"... The current "Junta" does not have the margin which was available to Nasser during the 50s ..."

Sunday, 13 February 2011

"... The current "Junta" does not have the margin which was available to Nasser during the 50s ..."

Friday-Lunch-Club

The current moment in Egypt will define the the near future of this country and the whole Middle East. But the complexity of the moment makes it difficult for anyone here to feel reassured. If the main issue now is stability, and it indeed is, that does not make things easier. Stability is a very abstract word. It varies according to the specific situation that calls for it. The specific situation in Egypt now is moving quickly under the pressure of multiple forces.

The main is an awakened population that is confident and determined to participate in the process of shaping the future.

The second is obviously the armed forces which is confident of the popular support and determined to play a role.

But these simple facts are not as simple as they seem. The confidence and determination of the population triggered a wave of strikes among workers and employees of public services. This can very well lead to gradual lack of patience among the Generals who run the ruling military council and gradually encourages them to adopt a tougher line. Part of the the youth who sparked this uprising think they should carry on with their protests to make sure that the Junta - using Col Lang،s word - will abide by the will of the population which can lead to the same effect. The disintegration of the police force may as well help that trend.

These are the issues of the near term. On a longer range the role of the military now will be decisive in providing long term stability. If Nasser is an example, he moved slowly in the span of two years (1952-54) from promising "true democracy" to ousting Gen. Mohamed Naguib (the first president of Egypt) by force and imposing a horrifying police state with him sitting on top. Nasser could do that under the umbrella of major national victories like the treatment to end British occupation. the nationalization of the Suez Canal, and building the Aswan dam etc. This particular police state guaranteed stability for few decades but it is the main culprit of the total collapse of the regime that we have just witnessed.

The current "Junta" does not have the margin which was available to Nasser during the 50s which helped him build a terrifying state apparatus , and if it does, no one wants to see the same results any way of this kind of stability that was built by a police state.

The global context is very different now, and the current "junta" can not offer what is needed and should not be allowed to try simply because that threatens both the stability of Egypt in the long term and the role of the military. Therefore, another immediate task assigned to the military is to stick strictly to a "transitional" role and prepare for its future role as guarantor of the civil state that Egyptians want to build. In other words, it should be the Egyptian version of the Turkish military.