The Russians and the Iranians are even more robust. They support
them with funds and political support and technical expertise," said the
Lebanese politician.
Despite a collapse in revenues, a halt in oil sales and
tourism income, and a fall in the value of the national currency, the economy
has so far avoided meltdown. But this may only be a temporary respite for a
government spending heavily on its military campaign. Support from Iran, its own
currency collapsing, cannot be relied on indefinitely and the Syrian
government's capacity to withstand economic headwinds is diminishing.
"The
following five or six months will be essential in the battle and not like the
past four or five months that have passed. The Americans would have completed
their election, the Russians will have evolved their position and the situation
in Iran will have crystallized," the Lebanese politician said.
"Until now,
the Arabs have not changed their position, the Americans don't want to be
decisive and the Russians haven't seen one factor that makes them back track one
iota from their position. For the Russians, the matter is bigger than a naval
base in Tartous, they can secure it through negotiations, it is about their role
in the region."
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