Via friday-Lunch-Club
"The Administration is breathing a sigh of relief at the outcome in Egypt. As we have been reporting, throughout the crisis US officials were torn between the competing interests of democracy and stability. President Obama’s instincts were to side unequivocally with the protest movement, but he was held back by caution among his top advisers. All these uncertainties will now be forgotten in light of the fact that the Administration had got the result it wanted: the departure of the Mubarak regime, but in the context of an “orderly transition.” US officials are aware of the magnitude of the task ahead. Principal among these is Defense Secretary Gates whose low-key interventions with his counterparts were crucial.
All US military officers with contacts to the Egyptian military have been instructed to revive these in order to nudge the next stage in the right direction. A key objective will be to minimize prospects for the Muslim Brotherhood. Opinions among US analysts range widely about the nature and objectives of the organization – from relatively benign to implacable hostility. The Administration accepts that the Brotherhood has to have a ‘seat at the table’ but will be trying to build up a strong secular counterweight. The longer-range implications of the events in Egypt and Tunisia are still sinking in.
The two countries drawing most attention are Yemen and Algeria. Both are strong partners with the US on the terrorism front, and in each case US officials are concerned that a change in regime would be less controllable than in Egypt. There is much less concern about Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Contacts with the Israelis have been intense, including with Defense Minister Barak who has been visiting Washington.
Fears that the Israel-Egypt peace treaty would be abrogated have receded. For Obama, the resolution of the Egypt crisis came just in time. With the presentation of his fiscal 2012 budget on February 14th, he will enter a long and potentially bruising confrontation with Congress...."
River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian
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